Jan 27, 2020, 9:09 am
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Aug 10, 2021, 5:16 am
#8941
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Looks like I’ll be in line for a third vaccine shot eventually.
https://www.reuters.com/business/hea...me-2021-08-09/
Originally Posted by Reuters
The mRNA vaccine from Pfizer (PFE.N) and BioNTech (22UAy.DE) may be less effective than Moderna's against the Delta variant of the coronavirus, according to two reports posted on medRxiv on Sunday ahead of peer review. In a study of more than 50,000 patients in the Mayo Clinic Health System, researchers found the effectiveness of Moderna's vaccine against infection had dropped to 76% in July - when the Delta variant was predominant - from 86% in early 2021. Over the same period, the effectiveness of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine had fallen to 42% from 76%, researchers said. While both vaccines remain effective at preventing COVID hospitalization, a Moderna booster shot may be necessary soon for anyone who got the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines earlier this year, said Dr. Venky Soundararajan of Massachusetts data analytics company nference, who led the Mayo study.
In a separate study, elderly nursing home residents in Ontario produced stronger immune responses - especially to worrisome variants - after the Moderna vaccine than after the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. The elderly may need higher vaccine doses, boosters, and other preventative measures, said Anne-Claude Gingras of the Lunenfeld-Tanenbaum Research Institute in Toronto, who led the Canadian study. When asked to comment on both research reports, a Pfizer spokesperson said, "We continue to believe... a third dose booster may be needed within 6 to 12 months after full vaccination to maintain the highest levels of protection."
…..
People who received their second dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine five or more months ago are more likely to test positive for COVID-19 than people who were fully vaccinated less than five months ago, new data suggest. Researchers studied nearly 34,000 fully vaccinated adults in Israel who were tested to see if they had a breakthrough case of COVID-19. Overall, 1.8% tested positive. At all ages, the odds of testing positive were higher when the last vaccine dose was received at least 146 days earlier, the research team reported Thursday on medRxiv ahead of peer review. Among patients older than 60, the odds of a positive test were almost three times higher when at least 146 days had passed since the second dose. Most of the new infections were observed recently, said coauthor Dr. Eugene Merzon of Leumit Health Services in Israel. "Very few patients had required hospitalization, and it is too early to assess the severity of these new infections in terms of hospital admission, need for mechanical ventilation or mortality," he added. "We are planning to continue our research."
In a separate study, elderly nursing home residents in Ontario produced stronger immune responses - especially to worrisome variants - after the Moderna vaccine than after the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. The elderly may need higher vaccine doses, boosters, and other preventative measures, said Anne-Claude Gingras of the Lunenfeld-Tanenbaum Research Institute in Toronto, who led the Canadian study. When asked to comment on both research reports, a Pfizer spokesperson said, "We continue to believe... a third dose booster may be needed within 6 to 12 months after full vaccination to maintain the highest levels of protection."
…..
People who received their second dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine five or more months ago are more likely to test positive for COVID-19 than people who were fully vaccinated less than five months ago, new data suggest. Researchers studied nearly 34,000 fully vaccinated adults in Israel who were tested to see if they had a breakthrough case of COVID-19. Overall, 1.8% tested positive. At all ages, the odds of testing positive were higher when the last vaccine dose was received at least 146 days earlier, the research team reported Thursday on medRxiv ahead of peer review. Among patients older than 60, the odds of a positive test were almost three times higher when at least 146 days had passed since the second dose. Most of the new infections were observed recently, said coauthor Dr. Eugene Merzon of Leumit Health Services in Israel. "Very few patients had required hospitalization, and it is too early to assess the severity of these new infections in terms of hospital admission, need for mechanical ventilation or mortality," he added. "We are planning to continue our research."
Aug 10, 2021, 7:15 am
#8942
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However, there is a promising signal of little to no rising virulence among the young, which subsumes in the age-stratified incidences reported at CDC.
Risk for COVID-19 Infection, Hospitalization, and Death By Age Group
- All rates are relative to the 18- to 29-year-old age category. This group was selected as the reference group because it has accounted for the largest cumulative number of COVID-19 cases compared to other age groups. Sample interpretation: Compared with 18- to 29-year-olds, the rate of death is four times higher in 30- to 39-year-olds, and 600 times higher in those who are 85 years and older. (In the table, a rate of 1x indicates no difference compared to the 18- to 29-year-old age category.) –
- All rates are relative to the 18- to 29-year-old age category. This group was selected as the reference group because it has accounted for the largest cumulative number of COVID-19 cases compared to other age groups. Sample interpretation: Compared with 18- to 29-year-olds, the rate of death is four times higher in 30- to 39-year-olds, and 600 times higher in those who are 85 years and older. (In the table, a rate of 1x indicates no difference compared to the 18- to 29-year-old age category.) –
Below-18s who are mostly unvaccinated are still doing great in the severity measures. Coronavirus practically bounces off naive young’uns and onto us.
