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Coronavirus / COVID-19 : general fact-based reporting
#7456
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: LAX
Posts: 3,267
And second, his argument is only slightly more optimistic than the most accurate (by far) modelers of the pandemic at the University of Washington. The graph below is daily infections in the United States. You might notice that the "Projection" and "Variant Spread" lines are the same. IE, they've already factored in the idea that the variants are the dominant strain, so that bugaboo is not a factor:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/global
Last edited by lobo411; Feb 20, 2021 at 8:30 am
#7457
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Full time Nomad
Posts: 842
And check out your state/county here. My county is 31% estimated actual infections, daughters is 35%, some in Tennessee are close to 60%. When son-in-law lost sense of taste and smell very early March 3, we knew he was infected in February 2020 ( before the 1st TN case, and before the Biogen conference in Boston) . In little ole' Chattanooga.
https://covid19-projections.com/#us-...ions-estimates
https://covid19-projections.com/#us-...ions-estimates
#7458
Join Date: Oct 2020
Programs: Iberia
Posts: 46
#7459
Suspended
Join Date: Feb 2009
Programs: DL, UA, AA, VS
Posts: 5,226
I think also the immune response is weaker the less severe the disease, based on antibody levels.
And immune response from vaccination is higher than from infection.
And immune response from vaccination is higher than from infection.
#7460
Join Date: Jan 2019
Posts: 218
"But the consistent and rapid decline in daily cases since Jan. 8 can be explained only by natural immunity. Behavior didn’t suddenly improve over the holidays; Americans traveled more over Christmas than they had since March. Vaccines also don’t explain the steep decline in January. Vaccination rates were low and they take weeks to kick in.
My prediction that Covid-19 will be mostly gone by April is based on laboratory data, mathematical data, published literature and conversations with experts. But it’s also based on direct observation of how hard testing has been to get, especially for the poor. If you live in a wealthy community where worried people are vigilant about getting tested, you might think that most infections are captured by testing. But if you have seen the many barriers to testing for low-income Americans, you might think that very few infections have been captured at testing centers. Keep in mind that most infections are asymptomatic, which still triggers natural immunity."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-ha...il-11613669731
My prediction that Covid-19 will be mostly gone by April is based on laboratory data, mathematical data, published literature and conversations with experts. But it’s also based on direct observation of how hard testing has been to get, especially for the poor. If you live in a wealthy community where worried people are vigilant about getting tested, you might think that most infections are captured by testing. But if you have seen the many barriers to testing for low-income Americans, you might think that very few infections have been captured at testing centers. Keep in mind that most infections are asymptomatic, which still triggers natural immunity."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-ha...il-11613669731
As far as I know, Manaus is the evidence that natural herd immunity doesn't exist or will fail soon. The 2nd wave has been more lethal in Manaus,
"The risk of new variants mutating around the prior vaccinated or natural immunity should be a reminder that Covid-19 will persist for decades after the pandemic is over."
If the 2nd wave is more lethal, how come the pandemic will be over? Not to say in a matter of weeks.
#7461
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: LAX
Posts: 3,267
It is, but it's also well-established that reinfection *with the same variant* is almost unheard of. And almost all first-time infections are asymptomatic to medium intensity, so it seems likely that it doesn't take much to fight off the virus the second time around.
#7462
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: LAX
Posts: 3,267
And he also mentioned "Herd immunity has been well-documented in the Brazilian city of Manaus, where researchers in the Lancet reported the prevalence of prior Covid-19 infection to be 76%, resulting in a significant slowing of the infection. Doctors are watching a new strain that threatens to evade prior immunity."
As far as I know, Manaus is the evidence that natural herd immunity doesn't exist or will fail soon. The 2nd wave has been more lethal in Manaus,
As far as I know, Manaus is the evidence that natural herd immunity doesn't exist or will fail soon. The 2nd wave has been more lethal in Manaus,
Second, death rates are only partially a function of the virus' innate characteristics. Local conditions seem to be the primary factor in death rates, and in Manaus you have a recipe for death. You have an isolated city surrounded by nothing for hundreds of miles, with the only ICU beds for hundreds of miles. And not nearly enough of them. You have a middle-income country with wide swathes of deep poverty that can't afford to surge help to where it's needed. And most importantly of all, you have a criminally stupid person in charge of everything: Bolsonaro.
Anyway, it's now undeniable that the infection rate around the world has collapsed at a time when it *should* be surging. It's mid-winter in the Northern Hemisphere. Cases were off the charts. The new variants have been found on every continent where humans live. Cases should growing geometrically. Now, we *know* that vaccines didn't do it since practically no one (as a % of the global population) has been vaccinated, then what killed the *global* surge? There are two possibilities:
1. People around the world, on every inhabited continent, suddenly decided to isolate like never before, and wear masks, and wash their hands, and that prevented tens of millions of infections (ya right)
2. People are behaving the same as they have for the last few months, but the virus is simply having a harder time finding good hosts.
