invisible

Here is what I would add - due to the inevitable difficulties with supply chains, certain stuff/products/services might suddenly end up in short supply. Let's consider the same toilet paper for example. I do not know for an average Walmart who supplies TP, but if that supplier is end up to be hit with quarantine, then people 10k miles away have to switch to Yellow Pages, well, at least temporarily.

What would be the greatest logistical challenge in case of global pandemic with rolling quarantines from country to country and territory to territory is to greatly diversify supply of suppliers (products and services) for business continuity.

notquiteaff

I think real scientists are working on stuff like that without needing our prodding

Loren Pechtel

China's strategy will end up infecting a lot of people who didn't have it in the first place.

nk15

US preparation does not seem very strong or re-assuring at all...

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcar...onavirus-funds

MSPeconomist

Meanwhile, I stopped procrastinating and bought some masks today. A suburban Target (not the biggest one in the area, but convenient for me today) didn't have any in stock, but I found a small supply at Home Depot:

3M 2-pack N95 masks nonvalve respirator for $5.49

HDX (made in China) 15-pack N95 valve respirator for $20.97

I was a bit surprised that this was so easy as I've been beating myself up a bit for not having done this errand earlier. At the moment, I'm not sure what travel is on the horizon for me (in principle, a research conference in Seoul????? another one in Milano???????), but I thought I should acquire some masks just in case, possibly to be gifted to friends/colleagues from China/Japan/Korea.

MSPeconomist

The use of just in time inventory strategies has made supply chains much more vulnerable to distractions. Everyone is trying to minimization inventory costs until suddenly having less than a day's inventory becomes very costly.

notquiteaff

Meanwhile, 18 new cases in the US. The Princess keeps on giving.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html

426 total tests performed in the US.

notquiteaff

That’s a good deal. I paid around $15 for 10 3Ms with valve, on Amazon when the West was on fire. Currently could reorder them for $40. One problem with the M95 is that they take up a lot of space in my carry on bag. On my last trip I put one in a Tupperware container to prevent it from getting crushed.

IncyWincy

Just received following -

US registered cruise ship Costa Serena carrying 4800 people, was to dock at Tianjin on 25 Jan 20. Chinese authorities announced the day before that everyone must be checked. Checking the health of all passengers and crew were accomplished within 18 hours (docking at 5 am to 11 pm same day). 17 passengers (suspected cases and close contacts) were separated and quarantined at hotels. Onward ports cancelled. Chinese authorities did not allow 3700 passengers back on ship. Disaster averted! Nothing like the huge disaster like Diamond Princess in Japan!

Strangely, this news never reported in English. If you type in "Costa Serena, Tianjin, coronavirus" Wikipedia excerpt seems to report, but when you click on the link the details are gone!

https://www.vesseltracker.com/en/Shi...a-9343132.html does confirm that the ship reached Tianjin and did not continue, citing urgent guidelines from China.

But the news did get reported in Chinese and even on a Taiwan website! see https://news.sina.com.tw/article/20200222/34308138.html - very seldom that a Taiwan site sings praises of Chinese Government, even compared the treatment to disastrous handling by Japanese Government of Diamond Princess!

MSPeconomist

What happened to the 3700 passengers who were not permitted back on the ship? Were they expected to cancel the remainder of their plans and somehow make their own way home from Tianjin? What happened to the crew? And where is that ship now?

Loren Pechtel

Medical care can sometimes keep you alive until your body wins the fight. This disease messes with your lungs. For some patients oxygen helps. For those in a more serious condition a ventilator might be needed. (And note that this means that if it goes pandemic the death rate goes up as there won't be anywhere near enough ventilators.)

nk15

The WHO press conference and Q&A about COVID-19 from 9 hours ago:

notquiteaff

Seems Italian flagged/registered. I think Costa is ultimately a subsidiary of Carnival.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Costa_...#Ports_of_call



Perhaps it didn't get any attention in western media because it only had Chinese passengers aboard and the event happened before there was a lot of attention paid to Novel Coronavirus outside of China?

This story covers the Serena event in English:

https://safetyatsea.net/news/2020/cr...break-worsens/

It sounds like the Serena was on the way back to Tianjin where a new cruise was supposed to start on 1/25 (but was canceled). So if that's accurate, the passengers were just disembarked at the port where they expected to leave the ship anyway.

jiejie

Yes, I think the Costa Serena was doing a China-Japan-China cruise and was returning to Tianjin, most if not all would have been Chinese passengers who would have been disembarking in Tianjin anyway. Likely why it didn't get more news coverage in the foreign press.

Costa Serena is currently in Nagasaki. From tracking, it looks like it's been doing short round-trips out of there for much of February, which would logically be geared to the Japanese market. Or it's been berthed there and just periodically heading out to sea crew-only, to make fresh water and those sorts of activities.

nk15

A summary presentation of COVID-19 by a USF ID faculty member, posted today:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nuRZwQsLf0

At 7:45 she talks about how the US in the last 3 years had closed the Office of Pandemic Response, reduced/cut back CDC outreach, and cut other relevant programs and resources.

EDIT: At 20:12 she says that the new virus survives 7-9 days on surfaces, but she doesn't cite a source and it is not clear if it means it is still infectious then, it may be sloppy reporting.