cockpitvisit

Are there any infos on the confirmed healing/survival rate? Are all people who got infected e. g. 2 weeks ago (and didn't die) still sick? Or are most of them healthy again?

invisible

It gets me thinking... what if this or similar epidemic started not in China, but in Lagos, Jakarta, Mumbai, Dhaka or Cairo... Where the would would be after 30 days?

FlitBen

With a sample size in the teens across a variety of ages and pre-existing conditions, they probably are not confident about any mortality model yet. It is the initial transmission features and stats that are getting established.

invisible

You would be surprised... one needs to keep people preoccupied with something.

anacapamalibu

That's restriction of movement in a quarantined area. Shelter in place.Wuhan went one step further Saturday, announcing vehicle use including private cars would be banned in downtown areas starting after midnight, state media reported. Only authorized vehicles to carry supplies and for other needs would be permitted after that, the reports said.

Wuhan will assign 6,000 taxis to different neighborhoods, under the management of local resident committees, to help people get around if they need to, the state-owned English-language China Daily newspaper said

MSPeconomist

Check my post above and a couple responses to it. For the province containing Wuhan, I saw numbers of 24 deaths and 31 recoveries reported, although I would expect that both numbers have gone up in the last day or so. Still, the numbers I used give a death rate of about 44% or alternatively a survival rate of 56% for the earliest cases. That's comparable to MERS.

Other reports seem to suggest that most of the deaths are in older/elderly people, who are obviously more likely to have other health problems as complicating factor(s), although I haven't seen any data regarding whether the disease itself is more likely to infect older/elderly people or not. Basically the question is whether an older individual is more likely to get the disease (for example, perhaps most of the workers in the Wuhan wet market are older/elderly) or whether given that an individual is infected, someone who is older/elderly is more likely to die (rather than recover) compared to a younger person who is infected.

Romanianflyer

But those rates do then only count for hospitalised persons who are symptomatic.

There are probably thousands of people who have the virus but might not have any symptoms at all or just only get mildly sick, thus not going to hospital and not counted in the statistics. That would make the death rate much, much lower at just a few percentage points only, wouldn't it? I have never seen any official statistic putting the mortality rate that high and survival rate that low, unless I missed something.

nk15

These are the statistics quoted on the officially diagnosed patients. What you stated is a methodologically threat to all those official numbers, but its effects cannot be fully account for, so it remains as an unestimated confounding variable. The only thing that can be said is that it leads to all these numbers likely being overestimates, but nobody likely can say by how much (unless there is a model that can speculate/estimate this).

STS-134

The problem I have with this is that these people don't seem to have the ability to judge when it's acceptable to tell lies and when it's not. If it's a project that's behind schedule, or a business deal, and they want to lie about the cause, whatever. I can accept cultural differences, up to a certain point. But if you are running a nuclear power plant and something goes awry and most of the safety systems don't stop it, and a release of radiation is finally prevented at the last step, that's not something you lie about, period. People's lives depend on transparency and making sure that any issues are quickly disclosed and fixed. What these people did has crossed a red line. Their stupidity has not only caused additional and unnecessary sickness and death, but has put the entire world at risk. People without enough common sense to judge when it's acceptable to tell white lies and when it's not should not be in leadership positions, period.

And my wife just told me that she's heard reports that people within Wuhan who were trying to tell people about a mysterious sickness that was causing deaths and warn the public were actually arrested, for "spreading false information and fear". So not only were people telling lies, but there were also people who attempted to cover up their lies of the first group by silencing people who were telling the truth. Anyone who participated in this process of trying to silence people who were doing good needs to also be tried and, if convicted, sent to prison for a long time.

There's an additional variable in there too. If someone receives proper treatment, the probability of death can drop dramatically. For example, Ebola virus disease. Once someone gets it, it's scary how lethal it is, with an over 50% case fatality rate. But look at EVD in the US: 2 deaths out of 11 cases. 2 cases where someone got Ebola in the US and 0 where those people have died of it. 4 cases originally diagnosed in the US and 7 evacuated from other countries. 9 recoveries.

MSPeconomist

I'm not sure what the odds are of someone being able to receive proper treatment in Wuhan, unless possibly they have access to some special nonpublic medical facilities. Even in normal times, the public hospitals etc. in Wuhan aren't good. This is partly why there were reports of sick people trying to escape to Beijing and Shanghai.

Romanianflyer

For a bit more positive news:

A French doctor and infectious disease expert (who is also treating two of the infected patients in that country) said that the Wuhan corona virus is "a lot less serious than SARS" based on his own on-the-ground observations as well as those from his colleagues in China. Mortality rate as estimated by experts is still around 5 percent.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireSt...-sars-68529819

percysmith

Tour groups suspended on Monday https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/25/w...ronavirus.html .
Sale of flight and hotel packages also suspended.

Those already mid-trip can keep going.

Sale of stand-alone tix and hotels abroad not affected.

nk15

These are all likely predictors of survival, and these would vary by disease: treatment received or not, quality and type of treatment, time of treatment, patient age, overall health/comorbidity, and probably a bunch of other clinical and non clinical variables, most of which should be known for most diseases, and likely many still unknown.

invisible

Things are not going in right direction...

2020.01.24 - 1287 +457
2020.01.25 - 1975 +668

JPDM

The issue is that it does not mean that the virus is spreading. It means that more people are being diagnosed. Hard to tell if it is spreading or not.