Jan 27, 2020, 9:09 am
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Coronavirus / COVID-19 : general fact-based reporting
Aug 8, 2021, 1:28 pm
#8926
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No, we aren't seeing anything like that in the UK, and given the low number of severe cases in children it's probably incapable of proof here. We aren't seeing Delta as being more dangerous than Alpha in adults either, other than that because the disease is more skewed to those under 50s compared to Alpha, then it's quite tricky to see anyway. The death rate is running about 90 a day compared to 1,000 plus a day during Alpha, Alpha's worst day being 1,,400 deaths on a rolling 7 day average. As you say, the main danger of Delta is that it is so much easier to transmit. with an R rate at 1.6 compared to 1.2 for Alpha, even when there are a near equal level of public health precautions in place.
Aug 8, 2021, 1:43 pm
#8927
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Question: is there any statistical evidence yet on whether the Delta variant is actually more dangerous to unvaccinated children, say age 5-11?
I know that it is more infectious, so more kids will get it, and that means that more medical intervention will be needed.
But if you compare the average child with Alpha/Beta vs. the average child with Delta, is there a difference?
I know that it is more infectious, so more kids will get it, and that means that more medical intervention will be needed.
But if you compare the average child with Alpha/Beta vs. the average child with Delta, is there a difference?
There is a fundamental problem with the certitude some people require to make a decision. The virus spreads faster than our knowledge of it grows. We will always be behind if we demand certainty.
Last edited by GadgetFreak; Aug 16, 2021 at 6:15 pm Reason: Incorrectly remembered a number from Collins’ interview.
Aug 8, 2021, 1:45 pm
#8928
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No, we aren't seeing anything like that in the UK, and given the low number of severe cases in children it's probably incapable of proof here. We aren't seeing Delta as being more dangerous than Alpha in adults either, other than that because the disease is more skewed to those under 50s compared to Alpha, then it's quite tricky to see anyway. The death rate is running about 90 a day compared to 1,000 plus a day during Alpha, Alpha's worst day being 1,,400 deaths on a rolling 7 day average. As you say, the main danger of Delta is that it is so much easier to transmit. with an R rate at 1.6 compared to 1.2 for Alpha, even when there are a near equal level of public health precautions in place.
Aug 8, 2021, 1:53 pm
#8929
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Indeed, hypothetically with no public health measures. As I pointed out elsewhere it was a meaningless figure. Delta is a lot more infectious though, and a difference between 1.2 and 1.6 is actually quite enormous. Doubling time moves from 3 weeks to 12 days, for example. So back in the real world, if people know there is an infectious disease around they tend to do things differently to reduce their chances of infection - masks, social distancing, reducing socialisation, staying local. So Delta certainly has - again the real world - never hit 8 in the UK, indeed the peak of Delta was slightly lower than Alpha, we were at 1.6 for about a week, and we're now back below 1. I mean I still want you to be worried by 1.6, it's not a good figure, but hopefuly this gives a more realistic perspective. Hence you've got a rough month ahead of you in the USA - cases, deaths, ICU overload will all double - but you will get over it.
Aug 8, 2021, 2:05 pm
#8930
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Indeed, hypothetically with no public health measures. As I pointed out elsewhere it was a meaningless figure. Delta is a lot more infectious though, and a difference between 1.2 and 1.6 is actually quite enormous. Doubling time moves from 3 weeks to 12 days, for example. So back in the real world, if people know there is an infectious disease around they tend to do things differently to reduce their chances of infection - masks, social distancing, reducing socialisation, staying local. So Delta certainly has - again the real world - never hit 8 in the UK, indeed the peak of Delta was slightly lower than Alpha, we were at 1.6 for about a week, and we're now back below 1. I mean I still want you to be worried by 1.6, it's not a good figure, but hopefuly this gives a more realistic perspective. Hence you've got a rough month ahead of you in the USA - cases, deaths, ICU overload will all double - but you will get over it.
Here in New York the positivity rate went from around 0.35 to over 1.0 in less that 2 weeks in early July. It has been steady at about 3.1 to 3.5 for the last week of July amd first week of August with some signs of dropping a bit. That is far less than the circa 10% in January. But the vaccination rate is pretty high here. There are some parts of the US with a current positivity rate of over 20%. There isn’t much mitigation going on there.
Aug 8, 2021, 2:11 pm
#8931
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Maybe I'm glass half empty but I did not even see that in SoCal earlier this month. Everyone was behaving like there was no pandemic. Restaurants and bars were packed, hotel lobbies were packed, very little mask wearing (we were one of few folks with masks on). I expect the behavior to be even less cautious in places like FL or LA.
