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Old Jan 27, 2020, 9:09 am
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Coronavirus / COVID-19 : general fact-based reporting

 
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 7:53 am
  #2581  
 
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[Redacted quote from deleted post]

Likelihood of Chinese importation of COVID-19, with Hubei still under lockdown, is now negligible. Literally 80% of the countries of the world probably represent a higher risk today.

In other news, markets are finally realising they haven't priced the pandemic properly...but today's opening is just the beginning I would reckon...

The Italy situation appears to be containable, assuming reporting is accurate. Active surveillance from sl. more competent neighbours e.g. Germany, France and Switzerland may help understand true extent. Korea much less so, and Iran is just a huge black hole. Not much news coming from Japan...

tb
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Last edited by NewbieRunner; Feb 24, 2020 at 5:50 pm
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 8:13 am
  #2582  
 
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Originally Posted by trueblu
Korea much less so, and Iran is just a huge black hole. Not much news coming from Japan...
I have higher hope for Koreans compared to Japanese.
Iran... well let's just take a infected/dead ratio for reported cases and compare to the China/rest of the world. Iran now has 20% mortality from reported cases. So either this virus is 10x deadlier in Iran compared to Wuhan, or Iran has 100x more, undetected cases. I think it is latter and number of these infected people already traveled in different countries.
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 8:16 am
  #2583  
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Originally Posted by invisible
...and if you wanted to visit Singapore, now is the time.
I wouldn’t advise anyone to visit Singapore now. Why take the chance on the plane or in town?
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 8:18 am
  #2584  
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Originally Posted by yosithezet
I wouldn’t advise anyone to visit Singapore now. Why take the chance on the plane or in town?
I think right now flights between HKG and SIN are about as safe as it can get. I'll be on one soon and am not worried at all.
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 8:25 am
  #2585  
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Originally Posted by Stgermainparis
Are you guys seriously canceling trips as far out as July? No judgement, just wondering if my own thinking is off. We've got a 2-week family trip to Tokyo, Kyoto, Beijing for the first half of July, and I wasn't going to pull the plug until late May (when maybe the virus would slow down due to warmer weather). And even then, I figured we'd just cut Beijing from the itinerary. My thinking has been if things are so problematic in Japan that travel there is unwise then travel anywhere in Asia and/or Europe at this point (Italy!) or even Hawaii will likely be unwise (in which case we're all stuck home for the foreseeable future). I mean, I'll cancel the trip if I have to, but I don't want to do it prematurely. And if I do Europe or Hawaii instead, for example, that may blow up, too. And then if we hunker down at our Florida condo, we are then in a building with 100s of others, including tourists coming and going, unlike being home in our single unit house with tourists unlikely and only neighbors coming and going. Just seems like so much is so unpredictable right now.

My more immediate concern has been the family spring break in LAS in two weeks. All those buffets...egads.
It's a combination of factors. I am booked on a Europe-HKG flight that I want to cancel in early May once the waiver is extended. If I cancel that, then my return HKG-Europe for July will also be cancelled. At that point is it worth taking my award flight to Japan for 10 days then finding a new flight to Europe and stressing over the possibility of this situation getting worse between now and then, or cancelling the flight to Japan for no fee and using those miles to just get to Europe and save the Japan trip for another time? I haven't cancelled my JFK-HND or my Japanese hotels YET, but once the flight back to Europe is off the table, likely won't make sense to go to Japan. Waiting and watching to see when/if Finnair roll their travel waiver forward as I would really like to unwind the May flights.
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 8:34 am
  #2586  
 
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Originally Posted by yosithezet
I wouldn’t advise anyone to visit Singapore now. Why take the chance on the plane or in town?
I too like the quietness at Marina Bay area and other places.
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 9:05 am
  #2587  
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Originally Posted by narvik
Translated excerpt from previous post:

"The Ministry of Culture and Tourism states that Chinese tourists are treated unfairly in the United States and urges tourists not to go there."
The average Chinese tourist wouldn’t be able to “go there” unless they spent the previous two weeks outside China.
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 9:39 am
  #2588  
 
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Originally Posted by trueblu
Likelihood of Chinese importation of COVID-19, with Hubei still under lockdown, is now negligible. Literally 80% of the countries of the world probably represent a higher risk today.

In other news, markets are finally realising they haven't priced the pandemic properly...but today's opening is just the beginning I would reckon...

