STS-134

Interesting, so that does fall within the jet age, but not within my lifetime.

If you can somehow isolate everyone into groups of 2, with no contact between the individual groups, then you should be able to stop the virus by quarantining everyone in the world for double the incubation period (28 days), testing everyone, and then throwing anyone who is still testing positive into quarantine.

Well, it's actually fairly easy, assuming one is willing to travel to areas without elevators and public transport. Go to an isolated ranch in the middle of Nevada and you won't have to deal with public transport, cities, elevators, or many other people for the entire time you're there. Of course, not the entire world can afford to do this (and even if everyone wanted to, it wouldn't be possible, because we'd quickly run out of open land without people on it), but I think most individuals on FT should be able to pull this off. Assuming you actually want to do this of course.

I suppose it really depends on how much we can believe the numbers coming out of China, minus the numbers from Hubei.

I wonder if we should start taking bets on when the CDC throws up a Level 3 advisory for Iran, Japan, and South Korea. I still have hope that the latter two will crack down on this and stop the spread, but Iran didn't report cases until two people had died of it. That tells me that they got caught completely unprepared.

Maybe time to go to LNY or MKK for a few weeks if this gets worse? Assuming you can find a detached building to stay in near LNY, you can probably reduce contact with others to as little as once per week, visiting a store to buy food in Lana'i City.

nk15

Although some people may see discount travel opportunities for bookings now or in the near future, my suggestion is to at least not tie any scarce funds on future travel that you may need for emergencies in the future, until it is clear how this develops in the next couple of months.

GetSetJetSet

Kicking myself for all of the autistic booking I did in late 2019, I had booked everything from Dec, 26 2019 through Sept 24, 2020 before Christmas, now I am in the process of unwinding stuff and hoping for waivers to get $ back for others. Not even going to worry about summer trips, we could be living in a different world by then. Supposed to go over to Europe mid-March, not even sure what things will look like by then with Italy having an outbreak.

onlyairfare

I'm just a family doc, not an ID specialist, but OTOH, I see a couple dozen sick people everyday at work. I appreciate the information and advice offered here.

nk15

Interestingly many sanitizing wipes on the market say are not certified as effective for the new virus, although some disinfectant sprays are. My thinking though is that not much would be certified anyway, but at least they would severely weaken the virus so still offer some protection. Any suggestions from trublue?

nk15

It is really hard to make accurate predictions and related decisions, we could all be grossly overreacting here, or grossly underreacting as well.

GadgetFreak

I’m guessing most haven’t even had time to be tested yet.

GetSetJetSet

Of course. I unwound my planned May trip to HKG/Indonesia/Malaysia, keeping the other stuff on the board for now and seeing how it goes.

Hoyaheel

This virus is completely different from influenza. I don't think vaccines could be combined ( I work with vaccine developers but I'm not that kind of scientist. Still....)

For survival, there are many organizations in the US (presumably other places as well - I just haven't looked) who have basic and advanced emergency preparedness checklists online. We live in rural NC and power loss from hurricanes or ice storms can be an issue, so we are prepared...

As for wipes that kill covid-19, bleach and alcohol and at least one other thing can kill it on surfaces (I can't remember that entire slide from the talk I attended Wednesday) It's an enveloped rna virus which apparently is a good thing because its easy to kill. Outside the body, at least ;-)

747FC

Hospital-grade Bleach Germicidal Wipes is made by Clorox Healthcare, and can be found for sale on Amazon. It has a very strong odor of bleach, and to be effective, the surface must be drenched in the wipe solution and kept wet for minutes. While effective for viruses, paroviruses, TB, etc., coronavirus is not mentioned on the packaging.

nk15

This is the other issue though, some of that stuff may be too strong/unpleasant and not practical for frequent use, so I am not sure what the right balance would be.

As for emergency preparedness check lists, these seem helpful, but my sense is that the are designed for short term major catastrophic events, so it is harder to extrapolate what would be needed for a more moderate and protracted emergency of a different kind, and where will be the needs and shortages, if any.

wco81

Yeah this stuff is harsh on the skin and it may cause chafing or peeling, which then reduces the protection of the skin.

phorid

Speaking of gloomy, 23 Diamond Princess passengers disembarked without recent testing.

Health minister apologizes after 23 passengers let off Diamond Princess without additional coronavirus tests
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20.../#.XlGrYEpOmM8

notquiteaff

I’d just curtail my daily trips to the market/mall. Stock up on some shelf-stable supplies and stay at home or go to places where you aren’t surrounded by lots of people/tourists and where there isn’t a lot to touch (door handles, elevator buttons, ...). Remote beaches sound like a great place to be right about now.

In my lifetime, but I don’t recall it. Interesting event.

yes, I think the general FT population probably has an above average ability to get through this safe and sound.


I suspect their medical infrastructure (critical care) is probably also not in good shape after years of not being able to buy western gear. In any case, very concerning.

Stay safe, doc! You are our first line of defense and a lot of medical personell seems to have gotten infected in Asia.

DistrictOfColumbia

South China Morning Post: 630 New Cases. Xi JingPing: not at peak.