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Coronavirus / COVID-19 : general fact-based reporting
#7426
[mod edit] This is what "let the virus circulate among the non-old people" means:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...g-difficulties
People with learning disabilities have been given do not resuscitate orders during the second wave of the pandemic, in spite of widespread condemnation of the practice last year and an urgent investigation by the care watchdog.
Mencap said it had received reports in January from people with learning disabilities that they had been told they would not be resuscitated if they were taken ill with Covid-19.
The Care Quality Commission said in December that inappropriate Do Not Attempt Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (DNACPR) notices had caused potentially avoidable deaths last year.
DNACPRs are usually made for people who are too frail to benefit from CPR, but Mencap said some seem to have been issued for people simply because they had a learning disability. The CQC is due to publish a report on the practice within weeks.
The disclosure comes as campaigners put growing pressure on ministers to reconsider a decision not to give people with learning disabilities priority for vaccinations. There is growing evidence that even those with a mild disability are more likely to die if they contract the coronavirus.
Although some people with learning disabilities such as Down’s syndrome were in one of four groups set by the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) which the government promised would be offered the vaccine by tomorrow, many were classified lower categories of need and are still waiting.
Mencap said it had received reports in January from people with learning disabilities that they had been told they would not be resuscitated if they were taken ill with Covid-19.
The Care Quality Commission said in December that inappropriate Do Not Attempt Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (DNACPR) notices had caused potentially avoidable deaths last year.
DNACPRs are usually made for people who are too frail to benefit from CPR, but Mencap said some seem to have been issued for people simply because they had a learning disability. The CQC is due to publish a report on the practice within weeks.
The disclosure comes as campaigners put growing pressure on ministers to reconsider a decision not to give people with learning disabilities priority for vaccinations. There is growing evidence that even those with a mild disability are more likely to die if they contract the coronavirus.
Although some people with learning disabilities such as Down’s syndrome were in one of four groups set by the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) which the government promised would be offered the vaccine by tomorrow, many were classified lower categories of need and are still waiting.
Last edited by NewbieRunner; Feb 14, 2021 at 10:18 am Reason: Redacted inappropriate comment
#7427
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: London, Sth Africa or LAS
Programs: VS Silver, BA Blue - finally; but hotels.com Gold :)
Posts: 1,858
Some forecast scenarios for UK
https://www.gridpoint.consulting/blo...-policy-makers
This blog lays out some possible future infection curves based on certain assumptions for the UK Covid situation; together with tweaking the model with possible different government policy options.
Whilst some of the assumptions seem a little optimistic and some a touch pessimistic ... with maybe a missing ingredient over levels of repeat infection for individuals; overall the article does a fair job of illustrating the interacting variables for future infection levels and the risks of another wave. But at the same time suggesting there is now some margin policy makers can build in around hospitalizations (see later graph)
One take away. The vaccination impact for under 18s looks quite a large element of the puzzle. Which I suspect may also become a factor in other countries too.
This blog lays out some possible future infection curves based on certain assumptions for the UK Covid situation; together with tweaking the model with possible different government policy options.
Whilst some of the assumptions seem a little optimistic and some a touch pessimistic ... with maybe a missing ingredient over levels of repeat infection for individuals; overall the article does a fair job of illustrating the interacting variables for future infection levels and the risks of another wave. But at the same time suggesting there is now some margin policy makers can build in around hospitalizations (see later graph)
One take away. The vaccination impact for under 18s looks quite a large element of the puzzle. Which I suspect may also become a factor in other countries too.
#7428
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: LAX
Posts: 3,267
It's surprising that he doesn't mention the Novavax vaccine at all, which is certain to receive a UK EUA imminently. Didn't Boris Johnson just visit the factory that's producing the Novavax vaccine for the UK? Given that Novavax ran a big clinical trial in South Africa too, and demonstrated 60% efficacy at stopping mild/moderate/severe SA variant infections, and he doesn't mention their data at all in his discussion of the South Africa variant...kinda makes me wonder if he simply forgot it. That would blow a rather big hole in the analysis.
#7429
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 286
US cases fall to 64,000, a HUGE drop since last Sunday and the lowest daily total since 10/25.
Cases over Sundays:
1/10: 221,000
1/17: 177,000
1/24: 142,000
1/31: 111,000
2/7: 91,000
2/14: 64,000
Cases over Sundays:
1/10: 221,000
1/17: 177,000
1/24: 142,000
1/31: 111,000
2/7: 91,000
2/14: 64,000
#7431
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Kent, UK
Programs: M&S Elite+
Posts: 3,658
More encouraging news reported from Israel form the BBC. I do not have a link to the source:
Link to full story here
Vaccinations see huge drop in cases, Israel study shows
In one of the biggest real-world studies so far of vaccine effectiveness, Israel’s largest healthcare provider is reporting a 94% drop in symptomatic coronavirus cases among 600,000 people who have been fully vaccinated.