Aug 10, 2021, 7:52 am
#8943
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Yes, certain conclusions are still a ways off. Answers should be forthcoming in later studies of Delta effects on resistant sub-populations.
However, there is a promising signal of little to no rising virulence among the young, which subsumes in the age-stratified incidences reported at CDC.
Below-18s who are mostly unvaccinated are still doing great in the severity measures. Coronavirus practically bounces off naive young’uns and onto us.
However, there is a promising signal of little to no rising virulence among the young, which subsumes in the age-stratified incidences reported at CDC.
Below-18s who are mostly unvaccinated are still doing great in the severity measures. Coronavirus practically bounces off naive young’uns and onto us.
Aug 10, 2021, 10:47 am
#8944
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The CDC panel shows generalized trend 20 days in. I have no reason to assume that it is not broad or timely enough to reflect early-Q3 Delta inroads into the population.
Besides, the presentation aligns with the views of top specialists in the field.
Besides, the presentation aligns with the views of top specialists in the field.
Do kids need the COVID-19 vaccine urgently? Experts weigh in
- Dr. Cody Meissner, a VRBPAC member and director of Pediatric Infectious disease at Tufts University, argued there simply isn’t an emergency when it comes to children, pointing to coronavirus hospitalization rates that are now hovering around four per million in those under 18 years old. “It is a very low hospitalization rate. The rates are also falling pretty dramatically among adults and children,” Meissner said, adding: “I do not feel we can justify an EUA including children.” –
- Dr. Monica Gandhi, an infectious disease physician and professor at The University of California San Francisco, agrees there should not be a rush to vaccinate younger children, pointing to an 84% drop in cases among children since adult vaccinations began – and a nearly 70% reduction in child hospitalizations. “Children have a threefold less chance of getting COVID with the same exposure, than adults,” Gandhi said. “They are essentially half as likely to spread. So if they have it in their nose, they can't spread it as well as adults because of lower viral load. Then on top of it, they are more likely to not have any symptomatic infection or at least not severe infection, which is just a blessing with COVID.”
Gandhi is not a member of VRBPAC, but she and Meissner both express concern with a small but sizable group of vaccinated teens and young adults diagnosed with myocarditis or pericarditis – which is inflammation of the heart – after receiving the mRNA COVID-19 vaccines. A majority of the 573 cases occurred days after receiving the second dose of the vaccine. –
- Dr. Cody Meissner, a VRBPAC member and director of Pediatric Infectious disease at Tufts University, argued there simply isn’t an emergency when it comes to children, pointing to coronavirus hospitalization rates that are now hovering around four per million in those under 18 years old. “It is a very low hospitalization rate. The rates are also falling pretty dramatically among adults and children,” Meissner said, adding: “I do not feel we can justify an EUA including children.” –
- Dr. Monica Gandhi, an infectious disease physician and professor at The University of California San Francisco, agrees there should not be a rush to vaccinate younger children, pointing to an 84% drop in cases among children since adult vaccinations began – and a nearly 70% reduction in child hospitalizations. “Children have a threefold less chance of getting COVID with the same exposure, than adults,” Gandhi said. “They are essentially half as likely to spread. So if they have it in their nose, they can't spread it as well as adults because of lower viral load. Then on top of it, they are more likely to not have any symptomatic infection or at least not severe infection, which is just a blessing with COVID.”
Gandhi is not a member of VRBPAC, but she and Meissner both express concern with a small but sizable group of vaccinated teens and young adults diagnosed with myocarditis or pericarditis – which is inflammation of the heart – after receiving the mRNA COVID-19 vaccines. A majority of the 573 cases occurred days after receiving the second dose of the vaccine. –
Aug 10, 2021, 10:54 am
#8945
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Aug 10, 2021, 10:58 am
#8946
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Monica Gandhi — the one affiliated with UCSF — may have revised her thoughts in July. A couple of weeks ago, she certainly seemed open to the idea that the Delta variant had changed the game in ways with children and also with the vaccinated, adults and otherwise.
Aug 10, 2021, 11:05 am
#8947
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Risk for COVID-19 Infection, Hospitalization, and Death By Age Group
- 2 Includes all cases reported by state and territorial jurisdictions (accessed on July 12, 2021). The denominators used to calculate rates were based on the 2019 Vintage populationexternal icon.
