jiejie

FWI, a thread has been started on the Korea forum for COVID-19 information related to the situation in South Korea, in case anyone would like to post there vs this China forum, where prospective travelers to Korea might not think to look.

yosithezet

Can you add it to the Wikipost?

jiejie

Done.

yosithezet

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news...y-moh-12462192

Singaporeans advised to defer non-essential travel to South Korean cities affected by COVID-19: MOHSINGAPORE: Singaporeans are advised to avoid non-essential travel to the South Korean cities of Daegu and Cheongdo as the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases from the area continues to rise, the Ministry of Health (MOH) said in a public health travel advisory on Sunday (Feb 23).

Members of the public are also reminded to continue to exercise caution when travelling to the rest of South Korea.
[snip]

invisible

Nothing about Italy, Iran and Japan?

If things continue blow up the way it happened last several days, all these warnings would make little sense...

NewbieRunner

NHK (Japan’s national broadcasting organization) is reporting on early discussions between the Japanese and US governments regarding Diamond Princess and her passengers.

The Japanese side initially proposed that American passengers (the second largest group by nationality after the Japanese) be disembarked and returned to the US early, but the US government responded that after discussion with CDC “it is anticipated that the risk of infection will increase if passengers are disembarked and moved to Yokota Air Base.”

If true this adds an interesting twist to the whole Diamond Princess saga. I have not been able to find the news reported by any other news source so far.

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/202...297661000.html
(in Japanese)

trueblu

Fantastically sensible post...agree with all of the above.

tb

trueblu

A few musings:

The number of new cases in non-Hubei mainland China is now negligible (18), but Hubei is still continuing to report several hundred cases: represents less than 1% growth/ day but not close to zero.

No-one in the Chinese gov seems to have read the memo that this COVID-19 is now an international pandemic in all but name, so efforts at containment and eradication are futile. Why this may be important is that the policy of trying to identify every case in a place with a high prevalence (i.e. Hubei) may actually be facilitating transmission rather than the other way around. On the flip side, in places with low prevalence, mass self-isolation, and identifying cases appears to be an effective strategy. This might provide a model for every other country on the planet in the coming weeks and months: in the early stages of local transmission, a few hundred cases being likely, trying to identify cases aggressively may be effective in limiting onward transmission: SG, and to an extent the UK are great examples of this in action. But once cases start growing exponentially in a sustained fashion, focusing only on severely ill people should become the priority: all other symptomatic cases who are not severely ill should be mandated (if at all possible, otherwise strongly encouraged) to self-isolate to limit onward transmission. This won't halt spread, since some people are so mildly symptomatic or asymptomatic, but it will slow things down.

2. Chinese compliance has been extraordinary. Not to say some (many) people aren't frustrated, or even angry. But, by and large, people have obeyed. But that's because China essentially operates under social contract. What no-one in China has realised, is that all of this extraordinary effort has basically delayed the spread to all major non-Hubei hubs. Complete containment in China has absolutely no effect (weather and other unknown factors aside) if there is lack of containment globally. It's one thing to suffer for a month, or even two, as recompense for averting catastrophe, but at some point, life has to go on in some semblance. If that life involves China opening its doors to the rest of the world, we'll just have the same situation that was trying to be avoided. However, I do think lessons have been learnt that will mitigate the rate of spread once COVID-19 becomes re-established in CHina, which I think is sadly inevitable.

tb

invisible

Mainstream and reliable/trusted/objective media finally started calling things its real names:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51603251

World edges closer to coronavirus pandemic

Analysis by Fergus Walsh, BBC Medical Correspondent

The combined situation in South Korea, Iran and Italy points to the early stages of pandemic. This means a global outbreak, with the coronavirus spreading in the community in multiple parts of the world.

P.S. Korea has 602 cases...

