Last edit by: username
PLEASE READ BEFORE POSTING
The following two links are updated daily:
IATA international transit / arrival policies Coronavirus Outbreak - Update
WHO Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation reports
Counters / Meters : Other Discussions on FlyerTalk Pertaining to COVID-19:
General (in this forum)
Location-specific
Airlines
Hotels
Other
Please add other discussions on FlyerTalk pertaining to COVID-19 not already been included in this WikiPost. Thank you.
This thread has become a valuable resource on Corona Virus/COVID-19 in general and no longer just about its impact on China travel. In order for the thread to remain fact-based and useful, posters are reminded to keep it free of speculation, conjecture and fear-mongering. Posts which do not meet these guidelines or which break the FT rules may be edited or deleted. Please observe the following FT rules in particular:
- be respectful and helpful
- stay on topic
- posts must be contributive to the thread
- inflammatory, inciting or unnecessarily provocative posts are not allowed
- repetitively posting comments of the same general theme is not permitted
- abusive, hateful, threatening, harassing or otherwise offensive posts will not be tolerated
- do not post comments on moderator decisions
FlyerTalk Senior Moderator Team
- be respectful and helpful
- stay on topic
- posts must be contributive to the thread
- inflammatory, inciting or unnecessarily provocative posts are not allowed
- repetitively posting comments of the same general theme is not permitted
- abusive, hateful, threatening, harassing or otherwise offensive posts will not be tolerated
- do not post comments on moderator decisions
FlyerTalk Senior Moderator Team
The following two links are updated daily:
IATA international transit / arrival policies Coronavirus Outbreak - Update
WHO Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation reports
Counters / Meters : Other Discussions on FlyerTalk Pertaining to COVID-19:
General (in this forum)
- Corona Virus / COVID-19 : general fact-based reporting [previously in] China forum
- COVID-19: Lounge thread for thoughts, concerns and questions
- USA halts entry of visitors who’ve been in UK, Ireland, Schengen countries
Location-specific
Airlines
- coronavirus travel waiver Air Canada | Aeroplan forum
- Coronavirus - Air China offers full refunds Other Asian, Australian, and South Pacific Airlines
- Does AFKL suspend flights to Mainland China? Air France, KLM, and Other Partners | Flying Blue
- NZ Suspends PVG service - till 29 March Air New Zealand | Air Points
- Alaska disappointing handling over an award ticket regarding viral outbreak in china Alaska Airlines | Mileage Plan
- AA China Coronavirus paid & award flights cancellation / change questions American Airlines | AAdvantage
- Coronavirus + NH All Nippon Airways | ANA Mileage Club
- *Coronavirus : BA Suspends all flts to mainland China* +discussion on long haul flts British Airways | Executive Club forum
- Wuhan coronavirus - effect on Cathay Pacific Cathay Pacific | Marco Polo Club
- China Southern travel-waiver corona-virus Other Asian, Australian, and South Pacific Airlines
- DL Coronavirus Waiver // Suspension of China flights due to Corona Virus Delta Air Lines / SkyMiles
- Coronavirus - Emirates Emirates | Skywards
- BR Adjusts Service/Schedule Due to Coronavirus Outbreak Eva Air / Infinity MileageLands
- Finnair China travel waivers?? Finnair | Finnair Plus
- Hainan Airlines (HU) Travel Waiver for 2019-nCoV? Other Asian, Australian, and South Pacific Airlines
- IB halts flights to China due to CoronaVirus [29/01/2020] Iberia Airlines | Iberia Plus
- Wuhan Coronavirus travel waiver / service change Japan Airlines | JAL Mileage Bank
- Coronavirus: LH Group general waiver to rebook flights operated end of April 2020 Lufthansa, Austrian, Swiss, Brussels, LOT and Other Partners | Miles & More
- Coronavirus: LH Group suspends flights to Italy [Discussion of Italy waiver] Lufthansa, Austrian, Swiss, Brussels, LOT and Other Partners | Miles & More
- Coronavirus Ticket Change Policy? Malaysia Airlines | Enrich
- QANTAS suspends services to China from Feb 9 Qantas | Frequent Flyer