3 Includes all hospitalizations reported through COVID-NET (from March 1, 2020 through July 3, 2021, accessed on July 12, 2021). Rates were standardized to the 2020 US standard COVID-NET catchment population.
4 Includes all deaths in National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) provisional death counts (accessed on July 12, 2021). The denominators used to calculate rates were based on the 2019 Vintage population. –
- 2 Includes all cases reported by state and territorial jurisdictions (accessed on July 12, 2021). The denominators used to calculate rates were based on the 2019 Vintage populationexternal icon.
3 Includes all hospitalizations reported through COVID-NET (from March 1, 2020 through July 3, 2021, accessed on July 12, 2021). Rates were standardized to the 2020 US standard COVID-NET catchment population.
4 Includes all deaths in National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) provisional death counts (accessed on July 12, 2021). The denominators used to calculate rates were based on the 2019 Vintage population. –
Hospitalizations are big but only a part of the picture, what is lacking is characterization of clinical outcomes.
Aug 10, 2021, 11:05 pm
#8948
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interesting data analysis from NYTime on breakthrough infections; no breakdown by age unfortunately
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...gtype=Homepage
STATE - BREAKTHROUGH HOSPITALIZATIONS - AS A PCT. OF ALL COVID HOSPITALIZATIONS - BREAKTHROUGH DEATHS - AS A PCT. OF ALL COVID DEATHS
Alabama 77 0.3% 21 0.4%
Alaska 17 2.0% 2 3.3%
Arizona 379 0.5% 34 0.3%
Arkansas — 4.7% — 2.6%
California 843 0.4% 88 0.5%
Colorado 312 1.2% 52 3.1%
...
HOSPITALIZATION RATE PER 100,000 FOR VACCINATED PEOPLE - FOR UNVACCINATED PEOPLE --- DEATH RATE PER 100,000 FOR VACCINATED PEOPLE - FOR UNVACCINATED PEOPLE
Alabama 9 696 75x higher for unvaccinated people 3 124 48x higher for unvaccinated people
Alaska 9 154 17x 1 11 10x
Arizona 27 1,306 47x 2 182 73x
California 9 647 68x 1.0 58 58x
Colorado 24 567 22x 4 37 8x
..
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...gtype=Homepage
STATE - BREAKTHROUGH HOSPITALIZATIONS - AS A PCT. OF ALL COVID HOSPITALIZATIONS - BREAKTHROUGH DEATHS - AS A PCT. OF ALL COVID DEATHS
Alabama 77 0.3% 21 0.4%
Alaska 17 2.0% 2 3.3%
Arizona 379 0.5% 34 0.3%
Arkansas — 4.7% — 2.6%
California 843 0.4% 88 0.5%
Colorado 312 1.2% 52 3.1%
...
HOSPITALIZATION RATE PER 100,000 FOR VACCINATED PEOPLE - FOR UNVACCINATED PEOPLE --- DEATH RATE PER 100,000 FOR VACCINATED PEOPLE - FOR UNVACCINATED PEOPLE
Alabama 9 696 75x higher for unvaccinated people 3 124 48x higher for unvaccinated people
Alaska 9 154 17x 1 11 10x
Arizona 27 1,306 47x 2 182 73x
California 9 647 68x 1.0 58 58x
Colorado 24 567 22x 4 37 8x
..
Aug 10, 2021, 11:18 pm
#8949
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interesting data analysis from NYTime on breakthrough infections; no breakdown by age unfortunately
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...gtype=Homepage
STATE - BREAKTHROUGH HOSPITALIZATIONS - AS A PCT. OF ALL COVID HOSPITALIZATIONS - BREAKTHROUGH DEATHS - AS A PCT. OF ALL COVID DEATHS
Alabama 77 0.3% 21 0.4%
Alaska 17 2.0% 2 3.3%
Arizona 379 0.5% 34 0.3%
Arkansas — 4.7% — 2.6%
California 843 0.4% 88 0.5%
Colorado 312 1.2% 52 3.1%
...
HOSPITALIZATION RATE PER 100,000 FOR VACCINATED PEOPLE - FOR UNVACCINATED PEOPLE --- DEATH RATE PER 100,000 FOR VACCINATED PEOPLE - FOR UNVACCINATED PEOPLE
Alabama 9 696 75x higher for unvaccinated people 3 124 48x higher for unvaccinated people
Alaska 9 154 17x 1 11 10x
Arizona 27 1,306 47x 2 182 73x
California 9 647 68x 1.0 58 58x
Colorado 24 567 22x 4 37 8x
..
