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Old Jan 27, 2020, 9:09 am
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Coronavirus / COVID-19 : general fact-based reporting

 
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 7:06 pm
  #2626  
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Originally Posted by jiejie
Costa Serena is currently in Nagasaki. From tracking, it looks like it's been doing short round-trips out of there for much of February, which would logically be geared to the Japanese market. Or it's been berthed there and just periodically heading out to sea crew-only, to make fresh water and those sorts of activities.
I think it is the latter. Would be hard to sell sufficient last minute tickets for short trips and who in their right mind is going to get on a cruise ship Japan at the moment anyway?

I noticed Westerdam is still docked in Sihanoukville. A couple of days ago she was out on sea, but not far, so presumably for similar activities.
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 7:21 pm
  #2627  
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Originally Posted by nk15
A summary presentation of COVID-19 by a USF ID faculty member, posted today:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nuRZwQsLf0

At 7:45 she talks about how the US in the last 3 years had closed the Office of Pandemic Response, reduced/cut back CDC outreach, and cut other relevant programs and resources.

EDIT: At 20:12 she says that the new virus survives 7-9 days on surfaces, but she doesn't cite a source and it is not clear if it means it is still infectious then, it may be sloppy reporting.
Thanks for posting. That was a good watch.

I think I read the 7-9 days elsewhere. Maybe a CCDC study mid last week?
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 7:56 pm
  #2628  
 
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Trump sending coronavirus budget request to Congress

The supplemental is for $2.5 billion.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...request-117275
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 8:06 pm
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CDC has upgraded South Korea to travel warning level 3.
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 8:09 pm
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Here we go. Korea added to L3 warning by CDC

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices...us-south-korea

Warning - Level 3, Avoid Nonessential Travel—Widespread Community Transmission

Key Points

  • CDC recommends that travelers avoid all nonessential travel to South Korea.
  • There is a widespread, ongoing outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel (new) coronavirus that can be spread from person to person.
  • Older adults and people with chronic medical conditions may be at increased risk for severe disease.
On state department's website it is still L2.

Wander when airlines start canceling flights.
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 8:15 pm
  #2631  
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Originally Posted by invisible
Here we go. Korea added to L3 warning by CDC

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices...us-south-korea

Warning - Level 3, Avoid Nonessential Travel—Widespread Community Transmission

Key Points

  • CDC recommends that travelers avoid all nonessential travel to South Korea.
  • There is a widespread, ongoing outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel (new) coronavirus that can be spread from person to person.
  • Older adults and people with chronic medical conditions may be at increased risk for severe disease.
On state department's website it is still L2.

Wander when airlines start canceling flights.
Delta added Seoul to their travel waiver earlier today.
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 8:21 pm
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Originally Posted by TTT
Delta added Seoul to their travel waiver earlier today.
Are they still flying? Is there a guideline to suspend routes based on CDC or State Department warning levels or it is entirely up the airline?
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 8:25 pm
  #2633  
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Originally Posted by invisible
Are they still flying? Is there a guideline to suspend routes based on CDC or State Department warning levels or it is entirely up the airline?
The schedule still indicates flights operating later this week. I imagine demand will tank pretty quickly though.
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 8:27 pm
  #2634  
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Originally Posted by notquiteaff
I think it is the latter. Would be hard to sell sufficient last minute tickets for short trips and who in their right mind is going to get on a cruise ship Japan at the moment anyway?

I noticed Westerdam is still docked in Sihanoukville. A couple of days ago she was out on sea, but not far, so presumably for similar activities.
What activities requires a cruise ship to randomly sail around?
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 8:36 pm
  #2635  
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Originally Posted by TTT
Delta added Seoul to their travel waiver earlier today.
OUCH. DL terminated all intraAsian connections through Tokyo NRT in favor of connections using partner KE through ICN. DL's other close SkyTeam partner in Asia was MU in mainland China, which hasn't worked very well recently either.
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 8:41 pm
  #2636  
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Originally Posted by trueblu
Although they sure don't feel like that now, the passengers and crew on the DP who got away with mild COVID-19 will have been the lucky ones...as strange as it may seem to say it. Getting infected now outside of Hubei and in a place with decent healthcare means people (governments) will invest considerable resources to see you through the infection...that may only remain the case for another few weeks unless transmission is halted by weather.

Gosh I'm being morbid today!
Unfortunately, I think you're being accurate. While we could hope the world would stomp on this I think we have a lot more cases like Japan rather than President Madagascar.

Originally Posted by trueblu
I've also commented repeatedly that low mortality is actually worse in terms of global outlook for a highly contagious infection. You seem to think the outsize global/Chinese response means that this virus is more deadly than reported...I think quite the opposite. I've explained clearly in my dozens of posts on this thread my reasoning. You are free to disagree. I certainly do disagree with your invective. You'll find my reasons in my numerous posts on this topic, I'm not sure repeating them ad nauseam to someone who doesn't want to listen is that productive.
While I agree with your reasoning the really deadly stuff would be something that kills slowly. HIV has killed 32 million despite a direct contact body fluid vector, imagine how deadly it would be if it had a casual contact vector?
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 8:47 pm
  #2637  
 
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Originally Posted by Loren Pechtel
While I agree with your reasoning the really deadly stuff would be something that kills slowly.
If I understand him correctly, point is different - the problem is not with mortality rate, but rather than overwhelming healthcare system with people who need to be in ICU/CCU. Even if mortality rate is lower than 1%, but percentage of patients needed ICU/CCU is like 5-10% of infected, already with 5% of world's population infected it will bring current healthcare infrastructure to halt. Because if 10m people is getting infected in States for example, that would require 500k-1m hospital beds and that's Wuhan/Spanish Flu type situation.
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 9:13 pm
  #2638  
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Gilead stock jumped when a WHO official said Remdesivir showed some promise.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/24/inves...vir/index.html

Wiki says that Gilead supplied a single treatment to a US patient with Covid-19 who developed pneumonia. Supposedly his condition improved dramatically and was eventually discharged.

Gilead touts that remdesivir has shown efficacy against SARS and MERS in animals.

It must be FDA approved and very expensive. Gilead supplied the drug to the WA patient on a compassionate basis.

They’re also supplying to the Chinese for clinical trials in Wuhan which started earlier this month.
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 9:37 pm
  #2639  
 
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Originally Posted by MSPeconomist
Meanwhile, I stopped procrastinating and bought some masks today. A suburban Target (not the biggest one in the area, but convenient for me today) didn't have any in stock, but I found a small supply at Home Depot:

3M 2-pack N95 masks nonvalve respirator for $5.49

HDX (made in China) 15-pack N95 valve respirator for $20.97

I was a bit surprised that this was so easy as I've been beating myself up a bit for not having done this errand earlier. At the moment, I'm not sure what travel is on the horizon for me (in principle, a research conference in Seoul????? another one in Milano???????), but I thought I should acquire some masks just in case, possibly to be gifted to friends/colleagues from China/Japan/Korea.
Before purchasing an N95 mask, one should look to see whether the mask is FDA-approved. I've investigated a bunch of them, and most of the ones being sold for less are not FDA-approved and are excellent for tasks like carpentry. 3M has technical sheets on their various N95s.
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 9:41 pm
  #2640  
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Originally Posted by invisible

Trump sending coronavirus budget request to Congress

The supplemental is for $2.5 billion.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...request-117275
If you read that article you see how woefully inadequate is the request, compared to what experts suggest. I don't even want to think how an epidemic will be managed in the US under the current conditions, but I can imagine widespread panic and confusion, incompetence, denial, and coverups....

I am really hoping for a weather miracle...
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