Aug 8, 2021, 2:21 pm
#8932
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I agree and was citing without mitigation, which I failed to specify. However, there are areas in the US with little to no mitigation and Delta has hospitals putting patients in conference rooms and garages as a result. The most serious problem with that is of course not enough staff.
Here in New York the positivity rate went from around 0.35 to over 1.0 in less that 2 weeks in early July. It has been steady at about 3.1 to 3.5 for the last week of July amd first week of August with some signs of dropping a bit. That is far less than the circa 10% in January. But the vaccination rate is pretty high here. There are some parts of the US with a current positivity rate of over 20%. There isn’t much mitigation going on there.
Here in New York the positivity rate went from around 0.35 to over 1.0 in less that 2 weeks in early July. It has been steady at about 3.1 to 3.5 for the last week of July amd first week of August with some signs of dropping a bit. That is far less than the circa 10% in January. But the vaccination rate is pretty high here. There are some parts of the US with a current positivity rate of over 20%. There isn’t much mitigation going on there.
Aug 8, 2021, 2:36 pm
#8933
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I don't want to push back on any of this, the plain fact is that way too many good people will die horrible deaths quite unnecessarily. Bad outcomes with COVID can be prevented. But you have to look at the overall situation, a bad situation in a few hospitals isn't not necessarily a US wide picture. And for everyone you see out there not taking COVID seriously, there are a lot of informed people quietly doing things their own way. So if a large family decides to not go out for a meal / not go to a game at the local sports arena / not go to church for a couple of weeks, that's the sort of small thing that can save someone's life quite easily.
Aug 9, 2021, 1:10 am
#8934
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Question: is there any statistical evidence yet on whether the Delta variant is actually more dangerous to unvaccinated children, say age 5-11?
I know that it is more infectious, so more kids will get it, and that means that more medical intervention will be needed.
But if you compare the average child with Alpha/Beta vs. the average child with Delta, is there a difference?
I know that it is more infectious, so more kids will get it, and that means that more medical intervention will be needed.
But if you compare the average child with Alpha/Beta vs. the average child with Delta, is there a difference?
Covid: Children's extremely low risk confirmed by study
- Data from the first 12 months of the pandemic in England shows 25 under-18s died from Covid. Those living with multiple chronic illnesses and neuro-disabilities were most at risk, though the overall risk remained low. The conclusions are being considered by the UK's vaccine advisory group. –
- Separately, scientists considered all children and young people in England who had an emergency hospital admission for Covid up to February 2021:
- Dr Elizabeth Whittaker, from the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health and Imperial College London, said it was encouraging they were seeing very few seriously unwell children in hospital. She added: "Although this data covers up to February 2021, this hasn't changed recently with the Delta variant. We hope this data will be reassuring for children and young people and their families."
- Data from the first 12 months of the pandemic in England shows 25 under-18s died from Covid. Those living with multiple chronic illnesses and neuro-disabilities were most at risk, though the overall risk remained low. The conclusions are being considered by the UK's vaccine advisory group. –
- Separately, scientists considered all children and young people in England who had an emergency hospital admission for Covid up to February 2021:
- Some 5,800 children were admitted with the virus, compared to about 367,600 admitted for other emergencies (excluding injuries)
- About 250 required intensive care
- There were 690 children admitted for a rare inflammatory condition linked to Covid, called paediatric inflammatory multisystem syndrome (PIMS-TS)
- Though the absolute risks were still small, children living with multiple conditions, those who were obese, and young people with heart and neurological illnesses were most at risk
- Dr Elizabeth Whittaker, from the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health and Imperial College London, said it was encouraging they were seeing very few seriously unwell children in hospital. She added: "Although this data covers up to February 2021, this hasn't changed recently with the Delta variant. We hope this data will be reassuring for children and young people and their families."
Most exposed kids will wind up asymptomatically healthy and not bothered much if at all. Later studies on long Covid have shown children to be worse affected by other respiratory illnesses such as flu, so I would worry more about us adults.
Long COVID Uncommon Among Children: UK Study
- Among children who tested positive for COVID-19 and showed symptoms, one in 22 (4.4 percent) had symptoms lasting for four weeks or longer, and one in 55 (1.8 percent) experienced symptoms for eight weeks or longer, the study suggests. This compares to a previous study on adults, in which around one in seven (13.3 percent) adult participants reported they had symptoms for four weeks or longer, one in 22 (4.5 percent) reported symptoms for eight weeks or longer, and one in 43 (2.3 percent) reported symptoms lasting longer than 12 weeks. –
- Emma Duncan, professor of clinical endocrinology from the King’s College London (KCL) and senior author of the study, said it was reassuring that symptom burden in children with COVID-19 “did not increase with time, and most recovered by day 56.”