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...gtype=Homepage
STATE - BREAKTHROUGH HOSPITALIZATIONS - AS A PCT. OF ALL COVID HOSPITALIZATIONS - BREAKTHROUGH DEATHS - AS A PCT. OF ALL COVID DEATHS
Alabama 77 0.3% 21 0.4%
Alaska 17 2.0% 2 3.3%
Arizona 379 0.5% 34 0.3%
Arkansas — 4.7% — 2.6%
California 843 0.4% 88 0.5%
Colorado 312 1.2% 52 3.1%
...
HOSPITALIZATION RATE PER 100,000 FOR VACCINATED PEOPLE - FOR UNVACCINATED PEOPLE --- DEATH RATE PER 100,000 FOR VACCINATED PEOPLE - FOR UNVACCINATED PEOPLE
Alabama 9 696 75x higher for unvaccinated people 3 124 48x higher for unvaccinated people
Alaska 9 154 17x 1 11 10x
Arizona 27 1,306 47x 2 182 73x
California 9 647 68x 1.0 58 58x
Colorado 24 567 22x 4 37 8x
..
These numbers are too low to ignore error bars. My guess is if this was somehow pooled, you get to the prescribed 90+% efficacy.
Barring that, you need data which reflects overall population of vax vs unvax, as the article says, so you can start with the 90+% hypothesis and predict what percentage you would expect.
My cursory look does not show hix vax states as having high percentage of hospitalizations, for instance.
It's good data, just poor analysis.
Aug 11, 2021, 3:35 pm
#8950
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According to the CDC, COVID-19 child hospitalizations set a new record high — and were up 27% from the prior week — with nearly 1,600 children hospitalized in the covered hospitals as Covid-19 cases. Children hospitals’ ICUs in varying parts of the South and elsewhere have been full or nearly full due to children with COVID-19. But sometimes at these hospitals it doesn’t even take a lot of extra demand for the ICU capacity to be reached quickly.
Pediatric hospitalization data is fragmentary in the country, even for the CDC.
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/0...-reopen-503885
Pediatric hospitalization data is fragmentary in the country, even for the CDC.
The number of kids infected with Covid-19 is soaring as the highly contagious Delta variant spreads and schools reopen, pushing children's hospitals around the country to the brink.
Nearly 1,600 kids with Covid-19 were hospitalized last week, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — a new seven-day record and a 27 percent increase from the week before. Tennessee’s health commissioner expects the state’s children’s hospitals to be full by the week’s end. Louisiana reached that point more than a week ago. And Arkansas’ only children’s hospital has just two ICU beds remaining.
…..
Still, there is growing concern among health professionals that more children are showing up in worse condition than at any previous point during the pandemic. And children’s hospitals were already struggling as 2021 began — having lost staff and space as states rushed to deal with previous Covid surges in adults, leaving facilities for kids unable to handle even a small surge in pediatric cases.
“We’re crowded in New York, we're crowded in Chicago, we’re crowded in Denver, Los Angeles, Houston, Texas, Miami. You can go right around the horn,” Wietecha said. “They are full, every bed, and we normally don't have that in August.”
Nearly 1,600 kids with Covid-19 were hospitalized last week, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — a new seven-day record and a 27 percent increase from the week before. Tennessee’s health commissioner expects the state’s children’s hospitals to be full by the week’s end. Louisiana reached that point more than a week ago. And Arkansas’ only children’s hospital has just two ICU beds remaining.
…..
Still, there is growing concern among health professionals that more children are showing up in worse condition than at any previous point during the pandemic. And children’s hospitals were already struggling as 2021 began — having lost staff and space as states rushed to deal with previous Covid surges in adults, leaving facilities for kids unable to handle even a small surge in pediatric cases.
“We’re crowded in New York, we're crowded in Chicago, we’re crowded in Denver, Los Angeles, Houston, Texas, Miami. You can go right around the horn,” Wietecha said. “They are full, every bed, and we normally don't have that in August.”
Last edited by GUWonder; Aug 11, 2021 at 3:42 pm
Aug 11, 2021, 5:37 pm
#8951
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I've read that a lot of the children's ICU bed problem is due to RSV, which is spreading like wildfire here in Houston where I live. My family caught it a few weeks ago.
Aug 12, 2021, 12:45 am
#8952
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She was in the far front to advocate that vaccinated people need not to wear face mask in restaurants. Until CDC in May announced that vaccinated people can safely not wearing masks indoor, she repeated criticize CDC in UCSF Grand Rounds and media interviews, with rather unimpressive arguments. Now she has to eat her words.