The Italy situation appears to be containable, assuming reporting is accurate. Active surveillance from sl. more competent neighbours e.g. Germany, France and Switzerland may help understand true extent. Korea much less so, and Iran is just a huge black hole. Not much news coming from Japan...

tb
I wish I could share your optimism regarding Italy. In fact, I think Europe is in far greater trouble than Asia. There are no hard borders in the Schengen zone. If a migrant can make it from Northern Africa to Germany then you can bet coronavirus is already well and truly dispersed throughout mainland Europe. We can effectively consider the Schengen zone to be one large country as far as coronavirus is concerned unless/until the Schengen countries all agree to restrict freedom of movement. The only difference is that at least China and the US have one government for the entire country. The EU has 27 and my experience is that they are not good at talking/working with each other during a crisis.
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 9:59 am
  #2589  
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Originally Posted by doctoravios
We can effectively consider the Schengen zone to be one large country as far as coronavirus is concerned unless/until the Schengen countries all agree to restrict freedom of movement. The only difference is that at least China and the US have one government for the entire country. The EU has 27 and my experience is that they are not good at talking/working with each other during a crisis.
On the other hand, social distancing may be easier to implement in Europe due to a strong social safety net and labor rules . Fewer people who will face severe economic hardship if they can’t go to work.

By the way, it doesn’t require agreement of all Schengen members to temporarily reintroduce border controls.

https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/wh...der-control_en

That doesn’t mean I feel good about the Italy situation.
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 10:26 am
  #2590  
 
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Originally Posted by notquiteaff
On the other hand, social distancing may be easier to implement in Europe due to a strong social safety net and labor rules . Fewer people who will face severe economic hardship if they can’t go to work.

By the way, it doesn’t require agreement of all Schengen members to temporarily reintroduce border controls.

https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/wh...der-control_en

That doesn’t mean I feel good about the Italy situation.
No one is actually more concerned about Iran? 5 deaths in Italy, and 10 times that number in Iran (if you believe this lawmaker). If not, then the death toll is 12, which is still more than double what we have in Italy. So...how many infections if they're up to 12 or 50 deaths already?). https://nypost.com/2020/02/24/iran-l...n-city-of-qom/
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 10:41 am
  #2591  
 
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Originally Posted by STS-134
No one is actually more concerned about Iran? 5 deaths in Italy, and 10 times that number in Iran (if you believe this lawmaker). If not, then the death toll is 12, which is still more than double what we have in Italy. So...how many infections if they're up to 12 or 50 deaths already?). https://nypost.com/2020/02/24/iran-l...n-city-of-qom/
See my reply just couple of hours earlier. And I said the same yesterday.
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 10:53 am
  #2592  
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Originally Posted by STS-134
No one is actually more concerned about Iran? 5 deaths in Italy, and 10 times that number in Iran (if you believe this lawmaker). If not, then the death toll is 12, which is still more than double what we have in Italy. So...how many infections if they're up to 12 or 50 deaths already?). https://nypost.com/2020/02/24/iran-l...n-city-of-qom/
I don’t know what to read into individual countries’ death numbers. The Princess pax seem to be doing reasonably well in that regard (3 out of 691, with a population that is likely dominated by old people) while Italy has 6 deaths with 223 reported infected.

What does concern me about Iran is how it has spread the virus around the area (neighboring countries).

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#news

That implies to me that travelers to various parts of Iran have had a pretty good chance of encountering an infected person.

On the other hand... how much faith should one put into the ability of, say, Iraq or Afghanistan to test accurately? Malaysia reported two positive test results for the Westerdam pax, and it later turned out to be inaccurate.
Last edited by notquiteaff; Feb 24, 2020 at 11:00 am
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 10:55 am
  #2593  
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Originally Posted by invisible
Good article about moving from containment to mitigation once pandemic is declared
https://techcrunch.com/2020/02/23/wh...pandemic-hits/
So, if we switch to implementing social distancing (as part of mitigation efforts), how would this work in terms of travel, most of which is public and mass in form? Like public transport (bus/metro), air, train, and ship? The only thing left will be car, bike, or walk.
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 11:20 am
  #2594  
 
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Originally Posted by nk15
So, if we switch to implementing social distancing (as part of mitigation efforts), how would this work in terms of travel, most of which is public and mass in form? Like public transport (bus/metro), air, train, and ship? The only thing left will be car, bike, or walk.
I think priorities matter and travel is not a priority. Health and life/death is...
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 11:25 am
  #2595  
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Originally Posted by invisible
I think priorities matter and travel is not a priority. Health and life/death is...
I think the better term is really transportation (commuting). Those who can avoid it should do it in a social distancing scenario. Hopefully the reduced “load” will allow for buses, subways to be less crowded for those who have to use them.

If companies curtail domestic business travel in the US and people decide to cancel their spring break trip or visit to grandma, flights would likely be fairly empty (and likely cancelled?).
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