- Ryanair - any options for Italy flights? Ryanair / Other European airlines
- SAS stops all direct flights to mainland China SAS | EuroBonus
- Coronavirus waivers Singapore Airlines | KrisFlyer
- THAI reduces flights to/from Mainland China 08Feb - 28Mar Thai Airways | Royal Orchid Plus
- Turkish Airlines Suspends Service to China until February 09 Turkish Airlines | Miles&Smiles
- UA COVID19: Flight Suspensions; Reduced serviced; Waivers; and No change fee bookings United Airlines | MileagePlus
- Coronavirus Waivers? Virgin Atlantic Airways | Flying Club
Hotels
- Cancellation of Bookings Due to Corona Virus Accor / ALL (Accor Live Limitless)
- Does Hilton wave no refundable bookings? Hilton / Hilton Honors
- CoronaVirus Cancellation - Non Refundable RESULT InterContinental Hotels / IHG Reward Club & Intercontinental Ambassador
- Coronavirus, any impact on your travel plan Marriott / Marriott Bonvoy
Other
- Which longhaul routes to/from China will be cut by end of Q1 2020? TravelBuzz
- Coronavirus epidemic, worries for China/ Global GDP OmniPR forum
- Coronavirus in the US. What would Amtrak do? Amtrak / Guest Rewards
- Your Next Cruise: Are are Having Second Thoughts Due to Fears of Pandemic? Travel&Dining / Cruises
Please add other discussions on FlyerTalk pertaining to COVID-19 not already been included in this WikiPost. Thank you.
Coronavirus / COVID-19 : general fact-based reporting
#1
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Original Poster
Join Date: Oct 1999
Posts: 11,468
Coronavirus / COVID-19 : general fact-based reporting
Given the latest news about the CoronaVirus outbreak in China, are you concerned and preparing for an epidemic outbreak?
If so, how do you hedge your travel bets?
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/hu...?mod=home-page
If so, how do you hedge your travel bets?
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/hu...?mod=home-page
Top Answer
Oct 11, 2021, 1:22 pm
Moderator, Iberia Airlines, Airport Lounges, and Ambassador, British Airways Executive Club
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 63,844
Younger people - both vaccinated and unvaccinated - are ending up in hosptial in far greater numbers due to COVID than is usual in normal times, with the unvaccinated experiencing worst outcomes. When I first worked the intensive care units, back in January, everyone was older than me, now almost all are younger than me. On the week 40 surveillance, someone aged 35 has 1 chance in 50,000 of being hospitalised in the course of a month, if vaccinated, about the same as baseline pre COVID. The unvaccinated multiply their risk of this by a factor of 6.5 - way over usual levels and the same as vaccinated people aged 68. If we look at ICU risk, the multiplied increase is about 9 or 10 times compared to the vaccinated. If we consider years lost via premature deaths, or indeed economic impact, I can make the case that it would have been better to vaccinate people in their 30s before some older cohorts. Around about 1 person a day aged 30 to 39 is currently dying from COVID in the UK, 80% of them are unvaccinated when 30% of that age group in the wider population is not yet vaccinated. We strongly suspect that almost all of those deaths in the unvaccinated were avoidable. You can't necessarily say that of people aged 68, vaccinated or unvaccinated.
That's the UK situation, but just look at the USA situation if you want to really see what happens to people under 50 who elect not to receive a safe and effective vaccine.
#2
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: PEK and BOS
Programs: BA - Blue
Posts: 4,531
Well, we live in China...so not 'travelling here' is not an option.
I think for >99.99% tourists to China, there won't be an issue...tourists to Wuhan will be at sl. elevated risk but I would estimate as <1/1000. BUT, that doesn't mean routine precautions aren't warranted: I would be scrupulous about hand hygiene, everywhere. I would consider wearing a face mask if travelling in ultra-crowded areas e.g. train stations, although by all accounts so far, the human-human transmission potential of 2019-nCoV (brilliant Chinese PR to not have a geographical moniker for the name) is fairly low...