Last edited by lobo411; Feb 20, 2021 at 3:17 pm
#7463
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 286
Been a few days, so I will provide a daily case update. Cases continue to plummet, 69,000 cases today (the lowest on a Sat since October) and down 20% from last Saturday.
1/9 258,000
1/16 206,000
1/23 174,000
1/30 146,000
2/6 109,000
2/13 87,000
2/20 69,000
1/9 258,000
1/16 206,000
1/23 174,000
1/30 146,000
2/6 109,000
2/13 87,000
2/20 69,000
#7464
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Virginia City Highlands
Programs: Nothing anymore after 20 years
Posts: 6,900
If this trend continues I would like to get an answer from doomsday and new wave predictors - ‘why?’
Considering that neither people’s behavior has changed nor vaccines have been widely distributed.
And honestly, it is time to start getting answers on reasonable questions. Like why case numbers are declining in the middle of winter when they supposed (according to science) to go up. Or why number were increasing during hot weather or hot climate when they were supposed to go down.
And there are many other questions. It has been a year. Time to start getting answers on them.
Considering that neither people’s behavior has changed nor vaccines have been widely distributed.
And honestly, it is time to start getting answers on reasonable questions. Like why case numbers are declining in the middle of winter when they supposed (according to science) to go up. Or why number were increasing during hot weather or hot climate when they were supposed to go down.
And there are many other questions. It has been a year. Time to start getting answers on them.
#7465
Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,353
If this trend continues I would like to get an answer from doomsday and new wave predictors - ‘why?’
Considering that neither people’s behavior has changed nor vaccines have been widely distributed.
And honestly, it is time to start getting answers on reasonable questions. Like why case numbers are declining in the middle of winter when they supposed (according to science) to go up. Or why number were increasing during hot weather or hot climate when they were supposed to go down.
And there are many other questions. It has been a year. Time to start getting answers on them.
Considering that neither people’s behavior has changed nor vaccines have been widely distributed.
And honestly, it is time to start getting answers on reasonable questions. Like why case numbers are declining in the middle of winter when they supposed (according to science) to go up. Or why number were increasing during hot weather or hot climate when they were supposed to go down.
And there are many other questions. It has been a year. Time to start getting answers on them.
It is encouraging that the infection and death numbers have continued to drop steadily, approaching but not yet at the levels in September (deaths are only down to December levels but lag getting infected so that is expected). It will be interesting to see where things level off this time. Hopefully vaccination rates will help push the rates down, and prevent or mitigate the next surge. The future modeling certainly isn’t doomsday -- it shows some scenarios where it continues to drop because of that, and others where there’s a some additional increases as some of the variants spread. Some of that depends how complacent people get before we get there and are sure we’re staying there. I definitely agree with opening more and more safely as rates go down, being mindful of wanting to keep the rates down.
#7466
If this trend continues I would like to get an answer from doomsday and new wave predictors - ‘why?’
Considering that neither people’s behavior has changed nor vaccines have been widely distributed.
And honestly, it is time to start getting answers on reasonable questions. Like why case numbers are declining in the middle of winter when they supposed (according to science) to go up. Or why number were increasing during hot weather or hot climate when they were supposed to go down.
And there are many other questions. It has been a year. Time to start getting answers on them.
Considering that neither people’s behavior has changed nor vaccines have been widely distributed.
And honestly, it is time to start getting answers on reasonable questions. Like why case numbers are declining in the middle of winter when they supposed (according to science) to go up. Or why number were increasing during hot weather or hot climate when they were supposed to go down.
And there are many other questions. It has been a year. Time to start getting answers on them.
#7467
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: Between Seas
Posts: 4,754
If this trend continues I would like to get an answer from doomsday and new wave predictors - ‘why?’
Considering that neither people’s behavior has changed nor vaccines have been widely distributed.
And honestly, it is time to start getting answers on reasonable questions. Like why case numbers are declining in the middle of winter when they <are> supposed (according to science) to go up. Or why <numbers> were increasing during hot weather or hot climate when they were supposed to go down.
And there are many other questions. It has been a year. Time to start getting answers on them.
Considering that neither people’s behavior has changed nor vaccines have been widely distributed.
And honestly, it is time to start getting answers on reasonable questions. Like why case numbers are declining in the middle of winter when they <are> supposed (according to science) to go up. Or why <numbers> were increasing during hot weather or hot climate when they were supposed to go down.
And there are many other questions. It has been a year. Time to start getting answers on them.
