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Old Jan 27, 2020, 9:09 am
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Coronavirus / COVID-19 : general fact-based reporting

 
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Old Feb 23, 2020, 7:55 pm
  #2551  
 
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Originally Posted by Stgermainparis
Are you guys seriously canceling trips as far out as July? No judgement, just wondering if my own thinking is off. We've got a 2-week family trip to Tokyo, Kyoto, Beijing for the first half of July, and I wasn't going to pull the plug until late May (when maybe the virus would slow down due to warmer weather). And even then, I figured we'd just cut Beijing from the itinerary. My thinking has been if things are so problematic in Japan that travel there is unwise then travel anywhere in Asia and/or Europe at this point (Italy!) or even Hawaii will likely be unwise (in which case we're all stuck home for the foreseeable future). I mean, I'll cancel the trip if I have to, but I don't want to do it prematurely. And if I do Europe or Hawaii instead, for example, that may blow up, too. And then if we hunker down at our Florida condo, we are then in a building with 100s of others, including tourists coming and going, unlike being home in our single unit house with tourists unlikely and only neighbors coming and going. Just seems like so much is so unpredictable right now.

My more immediate concern has been the family spring break in LAS in two weeks. All those buffets...egads.
Absolutely - in fact there's every possibility that Malaysia and Japan will be safer than the US by the time July comes!
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Old Feb 23, 2020, 8:00 pm
  #2552  
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I sure hope that latest death toll number from China is a typo...





https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Update: okay, corrected. Still pretty bad, I think.
  • 409 new cases and 150 new deaths occurred in China (of which 366 new cases and 106 new deaths in Hubei province) on February 21, as reported by the National Health Commission (NHC) of China. [source]
Last edited by notquiteaff; Feb 23, 2020 at 8:26 pm
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Old Feb 23, 2020, 8:04 pm
  #2553  
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Originally Posted by doctoravios
Absolutely - in fact there's every possibility that Malaysia and Japan will be safer than the US by the time July comes!
And if it's not then there may be waivers in place that will make cancelling less costly.
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Old Feb 23, 2020, 8:06 pm
  #2554  
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Originally Posted by Stgermainparis
Are you guys seriously canceling trips as far out as July?
I don’t have any trips booked beyond April, so nothin to cancel, but I am holding off booking something for now.

I do have a trip to Mexico booked for next week that I assume will go as planned. Then another trip to Europe end of March. I am not cancelling it at this time (really no advantage to doing that... it would cost me a redeposit fee for the miles whether I do it now or a week prior to the trip)

Originally Posted by Stgermainparis

My more immediate concern has been the family spring break in LAS in two weeks. All those buffets...egads.


At least you are close to those ranches in the middle of Nevada
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Last edited by notquiteaff; Feb 23, 2020 at 8:28 pm
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Old Feb 23, 2020, 8:43 pm
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Originally Posted by notquiteaff

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Update: okay, corrected. Still pretty bad, I think.
  • 409 new cases and 150 new deaths occurred in China (of which 366 new cases and 106 new deaths in Hubei province) on February 21, as reported by the National Health Commission (NHC) of China. [[url=http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/yqtb/202002/945bd98a9d884aeeb54d76afa02ca813.shtml]source]
Actually 149/150 new deaths are from Hubei (one other in Hainan).
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Old Feb 23, 2020, 8:53 pm
  #2556  
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Originally Posted by notquiteaff
I sure hope that latest death toll number from China is a typo...





https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Update: okay, corrected. Still pretty bad, I think.
  • 409 new cases and 150 new deaths occurred in China (of which 366 new cases and 106 new deaths in Hubei province) on February 21, as reported by the National Health Commission (NHC) of China. [source]
The change in total deaths from about yesterday seems approximately consistent with the number of new deaths shown here.
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Old Feb 23, 2020, 9:17 pm
  #2557  
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Wuhan quarantine to end today
Non-residents can exit Wuhan starting today

And residents can re-enter the city also

https://s.nextmedia.com/realtime/a.p...096&a=60634231

https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/cnnews/2...00952_001.html
Last edited by percysmith; Feb 23, 2020 at 9:24 pm
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Old Feb 23, 2020, 9:18 pm
  #2558  
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Originally Posted by MSPeconomist
The change in total deaths from about yesterday seems approximately consistent with the number of new deaths shown here.
It appears to be a very unfortunate typo. It's now been updated to only 150 new deaths.