I'm actually travelling to Europe on New Year's day, via PKX. I'm thinking about wearing a mask in the airport, although I'm assuming it will be a particularly quiet travel day that day...
Coming back to the OP: do you have actual travel plans in place? The way to 'hedge' the bets is to get travel insurance if plans already made.
tb
I think for >99.99% tourists to China, there won't be an issue...tourists to Wuhan will be at sl. elevated risk but I would estimate as <1/1000. BUT, that doesn't mean routine precautions aren't warranted: I would be scrupulous about hand hygiene, everywhere. I would consider wearing a face mask if travelling in ultra-crowded areas e.g. train stations, although by all accounts so far, the human-human transmission potential of 2019-nCoV (brilliant Chinese PR to not have a geographical moniker for the name) is fairly low...
I'm actually travelling to Europe on New Year's day, via PKX. I'm thinking about wearing a mask in the airport, although I'm assuming it will be a particularly quiet travel day that day...
Coming back to the OP: do you have actual travel plans in place? The way to 'hedge' the bets is to get travel insurance if plans already made.
tb
#3
Ambassador, Hong Kong and Macau
Join Date: May 2009
Location: HKG
Programs: Non-top tier Asia Miles member
Posts: 19,803
China Railway just declared refund waiver for Wuhan rail travel https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/cnnews/2...00952_001.html
#4
Join Date: Jan 2016
Location: LON
Programs: BAEC
Posts: 3,918
Currently in Qingdao, the Chinese Government appear to now be taking this very seriously.
If any government in this world would have a fighting chance of controlling this outbreak my guess is that China has to be at the top of the list, they have the resources to do so, and appear to have the political will behind this. I am sure the big data machine is hard at work in China already trying to join the dots. It's really unfortunate that so many people in China are due to travel at this time of year and that will increase those risks. I guess we will all have to watch this space, and hoping all those who become infected can make a full recovery wherever they are.
(Similar posting made to BA forum, slightly updated here, hat tip to moondog for suggesting it.)
- First case of the virus has turned up in this city from someone who has visited Wuhan.
- Five hospitals in this city of 9 million people have been designated as being qualified to handle possible cases of infection. I would imagine you can rinse and repeat for the whole of China.
- All leave over the spring festival for relevant qualified medical staff aligned to relevant medical facilities has been cancelled and they have to be within an hour or so of their medical base.
- All passengers on flights already being screened throughout the country. Action plan to put body temperature scanners in at train stations and other long distance hubs being implemented at high speed, if not already in place.
- Government are encouraging the population to take sensible precautions, wear face masks, drink more water, wash hands, any sign of infection to report in, etc.
- My friends here say that there is a slight uptick in the use of face masks so far but many people wear them usually at this time of the year especially in the north when it's cold.
If any government in this world would have a fighting chance of controlling this outbreak my guess is that China has to be at the top of the list, they have the resources to do so, and appear to have the political will behind this. I am sure the big data machine is hard at work in China already trying to join the dots. It's really unfortunate that so many people in China are due to travel at this time of year and that will increase those risks. I guess we will all have to watch this space, and hoping all those who become infected can make a full recovery wherever they are.
(Similar posting made to BA forum, slightly updated here, hat tip to moondog for suggesting it.)
#5
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: PEK and BOS
Programs: BA - Blue
Posts: 4,531
Will insurance turn around and say Wuhan Coronavirus is already an existing event by now?
China Railway just declared refund waiver for Wuhan rail travel https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/cnnews/2...00952_001.html
China Railway just declared refund waiver for Wuhan rail travel https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/cnnews/2...00952_001.html
tb
#6
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: PEK and BOS
Programs: BA - Blue
Posts: 4,531
Despite the official show of solidarity from the citizenry that all will be well, JD and taobao tell a different story...my last remaining student in lab told me today that all N95 masks and alcohol hand gels are pretty much sold out.
