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Old Jan 27, 2020, 9:09 am
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Coronavirus / COVID-19 : general fact-based reporting

 
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Old Jan 24, 2020, 8:35 pm
  #151  
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Originally Posted by DaileyB
What I don't understand, is the extreme concern about this virus. It doesn't seem to be any more lethal than a bad case of the flu. Am I wrong?
From a quick check in Wikipedia, with whatever reliability issues it has, and with my limited understanding:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...fatality_rates

Flu fatality rates 0.1%

SARS fatality rates 11%
MERS fatality rates 45%
Avian Flu fatality rates 60%
(all three SARS, MERS, Avian Flu relatively contained outbreaks)

Current corona virus fatality rates 4% (41 deaths, 1000 cases as of today), and story developing/unfolding.
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Old Jan 24, 2020, 8:43 pm
  #152  
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Shouldn't we be comparing number of fatalities versus number of recoveries to get the fatality rate at this point? If the thousand cases are mostly in a relatively early stage of the disease, many of them could yet die. For example, Hubei has reported 24 deaths and 31 recoveries, which would be a fatality rate of about 44%, just slightly less than MERS and probably not significantly different.
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Old Jan 24, 2020, 8:46 pm
  #153  
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Originally Posted by MSPeconomist
Shouldn't we be comparing number of fatalities versus number of recoveries to get the fatality rate at this point? If the thousand cases are mostly in a relatively early stage of the disease, many of them could yet die. For example, Hubei has reported 24 deaths and 31 recoveries, which would be a fatality rate of about 44%, just slightly less than MERS and probably not significantly different.
Very good point. There are a lot of opportunities for overestimates or underestimates at this point, as the story is unfolding, at very early stages.
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Old Jan 24, 2020, 10:16 pm
  #154  
 
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From USA TODAY Something far deadlier than the Wuhan coronavirus lurks near you, right here in America
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...se/4564133002/
Last edited by NewbieRunner; Feb 29, 2020 at 10:52 am Reason: Font size
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Old Jan 25, 2020, 12:51 am
  #155  
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Originally Posted by STS-134
But when these lies start to have consequences that go beyond just saving face for your boss, and even worse, if these lies actually cause people to get sick and die, then it's probably not a good idea to lie in the first place. Plus, in these types of scenarios, everyone figures out the truth anyway, and then the lies end up being a loss of face for everyone involved. So now, everyone in Wuhan knows that the entire organization that was giving them incorrect info on how contagious this virus is is full of crap. And it's not just everyone inside the organization, but everyone in the general public, other provinces, and even people outside of China. That's about the biggest loss of face I can think of.
That's the biggest problem - even if the authorities want to do the right thing by the people, I don't think the people trust them to. Too many years of inherent distrust to be fixed in an instant.
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Old Jan 25, 2020, 2:04 am
  #156  
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Originally Posted by STS-134
That's about the biggest loss of face I can think of.

You are completely correct, but when it first started they didn't know whether it would just go away or whether it would become as bad as this. They were obviously hoping that it was just a seasonal thing and would peter out quickly. When someone noticed it was worse than usual they were still hoping it wouldn't spread too far.

We will never know how many new viruses have originated but were contained without spreading too far because they were not as virulent, or due to proper action.

Don't tell me that outside of China everyone who makes a mistake immediately owns up to it in full.
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Old Jan 25, 2020, 2:52 am
  #157  
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Originally Posted by percysmith
HK news say its bat --> snake --> humans this time (2003 SARS: bat --> civet cat --> humans). I have less gastronomic inhibitions about eating snake soup compared to a civet cat or bamboo rat pot.
Eating breakfast with mum. I asked whether she read about the bat snake theory from the conservative msm she reads

She said it's not eating the snake, but how it's prepared

Snakes are cooked, coronavirus isn't likely to spread that way. Besides it's not end users who were infected first

It's the preparers in the market. Snakes are gutted by hooks live. If a preparer doesn't wash after gutting or wear adequate protective gear then he can get infected during the gutting

She said it's not just soup we're talking about, it could be wine or the gall bladder too. I discounted those possibilities as it is not end users who were infected first
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Old Jan 25, 2020, 5:51 am
  #158  
 
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I am following this crisis because its trend negatives are moving fast.

A liveblog on the latest population interdictions and evacuations:

Coronavirus outbreak
Beijing has suspended all inter-province shuttle buses to attempt to limit the spread of the virus. It is not yet known when the services will resume. -
Things may be worse than they were letting us on.
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Old Jan 25, 2020, 6:08 am
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Originally Posted by FlitBen
Things may be worse than they were letting us on.
Or it might not be but because it finally taken very seriously due to the fact that full extent of the spread and consequences are not known.
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Old Jan 25, 2020, 6:26 am
  #160  
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Originally Posted by MSPeconomist
Shouldn't we be comparing number of fatalities versus number of recoveries to get the fatality rate at this point? If the thousand cases are mostly in a relatively early stage of the disease, many of them could yet die. For example, Hubei has reported 24 deaths and 31 recoveries, which would be a fatality rate of about 44%, just slightly less than MERS and probably not significantly different.
Indeed fatality rate is death / total people infected, _after the fact_. Since we can't see in the future, we should compare death / dead + cured people, or death / people who have been infected for X amount of time (weeks to a month, probably)
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Old Jan 25, 2020, 6:33 am
  #161  
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https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...549v1.full.pdf

They estimate only 5% of cases are currently accounted for, which would mean ~30k infected people already. Also they estimate 250k within weeks.

This is unquestionably worse than SARS etc. Spreading quicker and wider despite much faster action.
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Old Jan 25, 2020, 6:44 am
  #162  
 
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Originally Posted by invisible
Or it might not be but because it finally taken very seriously due to the fact that full extent of the spread and consequences are not known.
The chain of officials who sign off on disaster response and resourcing has reached the very top, with a working cluster in the CP politburo. This tells us that things are getting very serious. Especially with all the crash expansions of containment and interdiction programs around the region.

Unconfirmed reports out of Ch@ngsa claim that military units are preparing broader and tighter blockades, although it is not at all clear which are supposed to keep populations in or out.
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Old Jan 25, 2020, 6:54 am
  #163  
 
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Today there it is reported that private transport is banned as well inside Wuhan.

On more generic term - how long can one keep 11m people under pretty much house arrest? How do you supply them with food/water/entertainment?
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Old Jan 25, 2020, 7:06 am
  #164  
 
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Originally Posted by invisible
Today there it is reported that private transport is banned as well inside Wuhan.

On more generic term - how long can one keep 11m people under pretty much house arrest? How do you supply them with food/water/entertainment?
I'm guessing the entertainment factor won't enter into the equation.
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Old Jan 25, 2020, 7:08 am
  #165  
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Originally Posted by invisible
Today there it is reported that private transport is banned as well inside Wuhan.

On more generic term - how long can one keep 11m people under pretty much house arrest? How do you supply them with food/water/entertainment?
I read somewhere for about a week, before problems start, which sounds about right...
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