PanAmWT

Why this strain is not called the Denmark variant?

Worrisome coronavirus variant now linked to half of cases in California

New evidence suggests a more aggressive strain, spreading faster and causing worse illness

https://www.mercurynews.com/2021/02/22/worrisome-coronavirus-variant-now-linked-to-half-of-cases-in-california

lobo411

Case counts started out higher in SoCal vs NorCal because SoCal is more heavily/densely populated, so in NorCal they're flirting with the Red and Orange tiers. But most of SoCal is still in the Purple Tier, and it's going to take a while for that reservoir of high case counts to drain. But it's happening.

In my county, Riverside, the positivity rate in mid-January was 25.2%. It's now 7.6%.

lobo411

It's my understanding that the "California variant" is not believed to be a mutation of "original" covid. It's believed to be a merger of two mutant strains (the Denmark strain and the UK strain).

https://weather.com/en-IN/india/coro...mutated-hybrid

exp

Actually the scary potential is that it mixes in one person with another variant and we get a super variant.

For instance, the UK B.1.1.7 is more infectious because it takes more than twice as long to clear from the body, during which time the infected person could spread the virus. Specifically, it didn't exhibit higher viral load as some feared.

But the CA B.1.427/429 does exhibit double the viral load.

So a super variant could have double the viral load and for twice as long.

PanAmWT

Rutherford said that the masking in Bay Area has been more prevalent from the beginning and continue to be the case. I have not been to Southern CA for a year, but in the last six months whenever I go out, it is rare to spot one person without mask on the streets of San Francisco or San Mateo.

lobo411

More people have been masking down here too, but the variable that seems to have the most dramatic impact on covid is the same variable that affects health outcomes across the US: Poverty. SoCal has a lot more poverty than the Bay Area.

Poor people have more dangerous jobs (can't work from home when you stock grocery shelves), they live in densified housing, and they're reluctant to go to the doctor because they don't have an assurance of affordable care. This despite the gov't's assurance of "free" covid care. When you hear stories like the one below, as a poor person, you don't go to the doctor unless you're dying.

https://www.latimes.com/california/s...urance-waivers

spotbeagle

Thanks for posting this. I have dealt with ITP since 1996 in a chronic state for all but the last 10 years as I am technically in remission. The true cause of ITP in most patients (< 50,000 in the US) is not typically determined in most patients. Acute cases, although infrequent, can occur following vaccination and most of these vaccine triggered ITP cases respond well to traditional treatments and within a few weeks are back to normal. Will this prevent me from getting the COVID vaccine when it is available to me, absolutely not. The risk of recurrence, IMHO, is very low and the benefit of the vaccine far outweighs this risk.

fransknorge

Most likely there were mutations that provided a variant with lower transmission rate and lower viral load. Such a variant would be at disadvantage as it would not replicate fast enough and would disappear in the current competitive environment for people's throat. Darwinism 101.

Meanwhile in Germany the Czech effect is visible and is used by the German government to justify the closure of the border with Czech republic. Czech republic is having a deadly third wave (https://english.radio.cz/80-percent-...n-says-8710091), their hospitals are full again (they asked for international cooperation to ship patients abroad). The results is that this transpires on the territories bordering Czech republic:


(Blue Curve: German cases
Orange curve: Czech republic cases)

lobo411

It looks like a real divergence is occurring between the EU and the United States, and we may be at the point where vaccination is starting to really impact outcomes. The University of Washington's IHME models are predicting a general decline in case counts in both regions, but they're also predicting localized surges in several European countries. It looks like the EU is still projected to perform far below its abilities when it comes to vaccination. From what I can gather, the difference between the "Reference Rollout" and "Rapid Rollout" scenarios is not vaccine production/availability (which is not something governments can change). The difference seems to be vaccine education and vaccination infrastructure campaigns (which governments absolutely can change).


The vaccination forecast for the EU. Note the huge gap between the projected vaccine rollout (green line) and the rapid rollout (blue line). The EU could be doing a whole lot better, but they aren't:





Now here's the US vaccination forecast. Note that there's practically no difference between the projected rollout and the rapid rollout. IE, we're already performing at optimal efficiency



COVID-19 resources | Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

stimpy

Study says that when given at the right time, the Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG), could protect newborns against a variety of common conditions such as upper respiratory tract infections, chest complications like pneumonia or bronchitis, diarrhea and potentially Covid-19.

https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea...munity-3302448 which notes articles from Lancet.

fransknorge

BCG was (is ?) mandatory in France and ex-East Germany. Not sure to observe any effects of this vaccine on the population in those two countries.

freedom2020

If Israel is not at the point after 50% of population vaccinated with at least 1 dose and 35% got both, not sure when US will reach this point, if ever. The daily cases are still higher in Israel than in US, per million population. Wonder why there is still no doubt/explanation for this discrepancy (between the touted vaccine protection on paper and ongoing transmission in reality)

lobo411

They only recently started vaccinating young people, which is where almost all of the transmission occurs. We've known this for months, but it bears repeating:

If you want to end covid ASAP, and possibly lower the overall death toll by stopping the spread quickly, vaccinate young people first.

If you want to lower death rates ASAP, and possibly accumulate a higher final death toll because the spread continues, vaccinate the oldest people first.

8420PR

While the EU has no responsibility for the vaccination program, by most measures the member countries are performing very poorly on vaccination. The EMA approved the vaccines later than US, but not by an amount that would explain the delay.





My local paper has stories about German doctors refusing the AZ vaccine and instead waiting for the Pfizer vaccine to become available, which might explain why only 15% has actually been used.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN2AO1EK

LAXlocal

CureVac's and Bayer have a mRNA vaccine in 3rd phase testing , 225 million doses ordered for EU

CureVac's jab used the same mRNA technology as the BioNTech-Pfizer vaccine, which is also produced in Germany, and the US-made Moderna vaccine.

https://www.dw.com/en/curevac-eu-vac...jab/a-56548696

Is this a game changer , or just another of the vaccines that are being tested and will help fill the hole of the billions of doses needed ?