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Old Jan 27, 2020, 9:09 am
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Coronavirus / COVID-19 : general fact-based reporting

 
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Old Feb 8, 2021, 11:52 am
  #7381  
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This seems like the right place for this story:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-vacc...ay-11612693803

As WSJ is paywalled I provide a snip here:

As Covid-19 Vaccines Raise Hope, Cold Reality Dawns That Illness Is Likely Here to StayVaccination drives hold out the promise of curbing Covid-19, but governments and businesses are increasingly accepting what epidemiologists have long warned: The pathogen will circulate for years, or even decades, leaving society to coexist with Covid-19 much as it does with other endemic diseases like flu, measles, and HIV.

The ease with which the coronavirus spreads, the emergence of new strains and poor access to vaccines in large parts of the world mean Covid-19 could shift from a pandemic disease to an endemic one, implying lasting modifications to personal and societal behavior, epidemiologists say.

***

Endemic Covid-19 doesn’t necessarily mean continuing coronavirus restrictions, infectious-disease experts said, largely because vaccines are so effective at preventing severe disease and slashing hospitalizations and deaths. Hospitalizations have already fallen 30% in Israel after it vaccinated a third of its population. Deaths there are expected to plummet in weeks ahead.

But some organizations are planning for a long-term future in which prevention methods such as masking, good ventilation and testing continue in some form. Meanwhile, a new and potentially lucrative Covid-19 industry is emerging quickly, as businesses invest in goods and services such as air-quality monitoring, filters, diagnostic kits and new treatments.

The number of gene-detecting PCR tests produced globally is expected to grow this year, with companies like New Jersey’s Quest Diagnostics Inc. predicting that millions of people will need a swab before they attend concerts, basketball games or family functions.

“We assume it would last for years, or be eternal, such as the flu,” said Jiwon Lim, spokesman for South Korea’s SD Biosensor, Inc., a test maker that is ramping up production of at-home diagnostic kits. Leading drug makers—Switzerland’s Novartis International AG and Eli Lilly & Co.—have invested in potential Covid-19 therapies. More than 300 such products are currently in development.

Airlines like Lufthansa are restructuring to focus on short-haul flights within Europe, and away from Pacific countries that have said they’ll keep borders closed for at least this year. Some airports are planning new vaccine passport systems to allow inoculated passengers to travel. Restaurants are investing in more takeout and delivery offerings. Meatpacking plants from Canada to Europe are buying up robotic arms, to curb the risk of outbreaks by reducing the number of workers on assembly lines.

Diseases are considered endemic when they remain persistently present but manageable, like flu. The extent of the spread varies by disease and location, epidemiologists say. Rabies, malaria, HIV and Zika all are endemic infectious diseases, but their prevalence and human toll vary globally.

*** MORE
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Old Feb 8, 2021, 12:06 pm
  #7382  
 
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Originally Posted by TTT
The risk of more deaths will increase due to more infection of higher risk people. It doesn't mean the virus is more lethal.
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Old Feb 8, 2021, 12:13 pm
  #7383  
 
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Anyone has the covid hospitalized statistics from Israel? Their new daily case number hardly dropped although they have almost 40% of population got at least 1 dose and 22% with 2 doses. That really concerns me. I kept watching the figures since a month ago but hasn't seen any hope yet.
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Old Feb 8, 2021, 12:37 pm
  #7384  
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Originally Posted by freedom2020
Anyone has the covid hospitalized statistics from Israel? Their new daily case number hardly dropped although they have almost 40% of population got at least 1 dose and 22% with 2 doses. That really concerns me. I kept watching the figures since a month ago but hasn't seen any hope yet.
Close to 90% of people aged 60 and older in the country have received their first dose of Pfizer’s 2-dose vaccine so far. Now, data collected by Israel’s Ministry of Health show that there was a 41% drop in confirmed COVID-19 infections in that age group, and a 31% drop in hospitalizations from mid-January to early February. In comparison, for people aged 59 and younger — of which just more than 30% have been vaccinated — cases dropped by only 12% and hospitalizations by 5% over the same time. The figures are based on analysis of roughly a quarter of a million COVID-19 infections.



https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00316-4


And some good news today:

1. In vitro (so very early observations that might not be replicated in vivo) study shows BioNtech vaccine works well against the N501Y and E484K mutations, present in UK and ZA variants.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s415..._GL_NRJournals

2. The BioNtech vaccine reduces viral loads. It is an observation that indicates that the vaccine will reduce transmission. We knew this was probable but having some observations confirming it is always better. Pre-print available soon.
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Old Feb 8, 2021, 12:44 pm
  #7385  
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Israel has has several reports indicating reductions in infection rates among those already vaccinated.

The latest is data from a lab showing much lower viral load among the over 60 cohort:

Israel’s largest COVID-19 testing lab says it has found evidence indicating that the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine significantly reduces the transmissibility of the coronavirus, offering a tentative answer to one of the world’s most burning questions.

A paper published online Monday claims that positive test results of patients age 60 and over had up to 60 percent smaller viral loads on the test swab than the 40-59 age group, starting in mid-January, when most of Israel’s population age 60-plus had already been vaccinated with at least one dose.

The results were published by the MyHeritage lab, which handles more than 10,000 tests a day, in a study co-authored by several prominent scholars, including leading COVID-19 statistician Eran Segal of the Weizmann Institute of Science.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/vaccin...tudy-suggests/


The overall new case rate of Israel is still very high, much higher than for instance last summer and into the fall.