• Last few days progression of total cases in South Korea:
  • Feb. 23: 602 cases (day still in progress)
  • Feb. 22: 436 cases
  • Feb. 21: 209 cases
  • Feb. 20: 111 cases
  • Feb. 19: 58 cases
  • Feb. 18: 31 cases

adrianlondon

A more calming article: https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/lif...at-is-covid-19

A couple of paragraphs:

"Do we really need to use hand sanitisers for hand hygiene? The reality is that soap and water will do. We also know that the coronavirus is quickly inactivated by plain tap water. However, we must get rid of the mucus envelope that protects the virus. Hence the soap is useful and for surfaces we need to ensure that the droplets with attendant load of mucus is cleaned off."

"Why do some patients have a mild disease while others are warded in intensive care? This is because when there is a huge viral load, the body responds massively. In healthcare workers, our immune systems are constantly challenged as we meet lots of patients daily and are exposed to the viruses or bacteria that they carry. Our immune system is primed to deliver an overwhelming response especially in the face of a huge viral load. It is precisely this overwhelming response that may make us very ill and be warded into intensive care."

Stgermainparis

Good idea. But don’t actually flush them. We had a major backup once due to those flushable wipes and plumber said it is the #1 thing he sees for clogs.

cockpitvisit

How are we supposed to know that if we don't even have a reliable test for the virus (since some people who tested negative later tested positive)?

I understand the survival of coronaviruses in general has been studied thoroughly in the past decade, but are we absolutely sure these results apply to COVID-2019 as well? It seems quite different from past coronaviruses, starting with the incubation period and lack of immunity in patients who recovered.

invisible

Any more data/specifics about below news?

Latest Updates

February 23 (GMT):

57 new cases (55 crew members and 2 passengers, of which 52 asymptomatic) and 1 new death (a man in his 80s) from the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan.

Data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#news

P.S. Coronavirus outbreak: Turkey and Pakistan close borders with Iran

trueblu

Washing with soap and water is completely fine: I'm not sure about just water 'inactivating' the virus: the act of washing with water will dislodge a lot of virus, but all, not sure. But the point of hand sanitizer is that it's portable. I never normally use hand sanitizer, but I have been doing so lately -- but only when I'm out and about. When I get off the bus, I can't just wash my hands with soap and water before I inadvertently touch my face. Hand sanitizer will do the trick.

I'm not seeing data that suggests SARS-Cov2 is completely different to other coronaviruses. It's pathogenicity appears to be between the 'common cold' ones and SARS, it's contagiousness appears fairly similar. It's molecular architecture and structure again are fairly similar, and the mode of severe disease and death are very similar to SARS/MERS, but appears to effect a smaller proportion of infected cases. I haven't seen any data that people aren't immune after recovery.

In terms of heterogeneous responses: this is true for ALL infectious diseases, and it's something we don't fully understand in any. It could be the number of receptors for viral entry (ACE-2), it could be primed or misprimed immunity. It could be pathogen load. For sure, healthcare workers do seem to have worse outcomes than non-healthcare workers with similar age profiles. It could be that repeated exposure before onset of protective adaptive immunity is to blame, it could be just pathogen load or the combination of the two. I don't buy the 'doctors immune systems are almost ready to go haywire' theory...in fact, when I compare myself with my family, I tend to get less severe bouts of whatever tends to be going round. Part of that may be borderline obsessive hand washing as part of my routine, but also part of it may be that my immune system has 'sampled' far more pathogens than my family members. Of course, with SARS-CoV2, that is probably not much help, since we've never seen anything quite like it.

I am intrigued by why children have consistently had mild disease. There are a bunch of theories floating around. It could just be that children are more likely to have been infected by other coronaviruses more recently, and there may be an element of cross-protective immunity. Very young (<5 years old) children also have immature immune systems, and that may prevent the full-blown immunopathology, but teenagers shouldn't be that different to adults.

tb

GadgetFreak

I wonder if there is some cross reactivity to related viruses that is either protective or even leading to the out of control immune cascade in some people. In theory it could lead to either or response depending on host genetics or other factors.