The analysis compares Israelis who have received two doses of the Pfizer-Biontech vaccine with an unvaccinated group of the same size, matched for age and medical history. It reports a result similar to Pfizer’s clinical trials, though the research is preliminary and has yet to be peer reviewed.
The study also seeks to assess how well the vaccine can work against serious illness. Here, the researchers say they believe effectiveness, a week after a second dose, ranges from 91% to 99%. They say a more accurate figure will be available as more time passes after participants’ second jab.
Israel has immunised more than a quarter of its population with two doses. While overall infection rates in the country remain stubbornly high, the number of critically ill over-60s has fallen by a third in recent weeks - the age group were among the first to get jabs from mid to late December.
In one of the biggest real-world studies so far of vaccine effectiveness, Israel’s largest healthcare provider is reporting a 94% drop in symptomatic coronavirus cases among 600,000 people who have been fully vaccinated.
The analysis compares Israelis who have received two doses of the Pfizer-Biontech vaccine with an unvaccinated group of the same size, matched for age and medical history. It reports a result similar to Pfizer’s clinical trials, though the research is preliminary and has yet to be peer reviewed.
The study also seeks to assess how well the vaccine can work against serious illness. Here, the researchers say they believe effectiveness, a week after a second dose, ranges from 91% to 99%. They say a more accurate figure will be available as more time passes after participants’ second jab.
Israel has immunised more than a quarter of its population with two doses. While overall infection rates in the country remain stubbornly high, the number of critically ill over-60s has fallen by a third in recent weeks - the age group were among the first to get jabs from mid to late December.
Last edited by DaveS; Feb 15, 2021 at 11:25 am Reason: Add link
#7432
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: SFO, TPE, HNL
Programs: UA GS 4MM, RCC life member (paid), Marriott Lifetime Titanium, Hyatt Globalist, CLEAR
Posts: 1,824
https://news.yahoo.com/covid-19-case...223500142.html
States risk repeating last summer's mistakes in reopening
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/states...ry?id=75854757
#7433
Join Date: Jun 2004
Programs: BD, DL, UA, AA, Marriott, SPG
Posts: 1,131
Any idea what's causing that?
#7434
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 286
Deaths the last two days have been at 1,100 and 900 so I think those are starting to trend significantly downward. We are down about 1000 deaths a day since 1/27 on the 7 day avg.
Today was the lowest case # since 10/18.
1/11 219,000
1/18 150,000
1/25 152,000
2/1 128,000
2/8 90,000
2/15 52,000
Today was the lowest case # since 10/18.
1/11 219,000
1/18 150,000
1/25 152,000
2/1 128,000
2/8 90,000
2/15 52,000
#7435
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 286
COVID-19 cases are dropping in US, but not because of vaccinations
https://news.yahoo.com/covid-19-case...223500142.html
States risk repeating last summer's mistakes in reopening
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/states...ry?id=75854757
https://news.yahoo.com/covid-19-case...223500142.html
States risk repeating last summer's mistakes in reopening
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/states...ry?id=75854757
I do not believe that behaviors have changed much. I live in two states that have completely different levels of regulation, but anecdotally if anything I see more people out and about in both VA and FL than I did in Dec and early January. Travel has certainly not declined, the TSA has seen multiple days recently with over a million flyers.
As much as we want to think that restrictions and controls significantly change the trajectory of the virus, it is largely playing out the natural course of a pandemic.
#7436
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: LAX
Posts: 3,267
If I had to guess the reason for the large and fast drop in cases it's because of the huge portion of the country who has antibodies, the late fall/early winter spike brought that # up tremendously. The virus does not have as many bodies to circulate in. I'd think a conservative estimate of the # of Americans with antibodies would be 75-100M, then add over 50M who have already had at least one vax shot although there is some overlap.
I do not believe that behaviors have changed much. I live in two states that have completely different levels of regulation, but anecdotally if anything I see more people out and about in both VA and FL than I did in Dec and early January. Travel has certainly not declined, the TSA has seen multiple days recently with over a million flyers.
As much as we want to think that restrictions and controls significantly change the trajectory of the virus, it is largely playing out the natural course of a pandemic.