I'm actually not too concerned as of now, but what happens in the next two weeks will be crucial in terms of how all this plays out.
tb
I'm actually not too concerned as of now, but what happens in the next two weeks will be crucial in terms of how all this plays out.
tb
#7
Join Date: Apr 2019
Location: BER, SHA
Programs: AF/KL Gold (ST EP), IHG Plat, ex-AB Gold, Avis President's Club
Posts: 42
I think two, three weeks after the Chinese New Year "travel dust" settles it is time to draw some first conclusions.
I left PVG this morning, and they have temperature scan before passport control when leaving China. Seems they also take it more serious than usual, as they had a family with children out, where the boy was definitely looking a bit pale. After 2003 SARS was quite a big embarrassment for the Chinese government, they will be better prepared now.
I left PVG this morning, and they have temperature scan before passport control when leaving China. Seems they also take it more serious than usual, as they had a family with children out, where the boy was definitely looking a bit pale. After 2003 SARS was quite a big embarrassment for the Chinese government, they will be better prepared now.
#8
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: China and Canada
Posts: 1,886
Nobody knows much about it. Not quite an epidemic yet. How many deaths yet? 6 I think. Out of 1.4 billions.
In the US, 50,000 every year die from pneumonia.
Your odds are good.
In the US, 50,000 every year die from pneumonia.
Your odds are good.
#9
Suspended
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Bay Area
Programs: DL SM, UA MP.
Posts: 12,729
The suspicion is that the problems originated with markets where live animals were kept and animal body parts, as well as seafood.
So a virus jumps from animals to humans.
Isn't that what the bird flu virus was thought to originate from as well, these restaurants in Asia where they kept live poultry?
If it is due to these practices with livestock, why would it originate only from that one city? Seems like a cultural custom so it could be a bigger problem?
Or have they tried to enforce some safer livestock handling practices?
So a virus jumps from animals to humans.
Isn't that what the bird flu virus was thought to originate from as well, these restaurants in Asia where they kept live poultry?
If it is due to these practices with livestock, why would it originate only from that one city? Seems like a cultural custom so it could be a bigger problem?
Or have they tried to enforce some safer livestock handling practices?
#10
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Austin, TX
Programs: Delta Skymiles
Posts: 58
First case in US
Just saw the CDC is expected to announce the first case in the US - Washington state https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/21/healt...-bn/index.html
#11
Ambassador: China
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Malibu Inferno Ground Zero
Programs: UA AA CO
Posts: 4,836
Remember this back in 03...now Wuhan 2020. https://www.businessinsider.com/chin...20-1?r=DE&IR=T
#12
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Southeast USA
Programs: various
Posts: 6,710
I lived through SARS in Beijing in 2003. It was a strange time and ended up being quite disruptive not only to travel, but to aspects of daily life. It was a key factor in tanking the business that I worked for at the time, and in many of my friends at the time departing from Beijing for good (some had no choice, their organizations sent them elsewhere as a precautionary measure). While this new virus so far doesn't seem as virulent or transmissable, it doesn't sound like something to underestimate, either. If you live in China, your course of action is limited by your work obligations and sense of (in)vulnerability. If you were planning a pleasure or family visit trip to pretty much anywhere in China between now and end of March, my advice is to cancel/reschedule. If a non-essential business trip, do the same or use technology to accomplish what you can. Genie is out of the bottle, and this outbreak isn't going to be limited to Wuhan, particularly with the Spring Festival travel season in full swing. I agree with hedging of bets by use of travel insurance. If waiting on making a decision is an option, do so, and see if airlines, agents, etc. will issue a waiver or non-penalty policy for changes made to travel in this area. I think we'll know a lot more about how serious and how controllable this disease is going to be, in about 6-8 weeks.
#13
Ambassador: China
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Malibu Inferno Ground Zero
Programs: UA AA CO
Posts: 4,836
you could get stuck in China for 10-14 days in quarantine at a hotel or facility.
#14
Suspended
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Bay Area
Programs: DL SM, UA MP.
Posts: 12,729
What about HK or Thailand?
And now Washington State?
And now Washington State?
#15
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,097
I seem to recall that during SARS there were instances where a whole planeload of passengers was quarantined if just one passenger showed signs of the disease.