VCURamFan

If I had to guess the reason for the large and fast drop in cases it's because of the huge portion of the country who has antibodies, the late fall/early winter spike brought that # up tremendously. The virus does not have as many bodies to circulate in. I'd think a conservative estimate of the # of Americans with antibodies would be 75-100M, then add over 50M who have already had at least one vax shot although there is some overlap.

I do not believe that behaviors have changed much. I live in two states that have completely different levels of regulation, but anecdotally if anything I see more people out and about in both VA and FL than I did in Dec and early January. Travel has certainly not declined, the TSA has seen multiple days recently with over a million flyers.

As much as we want to think that restrictions and controls significantly change the trajectory of the virus, it is largely playing out the natural course of a pandemic.