Meanwhile, despite all the fearmongering I'm seeing on the web -- and perhaps a bit in the financial markets -- China is doing a very good job now in controlling the virus. Here's the latest from The Beijinger blog:

Second Day of Zero New Infections in Beijing: Two days in a row with no infections reported has caused many a Beijinger to sigh with relief and start seeing the end of this tunnel, However, the city government has reiterated that this is not the time to relax. Given returnees are continuing to pour back into the city and returning to work, it pays for everyone to continue to demonstrate the vigilance they have shown so far. In yesterday's press conference on the coronavirus situation, officials reiterated a series of rules that need to be adhered to, such as: individuals should wear masks in public areas and avoid gathering in groups; office buildings should set an upper limit of people allowed in the building at one time; and restaurants and shops should remove their thermal hanging door guards and set up 1-meter lines to prevent crowding.

https://www.thebeijinger.com/blog/20...us_latest_news
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Old Feb 23, 2020, 9:21 pm
  #2559  
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Originally Posted by MSPeconomist
The change in total deaths from about yesterday seems approximately consistent with the number of new deaths shown here.
The 150 is in the same range as in previous days, but somewhat higher. (the 989 number shown for a little while was... shocking)

2/23: 150
2/22: 97
2/21: 109
2/20: 118
2/19: 114
2/18: 136
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Old Feb 23, 2020, 9:37 pm
  #2560  
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Originally Posted by iahphx
Truly mind-boggling what's going on with the Diamond Princess. The virus seems pretty hard to contract outside of Wuhan yet "everyone" is getting sick on this ship. I sure hope the epidemiologists are learning something from this tragedy.
That's what happens when people ignore the quarantine.
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Old Feb 23, 2020, 9:38 pm
  #2561  
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Originally Posted by notquiteaff
The 150 is in the same range as in previous days, but somewhat higher. (the 989 number shown for a little while was... shocking)

2/23: 150
2/22: 97
2/21: 109
2/20: 118
2/19: 114
2/18: 136
There seems to be more fear in the world tonight than a couple of days ago, but I actually think "the situation on the ground" is better. Yes, there are a couple of scares on S. Korea and Italy, but the Chinese are definitely showing containment -- even without a great health care system or much knowledge about the virus -- is quite possible. Betting on the end of the world is a terrible bet. I highly recommend everyone stay optimistic, or at least realistic. I'll let you know when it's time to panic. Please don't cancel your spring vacation plans yet, and especially your summer trips.
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Old Feb 23, 2020, 9:46 pm
  #2562  
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Originally Posted by iahphx
There seems to be more fear in the world tonight than a couple of days ago, but I actually think "the situation on the ground" is better. Yes, there are a couple of scares on S. Korea and Italy, but the Chinese are definitely showing containment -- even without a great health care system or much knowledge about the virus -- is quite possible. Betting on the end of the world is a terrible bet. I highly recommend everyone stay optimistic, or at least realistic. I'll let you know when it's time to panic. Please don't cancel your spring vacation plans yet, and especially your summer trips.
Interesting. I'm not making any commitments to travel to Asia at this point and I'm procrastinating on optional travel to Europe next month, but unless a waiver is about to expire, I fail to see the advantage of cancelling anything until a few days before departure, when hotel cancellation deadlines and the DL 72 hour cancel/redeposit rule for award tickets start to potentially bite.
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Old Feb 23, 2020, 9:48 pm
  #2563  
 
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Originally Posted by iahphx
Please don't cancel your spring vacation plans yet, and especially your summer trips.
...and if you wanted to visit Singapore, now is the time.
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Old Feb 23, 2020, 10:03 pm
  #2564  
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Originally Posted by MSPeconomist
Interesting. I'm not making any commitments to travel to Asia at this point and I'm procrastinating on optional travel to Europe next month, but unless a waiver is about to expire, I fail to see the advantage of cancelling anything until a few days before departure, when hotel cancellation deadlines and the DL 72 hour cancel/redeposit rule for award tickets start to potentially bite.
Yeah, I'm booked to Shanghai in about 60 days. Do I think I'm going? Not really, but I'm not sure. Things are currently getting better there quite quickly.

I will be quite surprised if I don't make it to Japan in July. That said, I have a couple of family members who are currently unticketed to Japan and I've suspended looking for seats for them. Two reasons:1) no reason to have tickets you don'y need to have when things are less certain; and 2) I don't think there's going to be much demand for those tickets until this virus story calms down. Prices and award availability may definitely become more favorable!
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Old Feb 23, 2020, 10:14 pm
  #2565  
 
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Originally Posted by iahphx
Yeah, I'm booked to Shanghai in about 60 days. Do I think I'm going? Not really, but I'm not sure. Things are currently getting better there quite quickly.

I will be quite surprised if I don't make it to Japan in July. That said, I have a couple of family members who are currently unticketed to Japan and I've suspended looking for seats for them. Two reasons:1) no reason to have tickets you don'y need to have when things are less certain; and 2) I don't think there's going to be much demand for those tickets until this virus story calms down. Prices and award availability may definitely become more favorable!
I’ve thought the same thing. Our current tix aren’t ideal bc needed 5x J. But if seats open up on better flights, I’m all over changing. I also checked the rates at the GH in Beijing where we’ve got two rooms on points. Would now be cheaper to use UR for a “paid” rez than Hyatt point award. I need to check the HR in Tokyo next for same purpose.
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