I do not believe that behaviors have changed much. I live in two states that have completely different levels of regulation, but anecdotally if anything I see more people out and about in both VA and FL than I did in Dec and early January. Travel has certainly not declined, the TSA has seen multiple days recently with over a million flyers.
As much as we want to think that restrictions and controls significantly change the trajectory of the virus, it is largely playing out the natural course of a pandemic.
In the IHME’s most recent briefing, published Friday, the authors write that cases have “declined sharply,” dropping nearly 50 percent since early January.“ Two [factors] are driving down transmission,” the briefing says. “1) the continued scale-up of vaccination helped by the fraction of adults willing to accept the vaccine reaching 71 percent, and 2) declining seasonality, which will contribute to declining transmission potential from now until August.”
#7437
Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,353
I completely agree. And more importantly, so do the best modelers of the pandemic. They forecast that cases would peak in the 3rd week of January and then collapse dramatically. No one else has been able to produce anything remotely accurate like that:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...-are-dropping/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...-are-dropping/
Two factors, however, can slow or even reverse the declines that have begun: 1) the spread of variant B.1.1.7, and 2) increased behaviors that favor COVID-19 transmission. Transmission of B.1.1.7 has been confirmed in at least 10 states and will inevitably spread more widely. This has been incorporated in our reference scenario. Transmission has been contained over the winter through mask wearing, decreased mobility, and avoidance of high-risk settings such as indoor dining. As daily case counts decline and vaccination increases, behaviors are likely to change towards increased risk of transmission.
A lot of that depends on individual behaviors in doing the "low cost" stuff (masks and conscious basic distancing while getting out and enjoying things), so we can reduce the "high cost" restrictions (closing schools and restaurants etc).
#7438
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: LAX
Posts: 3,267
There's news on the SA variant. I don't think the FDA will require a full trial of any tweaked vaccine candidate. That would take too long and negate the whole potential of these next-gen vaccines, which can be "edited" to target the latest variants in a few weeks. They'll probably just take a small sub-sample of the existing trial participants, give them the vaccine, and assess the resulting antibodies through blood samples.
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/...AM6eehawmTMXiE
The biotechnology company Novavax told CNN on Monday that its scientists are testing a new version of its Covid-19 vaccine in the lab that specifically targets the coronavirus variant first identified in South Africa.
As part of this research, the scientists are hoping to determine whether the new vaccine would serve as a booster shot to the original vaccine that has already been developed, or as a bivalent vaccine administered on its own, meaning it would target two strains of the coronavirus, both the original and the variant first identified in South Africa.
Once lab testing is complete, the new vaccine could move to clinical trials – but a timeline is still in the works and the research is still very early.
In a previous announcement in January, the company said, "Novavax initiated development of new constructs against the emerging strains in early January and expects to select ideal candidates for a booster and/or combination bivalent vaccine for the new strains in the coming days. The company plans to initiate clinical testing of these new vaccines in the second quarter of this year."
As part of this research, the scientists are hoping to determine whether the new vaccine would serve as a booster shot to the original vaccine that has already been developed, or as a bivalent vaccine administered on its own, meaning it would target two strains of the coronavirus, both the original and the variant first identified in South Africa.
Once lab testing is complete, the new vaccine could move to clinical trials – but a timeline is still in the works and the research is still very early.
In a previous announcement in January, the company said, "Novavax initiated development of new constructs against the emerging strains in early January and expects to select ideal candidates for a booster and/or combination bivalent vaccine for the new strains in the coming days. The company plans to initiate clinical testing of these new vaccines in the second quarter of this year."
#7439
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: VIE
Programs: SAS EBS / *A Silver, Hilton Diamond, Radisson VIP, IHG Platinum Ambassador
Posts: 3,795
New Swedish research suggests 96% of people retain antibodies at least 9 months after their infection. The reinfection rate among participants (all of whom had covid in the spring) has been less than 1%.
Over two thirds of people with antibodies also had memory t-cells. On the other hand, people without antibodies don't seem to have memory t-cells either.
Short news report in Swedish: https://www.svt.se/nyheter/vetenskap...er-nio-manader
Over two thirds of people with antibodies also had memory t-cells. On the other hand, people without antibodies don't seem to have memory t-cells either.
Short news report in Swedish: https://www.svt.se/nyheter/vetenskap...er-nio-manader
#7440
Considering that Sweden media are toeing party line and attacks on dissident, including FHM calling newspaper managers to put back their journalists back in line, any swedish newspaper article should be at best corroborated with an independent source, the link to the study for example in the post above:
https://www.thelocal.se/20210211/thr...-caused-a-stir
https://www.thelocal.se/20210211/thr...-caused-a-stir