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Old Jan 27, 2020, 9:09 am
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Coronavirus / COVID-19 : general fact-based reporting

 
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 9:55 pm
  #2641  
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Maybe when spring finally comes, someone will decide that it's no longer appropriate/patriotic to set the AC temp to frigid. Let's roast that virus to nice and extremely well done so that it's totally dead.
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 9:56 pm
  #2642  
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Originally Posted by notquiteaff
Meanwhile, 18 new cases in the US. The Princess keeps on giving.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html

426 total tests performed in the US.
So, we have 36 total cases from the DP cruise ship, which means in addition to the 14 knowingly transported on the evacuation flight, there are 22 new infections. The question is, did those 22 get infected on the evacuation flight, because the state department overruled the CDC regarding evacuating the 14 infected ones?

Last edited by nk15; Feb 24, 2020 at 10:23 pm
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 9:57 pm
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Originally Posted by nk15
If you read that article you see how woefully inadequate is the request, compared to what experts suggest. I don't even want to think how an epidemic will be managed in the US under the current conditions, but I can imagine widespread panic and confusion, incompetence, denial, and coverups....
If that's what it's going to take to change things and actually have a government that's prepared next time, so be it.
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 9:59 pm
  #2644  
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Originally Posted by MSPeconomist
Maybe when spring finally comes, someone will decide that it's no longer appropriate/patriotic to set the AC temp to frigid. Let's roast that virus to nice and extremely well done so that it's totally dead.
In theory, if everyone around the world could shelter in place and turn the AC off for 2-3 weeks we could probably eradicate it. But that's not realistic.
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Last edited by nk15; Feb 25, 2020 at 11:27 am
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 10:21 pm
  #2645  
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Originally Posted by nk15
If you read that article you see how woefully inadequate is the request, compared to what experts suggest. I don't even want to think how an epidemic will be managed in the US under the current conditions, but I can imagine widespread panic and confusion, incompetence, denial, and coverups....

I am really hoping for a weather miracle...
This article talks about limited responsibility and power of the CDC vs the thousands of state and county health departments.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...l-mess/606595/

Is any of the funding going to the local level?

Also makes me think about the concern voiced earlier about the EU structure... seems not all that different here.

Originally Posted by nk15
So, we have 36 total cases from the DP cruise ship, which means in addition to the 14 knowingly transported on the evacuation flight, there are 22 new infections. The question is, did those 22 were infected on the evacuation flight, because the state department overruled the CDC regarding evacuating the 14 infected ones?
It would be interesting and useful to know, but I would be surprised if we ever find out.

Originally Posted by helvetic
What activities requires a cruise ship to randomly sail around?
dumping waste water and generating fresh water through desalination, I think. They still have nearly a thousand people aboard (crew).
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 10:42 pm
  #2646  
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Originally Posted by notquiteaff
This article talks about limited responsibility and power of the CDC vs the thousands of state and county health departments.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...l-mess/606595/

Is any of the funding going to the local level?

Also makes me think about the concern voiced earlier about the EU structure... seems not all that different here.
Interesting article indeed. You would hope that he CDC would be given more authority, what is the point of a federal government if they can't take charge in a pandemic situation. Assuming of course that they can be trusted to be honest and respected scientists in charge of policy and decisions, as opposed to political appointees or have other conflicts of interest...

But if it comes down to the state and county level, it may vary a lot, and hopefully you live in a good state....
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Last edited by nk15; Feb 24, 2020 at 11:03 pm
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 10:46 pm
  #2647  
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Meanwhile a Chinese firm announced its copied remdesivir and can manufacture it.

Also a Chinese Academy of Sciences Wuhan Institute of virology applied for a patent on using remdesivir to treat Covid-19.

Of course Gilead claims all patents around the drug though supposedly the CEO said they wouldn’t get into a patent dispute.

On top of all those controversies, Chinese IP law does provide for compulsory licenses for eligible companies to produce generic versions of patented drugs during a state of emergency or other unusual circumstances, or in the interests of the public.

However, authorities will not likely apply it to remdesivir, especially now that Gilead’s offering it free of charge and as drug IP remains a sensitive topic on the international community’s radar.
https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma-...ew-coronavirus

Gilead stock closed up 3.1% but was up as much as 6%. But a BofA analyst said remdesivir wouldn’t materially benefit the company’s finances other than perhaps a one-time $2.5 billion revenue bump, noting that the drug isn’t approved for any use as of now.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s-drug-testing
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 10:58 pm
  #2648  
 
