doctoravios

Yes, it would be great if the vaccines were to generate sterilizing immunity, but given that they don't and the population at highest risk for mortality are the least responsible for transmission, I think it will likely make little difference.

Yes, I agree with this assessment. It is likely that shifting what would have been a symptomatic case to an asymptomatic case would reduce duration of infectivity and that would certainly have an impact on transmission at population level, but I would say we don't yet know to what degree that impact is. We don't fully understand transmission dynamics. I think it's likely that fully asymptomatic people will shed less virus, but we also know that, by chance, outbreaks have occurred due to transmission from asymptomatic people (the one event that stands out for me is one of the index cases importing the virus from a conference in Singapore to the UK via Geneva. At least with symptomatic illness you can isolate as soon as someone has symptoms. With asymptomatic infection the only way you know is through opportunistic testing.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51481210

The one way to evaluate this robustly is through challenge trials. You know exactly when someone is infected and can serially measure viral load subsequently. It will be interesting to see if challenge studies still proceed now we are this far in with vaccine development. I suspect there is less impetus to see them through now.

TravelingZoomer

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...re-it-started/

“In the third week of 2021, clinical laboratories nationwide tested 23,549 specimens for influenza. Of those, just 0.3 percent (65 tests) turned up positive — a number that is, to put it mildly, absolutely wild.”

Covid-19 has invariably changed the world forever, but one lasting change I hope we all can keep is increased hygiene standards and attention to just generally not getting sick. We basically wiped out the flu (which, contrary to some popular belief, is not “just” a minor illness).

Hoping that we keep masks in public transport, at the very least.

rhwbullhead

Feb 2 PBS Frontline episode:
The untold story of the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic and how China responded. Chinese scientists and doctors, international disease experts and health officials reveal missed opportunities to suppress the outbreak and lessons for the world.

tracon

Canada bans cruise ships until February 2022.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/princ...022-1.5901198A ban on cruise ships with more than 100 people coming to Canada will remain in place until February 2022, a federal government release said Thursday.

Minister of Transport Omar Alghabra announced the interim order, and also extended an order prohibiting pleasure craft in Canadian Arctic waters except for those used by residents of the region.

ExpatExp

Is it now firmly established that none of the vaccines currently being given can provide sterilising immunity? I was under the impression that this was not yet known, but would be glad if new information is now available.

mczlaw

This passed through my Facebook feed tonight. Don't know anything about the source, but if true and established at scale, another blow against the evil crud:

Israel Finds Covid Cure? (Ynet news)

doctoravios

I think we can say with certainty that none of the current vaccines provide sterilising immunity as this essentially means 100% (or at least close to 100%) prevention of infection. But the fact that they don't is not a problem - they are very effective at preventing serious illness and that will help enormously in turning the pandemic into manageable seasonal epidemics.

exp

Another data point about the susceptibility of young kids to getting infected and infecting others.

Maybe the B117 variant will change the calculus on how vulnerable kids under 10 are.

ryman554

Not to dismiss the concern, but what is the relative percentage of symptomatic/serious COVID vs the rest of the areas?

Said another way, did they find this because they went looking for it and tested a lot of folks? Or did a lot of folks get really sick?

Diplomatico

"After 139 people were found positive out of 189 tested, health authorities in the province of Brescia decided to sequence the samples, which identified the British strain of the virus."

and

"Although only one of the 139 people who tested positive in Corzano has been hospitalised, and most others are asymptomatic, health experts warned that the arrival of new virus variants should not be underestimated."

https://www.thelocal.it/20210204/cor...northern-italy

ryman554

Wow, that's a ridiculous positivity rate. Was this a set of targeted tests for folks who had close contacts with a known sick person, and, if so, when these kind of tests are usually done, what is the positivity rate for close contacts/contact tracing?

Follow up, then, is the ratio of hospitalized vs. symptomatic vs. asymptomatic similar to elsewhere? I guess adjusting for age? Or are there many more asymptomatics?

stimpy

Going back to July it has been reported that the new strains are more viral and less virulent. At least from what I've seen.

TTT

Not always:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...-variants.html

VCURamFan

Appears to be the biggest week to week drop in covid cases on record in the US, a week ago 172,000 cases, today 105,000 cases.

1/8: 308,000
1/15: 249,000
1/22: 195,000
1/29: 172,000
2/6: 105,000

Good news should be reported and celebrated at a time when the media looks to scare people at any occasion.

VCURamFan

Also, Friday the US hit over 2M vaccinations for the first time ever with over 2.1M+ doses administered. With shipments increasing, and NFL stadiums etc opening for federal vaccination sites, we should be able to hit 2.5M vaccinations a day fairly soon, and with JNJ coming online likely within weeks, I'd think 3M a day is possible by March.