Another senior author, Dr. Michael Absoud, said the data highlighted that “other illnesses, such as colds and flu, can also have prolonged symptoms in children and it is important to consider this when planning for paediatric health services during the pandemic and beyond.”
- Among children who tested positive for COVID-19 and showed symptoms, one in 22 (4.4 percent) had symptoms lasting for four weeks or longer, and one in 55 (1.8 percent) experienced symptoms for eight weeks or longer, the study suggests. This compares to a previous study on adults, in which around one in seven (13.3 percent) adult participants reported they had symptoms for four weeks or longer, one in 22 (4.5 percent) reported symptoms for eight weeks or longer, and one in 43 (2.3 percent) reported symptoms lasting longer than 12 weeks. –
- Emma Duncan, professor of clinical endocrinology from the King’s College London (KCL) and senior author of the study, said it was reassuring that symptom burden in children with COVID-19 “did not increase with time, and most recovered by day 56.”
Another senior author, Dr. Michael Absoud, said the data highlighted that “other illnesses, such as colds and flu, can also have prolonged symptoms in children and it is important to consider this when planning for paediatric health services during the pandemic and beyond.”
Last edited by FlitBen; Aug 9, 2021 at 1:30 am
Aug 9, 2021, 4:15 am
#8935
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UK agencies have studies that show virulence to be not much higher in child hospitalizations involving Delta strain.
Most exposed kids will wind up asymptomatically healthy and not bothered much if at all. Later studies on long Covid have shown children to be worse affected by other respiratory illnesses such as flu, so I would worry more about us adults.
Most exposed kids will wind up asymptomatically healthy and not bothered much if at all. Later studies on long Covid have shown children to be worse affected by other respiratory illnesses such as flu, so I would worry more about us adults.
Aug 9, 2021, 10:29 am
#8936
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The measures that have been used to try to minimize/slow the spread of Covid-19 have also slowed the spread of flu. Including with regard to children getting sick.
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6526/224
“COVID-19 measures also suppress flu—for now”
[mod edit]
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6526/224
“COVID-19 measures also suppress flu—for now”
[mod edit]
Last edited by NewbieRunner; Aug 10, 2021 at 2:10 am Reason: Redacted reference to deleted discussion
Aug 9, 2021, 12:20 pm
#8937
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The measures that have been used to try to minimize/slow the spread of Covid-19 have also slowed the spread of flu. Including with regard to children getting sick.
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6526/224
“COVID-19 measures also suppress flu—for now”
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6526/224
“COVID-19 measures also suppress flu—for now”
Last edited by NewbieRunner; Aug 10, 2021 at 2:13 am Reason: Conform with edited version of quoted text
Aug 9, 2021, 3:41 pm
#8938
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We certainly do not know that the virus was created in the lab. From what I have read, it is possible (note, I did not indicate likeliness) that it was being studied in Wuhan and got out. Wouldn't be the first time such a thing happened, China, US, Europe, or otherwise. But the evidence (such that it is, and the perceived cover-up from the CCP is not helping sway public opinion) is scant, at best.
Aug 9, 2021, 4:09 pm
#8939
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I'm trying to parse this, and I apologize if I have misstated what your wrote from your actual opinion.
We certainly do not know that the virus was created in the lab. From what I have read, it is possible (note, I did not indicate likeliness) that it was being studied in Wuhan and got out. Wouldn't be the first time such a thing happened, China, US, Europe, or otherwise. But the evidence (such that it is, and the perceived cover-up from the CCP is not helping sway public opinion) is scant, at best.
We certainly do not know that the virus was created in the lab. From what I have read, it is possible (note, I did not indicate likeliness) that it was being studied in Wuhan and got out. Wouldn't be the first time such a thing happened, China, US, Europe, or otherwise. But the evidence (such that it is, and the perceived cover-up from the CCP is not helping sway public opinion) is scant, at best.
You are correct, we certainly don’t know. It could have been naturally in the area through some transmission not associated with the lab. It could have been that someone working in the lab went to a remote area to collect for the lab, got infected and brought it back. It could have been brought back to the lab and grown there and escaped or it could have been brought back to the lab, modified and escaped. We simply don’t know at this point in time.
Aug 9, 2021, 6:34 pm
#8940
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Maybe I'm glass half empty but I did not even see that in SoCal earlier this month. Everyone was behaving like there was no pandemic. Restaurants and bars were packed, hotel lobbies were packed, very little mask wearing (we were one of few folks with masks on). I expect the behavior to be even less cautious in places like FL or LA.