ProleOnParole

New EXO-CD24 drug shows promising results in preliminary trials. The medicine works by preventing cytokine storms, allowing recovery within 3 to 5 days in moderate to serious cases: https://www.timesofisrael.com/new-is...days-hospital/

Edit: This particular study is set to conclude in the end of March. Some more details here: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04747574

DaveS

Here is the death rate graph for Sweden. Judge for your selves if it is dropping. Adjusting for population size, at around 10 deaths per day it is a little more than 10% of the rate we are seeing in the UK now.

fransknorge

The way Sweden reports death means the last 2 weeks are always dropping. They report death on a given day is backdated to the day of death, so since there is a delay of 1 week to 1 month for death to be reported, there is a lag. The death added today were mostly for mid january to mid february.
This is visible here: in red are the deaths which were reported the 11th January, you can see how they are mostly for December. And if you compare with the graph you posted you see that in your graph, early january is a plateau while it was decreasing with the graph from mid-january. The Sweden graph is done in a way that it always look like the last two weeks are decreasing, even if they are not.
This is explained here and here:
https://adamaltmejd.se/covid/
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-sweden-death-reporting

fransknorge

The trend is changing and start to increase in half of Europe:


https://www.meteo-covid.com/carte-variation-europe

DaveS

Even with delays in reporting, the figures still appear to be dropping. The constant debate about the Swedish approach gets a little tiring for me. It is far more interesting to try to understand why infection rates are dropping so rapidly in Europe/US. I don't find arguments for herd immunity, improved hygiene practices, increased lockdown compliance etc very convincing. It is still far from spring. Here in the UK, the vaccine roll out may just be starting to influence the infection figures. But they have been dropping for some time now. The 'why' question has been asked here enough times, but no one has managed a good answer yet.

FlitBen

Looking at the OWID chart, note that Sweden’s reported death rate on 10 Jan is ~10.xx per million. This contrasts with a 7.4x per capita rate on 5 Feb.
The above facts translate to a rate decrease from around 10 to 7.4 on average. What is the explanation for why such a downtrend, which is also reported for much of the EU, should not be recognized as a “drop” in incidence?

Also note the per-capita case rate downtrend from 736.x to 298.x, during the same interval:

I have not heard of sewage tests being used as a proxy for diagnostic caseload regarding disease burden. These are reportedly helpful in identifying areas for serosurvey and other surveillance.

Have you checked for suspect politicization in the ACSH articles posted so far? I have a few more which you might find questionable, like this critical piece on ‘5G-Covid’ movements.
Do you think we should be skeptical of these ACSH reviews?

fransknorge

They always appear to drop, that is the problem. For what is happening today you need to wait mid-March to know.

Correct, nobody knows. You think that epidemiologists and virologists are quietly sitting on their hands instead of working to figure it out ?
https://slate.com/technology/2021/02...s-falling.html

PxC

Especially when the dominant Kent strain is meant to increase transmission by 50% Add to that this lockdown is a lot looser than the first, it is strange, though encouraging. Assuming a 26 day delay to vaccines effectiveness and the lag to come through to numbers only about 10% of the population will be protected in todays infection figures, and less so for deaths. That will increase by about 5% a week so it will be really interesting in 3-4 weeks.

jmastron

I gave a possible answer -- I strongly suspect behavior *did* change from November/December (with school vacations and holiday travel, parties, gatherings, dropping off some presents and "I'll just wave. Oh okay let's talk on the porch. Oh it's cold so inside for a minute is okay right?") to January (kids back in school, many remote/distanced hybrid, just not that as many events or reasons to gather).

And there's probably some wave effect on behaviors -- there's a baseline of folks who aren't going to stop gathering no matter what, and a baseline who will stay home and/or take extreme measures when out no matter what. But there are a LOT of people in the middle, consciously or subconsciously -- when rates are low and they can put it out of mind they're somewhat less careful, which can assist in a rise in rates, but when rates are higher and they start knowing people personally who are sick, have relatives hospitalized etc, start taking better precautions, enough to eventually assist in lowering the rates.

Once we get to the next step -- sustained very low caseload and no major increase for a few months, or another wave of increase, we'll have better answers. It's great to appreciate the improvement and speculate on the causes, and to take advantage of it by reopening more things safely, but it might be a bit soon to declare "Mission Accomplished" and open the nightclubs and concerts just yet (I'm not suggesting that you're saying that)...

PanAmWT

Key reasons coronavirus cases are plunging across the Bay Area and California
https://www.sfchronicle.com/health/a...s-15964640.php

Human behavior (and the holidays)

The biggest factor driving the drop in coronavirus numbers may be that we are well past the Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year’s holidays, with their associated social gatherings and travel, said Dr. Stephen Shortell, dean emeritus of the School of Public Health at UC Berkeley. “That has to be taken into account now that we’re into February and going toward March,” he said. “There’s been no big holidays and social events where people crowd together.”

lobo411

The problem with Dr. Shortell's guess (and it is just a guess) is that we saw a coordinated, global surge on every inhabited continent. How did American Thanksgiving cause a surge in Brazil? How did Grand-pere Noel bring a surge to South Korea? And then like clockwork, 6-8 weeks later, we saw a coordinated, global recession on every inhabited continent. Why are cases receding in "doing it right" countries like Japan...but they're also receding in countries run by morons like AMLO in Mexico and Bolsonaro in Brazil?

Human behavior is subjective and it doesn't seem terribly relevant to me. Biology is objective, so for me, it has the greatest explanatory power.

VCURamFan

The media was in full fledged fervor of a soon to come Super Bowl spike three weeks ago, that does not appear to be happening. There were countless doom and gloom articles about how gatherings would cause a surge, and a lot of fear mongering about how bad things would get in Florida following the event. Quite frustrating that they write these articles before a surge occurs, then never publish anything saying they were wrong.

Even in Tampa numbers are falling fast, where there were thousands of maskless fans celebrating victory, and thousands crowding Ybor City maskless in the week leading up to the Super Bowl. I go out to eat 4-5 times a week and there is basically 0 social distancing in most of Florida, and there hasn't been for months. Every seat at the bar filled, every table in a restaurant used, most places are identical to how they were pre Covid except for servers wearing masks and the occassional worthless QR menu.

I do not see behavior changing in Florida except for things are continually getting more and more open, yet the case # and positivity rate is plummeting. I'm sure behavior may have changed in other areas, but cases are falling in every state, regardless of restriction/behavior.

It really seems to be mostly caused by seroprevalence, imho.

lobo411

The narrative is starting to change, finally. From yesterday's LA Times:

https://www.latimes.com/california/s...ummeting-cases

freedom2020

If natural herd immunity is the reason, then Manaus Brazil has been telling us there will be another wave in the coming winter.

PanAmWT

Very good point! Although because of the calendar of New Year, Xmas to New Year holidays is near worldwide regardless of the dominant culture or faith.

I assume countries like Japan is not anywhere close to any kind of herd immunity.

Very reasonable. I am look forward to the next Thursday's UCSF Grand Rounds, expecting Rutherford will talk about this.