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Coronavirus / COVID-19 : general fact-based reporting

Coronavirus / COVID-19 : general fact-based reporting

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Old Jan 20, 20, 9:15 pm
  #1  
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Coronavirus / COVID-19 : general fact-based reporting

Given the latest news about the CoronaVirus outbreak in China, are you concerned and preparing for an epidemic outbreak?
If so, how do you hedge your travel bets?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/hu...?mod=home-page
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Old Jan 20, 20, 10:45 pm
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Well, we live in China...so not 'travelling here' is not an option.

I think for >99.99% tourists to China, there won't be an issue...tourists to Wuhan will be at sl. elevated risk but I would estimate as <1/1000. BUT, that doesn't mean routine precautions aren't warranted: I would be scrupulous about hand hygiene, everywhere. I would consider wearing a face mask if travelling in ultra-crowded areas e.g. train stations, although by all accounts so far, the human-human transmission potential of 2019-nCoV (brilliant Chinese PR to not have a geographical moniker for the name) is fairly low...

I'm actually travelling to Europe on New Year's day, via PKX. I'm thinking about wearing a mask in the airport, although I'm assuming it will be a particularly quiet travel day that day...

Coming back to the OP: do you have actual travel plans in place? The way to 'hedge' the bets is to get travel insurance if plans already made.

tb
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Old Jan 21, 20, 3:52 am
  #3  
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Originally Posted by trueblu View Post
Coming back to the OP: do you have actual travel plans in place? The way to 'hedge' the bets is to get travel insurance if plans already made.
Will insurance turn around and say Wuhan Coronavirus is already an existing event by now?

China Railway just declared refund waiver for Wuhan rail travel https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/cnnews/2...00952_001.html
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Old Jan 21, 20, 4:50 am
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Currently in Qingdao, the Chinese Government appear to now be taking this very seriously.
  1. First case of the virus has turned up in this city from someone who has visited Wuhan.
  2. Five hospitals in this city of 9 million people have been designated as being qualified to handle possible cases of infection. I would imagine you can rinse and repeat for the whole of China.
  3. All leave over the spring festival for relevant qualified medical staff aligned to relevant medical facilities has been cancelled and they have to be within an hour or so of their medical base.
  4. All passengers on flights already being screened throughout the country. Action plan to put body temperature scanners in at train stations and other long distance hubs being implemented at high speed, if not already in place.
  5. Government are encouraging the population to take sensible precautions, wear face masks, drink more water, wash hands, any sign of infection to report in, etc.
  6. My friends here say that there is a slight uptick in the use of face masks so far but many people wear them usually at this time of the year especially in the north when it's cold.

If any government in this world would have a fighting chance of controlling this outbreak my guess is that China has to be at the top of the list, they have the resources to do so, and appear to have the political will behind this. I am sure the big data machine is hard at work in China already trying to join the dots. It's really unfortunate that so many people in China are due to travel at this time of year and that will increase those risks. I guess we will all have to watch this space, and hoping all those who become infected can make a full recovery wherever they are.

(Similar posting made to BA forum, slightly updated here, hat tip to moondog for suggesting it.)
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Old Jan 21, 20, 7:46 am
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Originally Posted by percysmith View Post
Will insurance turn around and say Wuhan Coronavirus is already an existing event by now?

China Railway just declared refund waiver for Wuhan rail travel https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/cnnews/2...00952_001.html
I think new insurance would be valid until the point there is a travel advisory, however, it wouldn't allow for a claim unless there was a travel advisory.

tb
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Old Jan 21, 20, 7:48 am
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Despite the official show of solidarity from the citizenry that all will be well, JD and taobao tell a different story...my last remaining student in lab told me today that all N95 masks and alcohol hand gels are pretty much sold out.

I'm actually not too concerned as of now, but what happens in the next two weeks will be crucial in terms of how all this plays out.

tb
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Old Jan 21, 20, 9:19 am
  #7  
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I think two, three weeks after the Chinese New Year "travel dust" settles it is time to draw some first conclusions.

I left PVG this morning, and they have temperature scan before passport control when leaving China. Seems they also take it more serious than usual, as they had a family with children out, where the boy was definitely looking a bit pale. After 2003 SARS was quite a big embarrassment for the Chinese government, they will be better prepared now.
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Old Jan 21, 20, 9:53 am
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Nobody knows much about it. Not quite an epidemic yet. How many deaths yet? 6 I think. Out of 1.4 billions.
In the US, 50,000 every year die from pneumonia.
Your odds are good.
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Old Jan 21, 20, 11:08 am
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The suspicion is that the problems originated with markets where live animals were kept and animal body parts, as well as seafood.

So a virus jumps from animals to humans.

Isn't that what the bird flu virus was thought to originate from as well, these restaurants in Asia where they kept live poultry?


If it is due to these practices with livestock, why would it originate only from that one city? Seems like a cultural custom so it could be a bigger problem?

Or have they tried to enforce some safer livestock handling practices?
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Old Jan 21, 20, 11:50 am
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First case in US

Just saw the CDC is expected to announce the first case in the US - Washington state https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/21/healt...-bn/index.html
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Old Jan 21, 20, 12:27 pm
  #11  
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Remember this back in 03...now Wuhan 2020. https://www.businessinsider.com/chin...20-1?r=DE&IR=T
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Old Jan 21, 20, 3:27 pm
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I lived through SARS in Beijing in 2003. It was a strange time and ended up being quite disruptive not only to travel, but to aspects of daily life. It was a key factor in tanking the business that I worked for at the time, and in many of my friends at the time departing from Beijing for good (some had no choice, their organizations sent them elsewhere as a precautionary measure). While this new virus so far doesn't seem as virulent or transmissable, it doesn't sound like something to underestimate, either. If you live in China, your course of action is limited by your work obligations and sense of (in)vulnerability. If you were planning a pleasure or family visit trip to pretty much anywhere in China between now and end of March, my advice is to cancel/reschedule. If a non-essential business trip, do the same or use technology to accomplish what you can. Genie is out of the bottle, and this outbreak isn't going to be limited to Wuhan, particularly with the Spring Festival travel season in full swing. I agree with hedging of bets by use of travel insurance. If waiting on making a decision is an option, do so, and see if airlines, agents, etc. will issue a waiver or non-penalty policy for changes made to travel in this area. I think we'll know a lot more about how serious and how controllable this disease is going to be, in about 6-8 weeks.
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Old Jan 21, 20, 4:25 pm
  #13  
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Originally Posted by jiejie View Post
If you were planning a pleasure or family visit trip to pretty much anywhere in China between now and end of March, my advice is to cancel/reschedule. .
I agree, airports monitor with thermal cameras and hand held infrared thermometers and will swoop on those showing high temperatures. Since its flu season now, if you develop a fever there
you could get stuck in China for 10-14 days in quarantine at a hotel or facility.
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Old Jan 21, 20, 4:52 pm
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What about HK or Thailand?

And now Washington State?
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Old Jan 21, 20, 5:06 pm
  #15  
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I seem to recall that during SARS there were instances where a whole planeload of passengers was quarantined if just one passenger showed signs of the disease.
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