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Originally Posted by nk15
So, we have 36 total cases from the DP cruise ship, which means in addition to the 14 knowingly transported on the evacuation flight, there are 22 new infections. The question is, did those 22 get infected on the evacuation flight, because the state department overruled the CDC regarding evacuating the 14 infected ones?
I suspect it will be next to impossible to figure out however Australia, Israel and the UK all got passengers who tested negative in Japan and Positive once evacuated so statistically you'd expect that the US should also get some. Personally I'd say the measures that were put in place to keep those passengers quarantined on the plane were a lot better than the measures put in place to keep the passengers quarantined on the boat so my guess would by by far the majority, and likely all, the passengers who subsequently tested positive got it before and not from the 14.
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 11:30 pm
  #2649  
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Originally Posted by IMOA
I suspect it will be next to impossible to figure out however Australia, Israel and the UK all got passengers who tested negative in Japan and Positive once evacuated so statistically you'd expect that the US should also get some.
Do we know what the cause for those changes in test results could be? A significant number of false negatives in Japanese tests? Infection not yet progressed enough to detect it when first tested? And what conclusions should we thus draw from this for other “tested negative” results? It doesn’t really seem to mean much if someone tests negative. (or positive... in Malaysia?)
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 11:42 pm
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My assumption is that they were only recently infected and the ‘test’ didn’t show positive until the person had it for a few days (or whatever period). But that’s kinda reading between lines and making assumptions so some big grains of salt there.
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Old Feb 25, 2020, 12:39 am
  #2651  
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Originally Posted by notquiteaff
I think real scientists are working on stuff like that without needing our prodding
I’m not so sure I trust what “real scientists” are doing right now since almost everyday there is something new and unforeseen about this virus. I certainly don’t trust a single word that comes out of the WHO.
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Old Feb 25, 2020, 1:25 am
  #2652  
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This thread has become a valuable resource on Corona Virus/COVID-19 in general and no longer just about its impact on China travel.

In order for the thread to remain fact-based and useful, posters are reminded to keep it free of speculation, conjecture and fear-mongering. Posts which do not meet these guidelines or which break the FT rules may be edited or deleted. Please observe the following FT rules in particular:

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Old Feb 25, 2020, 3:57 am
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has now split out the Diamond Princess from Japan (maybe by request from Japan?) and lists it now as its own "country":






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Old Feb 25, 2020, 3:58 am
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Originally Posted by MSPeconomist
Meanwhile, I stopped procrastinating and bought some masks today. A suburban Target (not the biggest one in the area, but convenient for me today) didn't have any in stock, but I found a small supply at Home Depot:

3M 2-pack N95 masks nonvalve respirator for $5.49

HDX (made in China) 15-pack N95 valve respirator for $20.97

I was a bit surprised that this was so easy as I've been beating myself up a bit for not having done this errand earlier. At the moment, I'm not sure what travel is on the horizon for me (in principle, a research conference in Seoul????? another one in Milano???????), but I thought I should acquire some masks just in case, possibly to be gifted to friends/colleagues from China/Japan/Korea.
Originally Posted by notquiteaff
That’s a good deal. I paid around $15 for 10 3Ms with valve, on Amazon when the West was on fire. Currently could reorder them for $40. One problem with the M95 is that they take up a lot of space in my carry on bag. On my last trip I put one in a Tupperware container to prevent it from getting crushed.
No supplies in our local stores. I went to Amazon yesterday and all Amazon Prime eligible are out of stock. They do take pre-orders for future supplies

Many small third party sellers have them on stock. 3M 8200s are around $3.50 including shipping. 3M 8511s vary between $5.50 and $12.00. Both have valves. I chose to avoid new sellers so paid between $7 and $8 each in two separate 10-piece orders of 8511, the most comfortable type, advertised for 30% better breathing than 8200s..

There were three sellers of 10 per box package Sunday, asking for around $30 per each box + $70-80 shipping. All were out of stock Monday morning

Other brands vary from $2 (no valve) to $12.

Originally Posted by 747FC
Before purchasing an N95 mask, one should look to see whether the mask is FDA-approved. I've investigated a bunch of them, and most of the ones being sold for less are not FDA-approved and are excellent for tasks like carpentry. 3M has technical sheets on their various N95s.
FDA approval are for medical facilities and NIOSH approval are for industry. Best to have both but this is not necessary, Watch for fake claim of FDA approval implying anti-virus, which does not exist. Also FDA-approval does not require N-95, so be careful to make sure you are getting the N-95. Some reviews complain about possible fake open box products.

After reading a UA medical doctor's interview and several sources trying to establish aerosol transmission, it seems that N95 may be valuable in crowded trains and airplanes on ground before takeoff and after landing, but not needed in flight or in airport terminals.
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Old Feb 25, 2020, 4:11 am
  #2655  
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Originally Posted by invisible
Are they still flying? Is there a guideline to suspend routes based on CDC or State Department warning levels or it is entirely up the airline?
They do.

GDS availability:

- tomorrow - almost full (5 seats in PY and 3 seats in coach still available for sale), I guess everyone leaves Korea:

26FEB WED SEL/Z‡9 DTW/EST-14
DL RESPONSE ** DIRECT CONNECT PARTICIPANT **
13DL 158 J0 C0 D0 I0 Z0 P5 A5 G5 Y3 B2 ICNDTW 1050 0957 359 0
M1 H1 Q0 K0 L0 U0 T0 X0 V0 E1
- from the day after tomorrow - fairly open (at least in coach)

27FEB THU SEL/Z‡9 DTW/EST-14
DL RESPONSE ** DIRECT CONNECT PARTICIPANT **
13DL 158 J1 C1 D0 I0 Z0 P8 A8 G7 Y9 B9 ICNDTW 1050 0957 359 0
M9 H9 Q9 K9 L9 U9 T9 X9 V9 E9
28FEB FRI SEL/Z‡9 DTW/EST-14
DL RESPONSE ** DIRECT CONNECT PARTICIPANT **
13DL 158 J9 C9 D9 I9 Z9 P9 A9 G9 Y9 B9 ICNDTW 1050 0957 359 0
M9 H9 Q9 K9 L9 U9 T9 X9 V9 E9
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