COVID and Culture: Countries with Strict Social Norms Fare Better
- Did the harsh penalties work? It appears they had an effect in most places, but not in all. Perhaps some countries didn't have the ability or willpower to enforce them. Whatever the reason, they certainly didn't work everywhere. Note the following graph (based on data from the European CDC) which includes the major countries of Western Europe. The UK and Spain are doing just as poorly as the U.S.
If strong-arming your countrymen into following lockdowns doesn't work, what does? New research in The Lancet Planetary Health suggests culture might. Led by Dr. Michele Gelfand, the team examined the relationship between what they call "cultural tightness" -- by which they mean countries that have strict social norms -- and the severity of COVID. Cultural tightness/looseness is obviously a subjective quality, but the authors utilized data from a system that tried to quantify it using statements like, "There are very clear expectations for how people should act in most situations." Using this method and plotting COVID cases and deaths as a function of cultural tightness, the authors found that countries with "loose" social norms had five times as many COVID cases and more than 8.5 times as many COVID deaths as countries with stricter social standards.
If the authors are correct -- and their results certainly confirm what many of us suspected -- it suggests that the best way to fight a pandemic is to have a culturally tight society, which likely leads to more cooperation. But, of course, there are major downsides to a culture with strict social norms. These cultures tend not to be particularly friendly to women or various minorities. So while we lament the lack of cooperation and cultural tightness in Western civilization that allows a virus to spread, we can simultaneously celebrate the cultural looseness and subsequent entrepreneurial spirit that allows a cure to be discovered. –
- Did the harsh penalties work? It appears they had an effect in most places, but not in all. Perhaps some countries didn't have the ability or willpower to enforce them. Whatever the reason, they certainly didn't work everywhere. Note the following graph (based on data from the European CDC) which includes the major countries of Western Europe. The UK and Spain are doing just as poorly as the U.S.
If strong-arming your countrymen into following lockdowns doesn't work, what does? New research in The Lancet Planetary Health suggests culture might. Led by Dr. Michele Gelfand, the team examined the relationship between what they call "cultural tightness" -- by which they mean countries that have strict social norms -- and the severity of COVID. Cultural tightness/looseness is obviously a subjective quality, but the authors utilized data from a system that tried to quantify it using statements like, "There are very clear expectations for how people should act in most situations." Using this method and plotting COVID cases and deaths as a function of cultural tightness, the authors found that countries with "loose" social norms had five times as many COVID cases and more than 8.5 times as many COVID deaths as countries with stricter social standards.
If the authors are correct -- and their results certainly confirm what many of us suspected -- it suggests that the best way to fight a pandemic is to have a culturally tight society, which likely leads to more cooperation. But, of course, there are major downsides to a culture with strict social norms. These cultures tend not to be particularly friendly to women or various minorities. So while we lament the lack of cooperation and cultural tightness in Western civilization that allows a virus to spread, we can simultaneously celebrate the cultural looseness and subsequent entrepreneurial spirit that allows a cure to be discovered. –
#7468
Suspended
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Watchlisted by the prejudiced, en route to purgatory
Programs: Just Say No to Fleecing and Blacklisting
Posts: 102,095
The above post is from ACSH, a highly politicized entity set up for the purpose of just that: politicizing scientific findings to serve highly partisan political interests. And so I'm not surprised by what they put out and suggest skepticism toward their output.
Sweden has strict social norms -- stricter than even Norway and Denmark -- and yet the fact of the matter is that Sweden's pandemic response has led to much worse per capita Covid-19 death counts than has happened in Sweden's neighbors -- including its neighbor Denmark with substantially higher population density and much more free-wheeling and fragmented cultural groups than has been the common case in Sweden.
Historically, Sweden does worse with death counts than its neighbors during pandemics. Doing worse during a pandemic with responses to a pandemic may well be a function of a country's lack of cultural adaptability even in the face of a pandemic.
Sweden has strict social norms -- stricter than even Norway and Denmark -- and yet the fact of the matter is that Sweden's pandemic response has led to much worse per capita Covid-19 death counts than has happened in Sweden's neighbors -- including its neighbor Denmark with substantially higher population density and much more free-wheeling and fragmented cultural groups than has been the common case in Sweden.
Historically, Sweden does worse with death counts than its neighbors during pandemics. Doing worse during a pandemic with responses to a pandemic may well be a function of a country's lack of cultural adaptability even in the face of a pandemic.
Last edited by GUWonder; Feb 21, 2021 at 5:30 am
#7469
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: Between Seas
Posts: 4,754
The above post is from ACSH, a highly politicized entity set up for the purpose of just that: politicizing scientific findings to serve highly partisan political interests. And so I'm not surprised by what they put out and suggest skepticism toward their output.