Aug 12, 2021, 12:57 am
#8953
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Originally Posted by Reuters
In a study of more than 50,000 patients in the Mayo Clinic Health System, researchers found the effectiveness of Moderna's vaccine against infection had dropped to 76% in July - when the Delta variant was predominant - from 86% in early 2021. Over the same period, the effectiveness of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine had fallen to 42% from 76%, researchers said. While both vaccines remain effective at preventing COVID hospitalization, a Moderna booster shot may be necessary soon for anyone who got the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines earlier this year, said Dr. Venky Soundararajan of Massachusetts data analytics company nference, who led the Mayo study.
In a study of more than 50,000 patients in the Mayo Clinic Health System, researchers found the effectiveness of Moderna's vaccine against infection had dropped to 76% in July - when the Delta variant was predominant - from 86% in early 2021. Over the same period, the effectiveness of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine had fallen to 42% from 76%, researchers said. While both vaccines remain effective at preventing COVID hospitalization, a Moderna booster shot may be necessary soon for anyone who got the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines earlier this year, said Dr. Venky Soundararajan of Massachusetts data analytics company nference, who led the Mayo study.
Aug 12, 2021, 7:08 am
#8954
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It is not enough to slice only hospitalization numbers when scoping things like capacity stress, especially with overstated fatality.
Children’s hospitals are swamped with Covid patients — and it may only get worse
- As dire as the situation is now, hospital leaders and public health officials predict it will get even worse in the coming weeks. They are already contending with unseasonably high levels of RSV, a respiratory virus that can be dangerous for young children and infants. Flu season is on the horizon. And schools across the country are welcoming children back, creating opportunities for Covid-19 and other viruses to spread even faster. –
- Even as pediatric cases spike, doctors and scientists say there is not enough evidence to determine whether Delta causes children to become sicker than earlier Covid variants did. The overwhelming majority of children who contract the virus don’t require hospitalization, and pediatric deaths still make up less than one-tenth of one percent of all pandemic deaths, according to the CDC. Although states normally take longer to investigate pediatric deaths, creating a lag in that data, it’s not enough to meaningfully change the overall conclusion that Covid-19 remains far more dangerous for adults. –
- Patients at Children’s of Mississippi hospital in Jackson often have to wait hours in the emergency room for a bed to clear because the facility has been slammed with RSV and coronavirus cases. In recent days, the hospital has had between 13 and 16 kids with Covid admitted at any one time — about twice the number it saw during January’s peak, said pediatrics chair Mary Taylor. She said people are wrong to assume that Delta isn’t a threat to children, especially if they are in crowded schools without masks. “It’s misleading because during the first go-round, there were children with zero symptoms,” she said. “Now, they are more symptomatic and are at far greater risk of spreading it and they seem to be getting sicker.” –
- As dire as the situation is now, hospital leaders and public health officials predict it will get even worse in the coming weeks. They are already contending with unseasonably high levels of RSV, a respiratory virus that can be dangerous for young children and infants. Flu season is on the horizon. And schools across the country are welcoming children back, creating opportunities for Covid-19 and other viruses to spread even faster. –
- Even as pediatric cases spike, doctors and scientists say there is not enough evidence to determine whether Delta causes children to become sicker than earlier Covid variants did. The overwhelming majority of children who contract the virus don’t require hospitalization, and pediatric deaths still make up less than one-tenth of one percent of all pandemic deaths, according to the CDC. Although states normally take longer to investigate pediatric deaths, creating a lag in that data, it’s not enough to meaningfully change the overall conclusion that Covid-19 remains far more dangerous for adults. –
- Patients at Children’s of Mississippi hospital in Jackson often have to wait hours in the emergency room for a bed to clear because the facility has been slammed with RSV and coronavirus cases. In recent days, the hospital has had between 13 and 16 kids with Covid admitted at any one time — about twice the number it saw during January’s peak, said pediatrics chair Mary Taylor. She said people are wrong to assume that Delta isn’t a threat to children, especially if they are in crowded schools without masks. “It’s misleading because during the first go-round, there were children with zero symptoms,” she said. “Now, they are more symptomatic and are at far greater risk of spreading it and they seem to be getting sicker.” –
Clinical outcomes are best accounted for when studying admission volumes with extremely low terminal trend, but the data is not readily available.
Last edited by FlitBen; Aug 12, 2021 at 7:26 am
Aug 12, 2021, 11:11 am
#8955
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The measures that act as a restraint on the spread of Covid-19 also acted as a restraint on the spread of RSV. The easing of Covid-19 restrictions have meant pediatric wards at Houston area hospitals are busy/busier with both infections — and this at a time when Covid-19 hospitalizations for children there are at or near a pandemic peak … at levels that were not seen for child hospitalizations in 2020.