But they're gradually pushing out vaccinations to younger groups.
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Old Feb 8, 2021, 3:34 pm
  #7386  
 
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More and more imported Covid-19 cases in Taiwan are being discovered after the person has successfully passed the 14-day quarantine (daily covid-19 case reports from Taiwan)

Could it be that mandatory quarantines help increase the incubation period, by giving advantage to mutations with a longer incubation time?
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Old Feb 8, 2021, 4:10 pm
  #7387  
 
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My point is as long as the daily new case and hospitalized rate are still high, the vaccine alone will not help us resume normal life. Isolated controlled research data are far from convincing than the overall stats.
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Old Feb 8, 2021, 4:18 pm
  #7388  
 
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Originally Posted by cockpitvisit
More and more imported Covid-19 cases in Taiwan are being discovered after the person has successfully passed the 14-day quarantine (daily covid-19 case reports from Taiwan)

Could it be that mandatory quarantines help increase the incubation period, by giving advantage to mutations with a longer incubation time?
How many of those were quarantining alone vs with spouse/family -- meaning with others who also traveled and are thus all in quarantine? I've had a theory (that I'd be happy to be wrong about) that for multiple people 14 days isn't sufficient, because if only one of the group got infected but is asymptomatic, that allows for a delay in the 2nd person getting infected, on and on. Worst case detection delay might be 14 days times the number of people in the quarantine household/group.

Ironically, it might actually be worse if the family kind-of stays apart (but not totally); perhaps group quarantines should require everyone to gather and cough on each other a few times a day to speed up spread if it's going to happen. Not really suggesting that, of course.
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Old Feb 8, 2021, 4:42 pm
  #7389  
 
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Originally Posted by rhwbullhead
I was only able to secure a first shot appointment for my mother (who is 85) after trying multiple websites for ten days: Walgreens, Jewel, DuPage county sign up, cook county sign up (not even sure if they would have taken her though her primary care physician is in cook county next town over), and Meijer. I literally tried 4-6 times a day at various times including 3-4am. I finally kicked into an appointment at Jewel when I checked at 11pm. The location I got must have just loaded appointments and all were gone within ten minutes.

I sent to several friends of hers that are 65+ and no one else was awake so they weren't able to sign up. They haven't been able to get any appointments but they don't have someone checking as often as I was for my mother.​
My mother-in-law at about the same age is getting her first dose in a week. We too did the Cook county signup for her and regularly looked up the vaccination centers and various drug stores for available appointments.

In parallel fortunately, we also filled out a questionnaire with her doctor’s office, which is with the NorthShore medical group in east suburban Cook and Lake counties. Appointments there started to open up in the last week or two.
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Old Feb 8, 2021, 6:19 pm
  #7390  
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'No deportation risk' for illegal migrants getting vaccination [UK]

People living in the UK unlawfully won't be risking deportation by coming forward for a coronavirus jab, the government has said.

Ministers say they want everyone to get vaccinated and are urging illegal immigrants to register with a GP.

The vaccine is free, regardless of a person's immigration status.

However, the policy is not an amnesty for immigrants and no-one will be given leave to remain in the UK as a result of being vaccinated.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55978334
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Old Feb 8, 2021, 6:50 pm
  #7391  
 
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Numbers continue their absolute freefall in the US. Sunday was the first day below 100K cases since early November. Today comes in even lower at 87,000 cases (the lowest since 11/1), down an enormous amount from last Monday's 128,000 cases.

Tracing numbers back the last month of Mondays:

1/11: 219,000
1/18: 150,000
1/25: 152,000
2/1: 128,000
2/8: 87,000
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Old Feb 8, 2021, 7:35 pm
  #7392  
 
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Originally Posted by cockpitvisit
More and more imported Covid-19 cases in Taiwan are being discovered after the person has successfully passed the 14-day quarantine (daily covid-19 case reports from Taiwan)

Could it be that mandatory quarantines help increase the incubation period, by giving advantage to mutations with a longer incubation time?
More likely, that for someone quarantining alone, they were infected from another person in quarantine. This was recently the case in New Zealand. It was speculated that it could have been during outdoor exercise.
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Old Feb 9, 2021, 8:14 am
  #7393  
 
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This is the most realistic synopsis I have read so far relating to the utility of COVID-19 vaccines and the likely outcome of the pandemic:

While COVID-19 vaccines are very good—even unexpectedly good—at preventing disease, they are still unlikely to be good enough against transmission of the virus, which is key to herd immunity. On the whole, we should expect immunity to be less effective against transmission than against disease, to wane over time, and to be eroded by the new variants now emerging around the world. If vaccine efficacy against transmission falls below the herd-immunity threshold, then we would need to vaccinate more than 100 percent of the population to achieve herd immunity. In other words, it becomes downright impossible.
As I have previously thought, I believe herd immunity (as defined in this article) is impossible for COVID-19 with or without a vaccine.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...ccines/617973/
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Old Feb 9, 2021, 9:18 am
  #7394  
 
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Originally Posted by doctoravios
This is the most realistic synopsis I have read so far relating to the utility of COVID-19 vaccines and the likely outcome of the pandemic:

As I have previously thought, I believe herd immunity (as defined in this article) is impossible for COVID-19 with or without a vaccine.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...ccines/617973/
I have read that coronavirus is likely here to stay but the hope is that the vaccines can greatly lessen the chances of severe illness or death.
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Old Feb 9, 2021, 12:42 pm
  #7395  
 
Join Date: May 2013
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Originally Posted by VCURamFan
Numbers continue their absolute freefall in the US. Sunday was the first day below 100K cases since early November. Today comes in even lower at 87,000 cases (the lowest since 11/1), down an enormous amount from last Monday's 128,000 cases.

Tracing numbers back the last month of Mondays:

1/11: 219,000
1/18: 150,000
1/25: 152,000
2/1: 128,000
2/8: 87,000
Are they doing the same amount of tests ?

is the positive rate per 1000 going down as much ?
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