Sweden has strict social norms -- stricter than even Norway and Denmark -- and yet the fact of the matter is that Sweden's pandemic response has led to much worse per capita Covid-19 death counts than has happened in Sweden's neighbors -- including its neighbor Denmark with substantially higher population density and much more free-wheeling and fragmented cultural groups than has been the common case in Sweden. -.
Sweden has strict social norms -- stricter than even Norway and Denmark -- and yet the fact of the matter is that Sweden's pandemic response has led to much worse per capita Covid-19 death counts than has happened in Sweden's neighbors -- including its neighbor Denmark with substantially higher population density and much more free-wheeling and fragmented cultural groups than has been the common case in Sweden. -.
This highlights the oddly broad seasonality across varied geographies, climes, populations, and socioeconomic features that reportedly has pandemic modelers scrambling.
Here is more of what you might deem to be politicized scientific findings, from the same site that you suspect to be serving highly partisan political interests:
No, COVID mRNA Vaccine Won't Cause Alzheimer's or Prion Disease
- The COVID pandemic has made this painfully clear. Among the most pernicious myths is one that claims the mRNA vaccines made by Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna are a form of genetic engineering, a lie that is being perpetuated by none other than fraud doctor Andrew Wakefield.
Now, a new myth has reared its ugly head. A paper written by a well-known anti-vaxxer named J. Bart Classen and published in a scientific journal -- if we can even call it that (because it's not indexed in PubMed) -- claims that the mRNA vaccines that target coronavirus could cause prion diseases like Alzheimer's. It's total garbage. –
- There's no actual evidence. Yet, from that, he concludes that the vaccine may be worse than the disease. For good measure, he mentions that the coronavirus and the mRNA vaccines both might be bioweapons released by the U.S. government. Hopefully, he notified Fox Mulder. –
- The COVID pandemic has made this painfully clear. Among the most pernicious myths is one that claims the mRNA vaccines made by Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna are a form of genetic engineering, a lie that is being perpetuated by none other than fraud doctor Andrew Wakefield.
Now, a new myth has reared its ugly head. A paper written by a well-known anti-vaxxer named J. Bart Classen and published in a scientific journal -- if we can even call it that (because it's not indexed in PubMed) -- claims that the mRNA vaccines that target coronavirus could cause prion diseases like Alzheimer's. It's total garbage. –
- There's no actual evidence. Yet, from that, he concludes that the vaccine may be worse than the disease. For good measure, he mentions that the coronavirus and the mRNA vaccines both might be bioweapons released by the U.S. government. Hopefully, he notified Fox Mulder. –
Do post a refutation of these articles that should suggest more skepticism towards such output.
Last edited by FlitBen; Feb 22, 2021 at 12:42 am Reason: grammar, tone
#7470
Suspended
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Watchlisted by the prejudiced, en route to purgatory
Programs: Just Say No to Fleecing and Blacklisting
Posts: 102,095
Covid-19 death rates in Sweden have skyrocketed so much in recent weeks that Sweden has added nearly 50% of its total 2020 Covid-19 within just the past 8 weeks alone.
Not sure how anyone takes the above fact and makes it into "death rates are indeed dropping in Sweden and Denmark".
Whether or not reported infection rates are dropping in an area is a function of who is (and who is not) getting tested, how much testing is going on, and with how much this virus is spreading in an area. A solution to testing-related issues possibly leading to a misleading understanding of what is in fact happening with the spread of this virus in an area is to use the untreated sewage to try to measure the amount of virus going about in an area. Sewage surveillance for Covid-19.
Researchers in Sweden, Australia and several other countries are doing this because sewage surveillance may be providing a more accurate picture than personal, administered testing programs. In parts of the US, sewage surveillance for Covid-19 is also being done. Why? Because: "While testing is a crucial tool to help track the spread of the virus, it does not capture the full extent to which Covid-19 is present within a community." Sewage surveillance can catch developments that regular testing of people in-person does not.
Not sure how anyone takes the above fact and makes it into "death rates are indeed dropping in Sweden and Denmark".
Whether or not reported infection rates are dropping in an area is a function of who is (and who is not) getting tested, how much testing is going on, and with how much this virus is spreading in an area. A solution to testing-related issues possibly leading to a misleading understanding of what is in fact happening with the spread of this virus in an area is to use the untreated sewage to try to measure the amount of virus going about in an area. Sewage surveillance for Covid-19.
Researchers in Sweden, Australia and several other countries are doing this because sewage surveillance may be providing a more accurate picture than personal, administered testing programs. In parts of the US, sewage surveillance for Covid-19 is also being done. Why? Because: "While testing is a crucial tool to help track the spread of the virus, it does not capture the full extent to which Covid-19 is present within a community." Sewage surveillance can catch developments that regular testing of people in-person does not.
Last edited by GUWonder; Feb 21, 2021 at 9:16 am