FlyBitcoin

According to this analysis https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-be9337092b56 we seem to be doing more of what I marked with the red X before properly limiting or even eliminating commercial air travel domestically.

The US needs to protect the cold spots from the hot spots, at least while the "hammer" phase of 3 weeks is going on.

At a minimum, let the airlines run cargo-only flights, but the cost-benefit is pretty clear. Also, the bailout one day will be more costly with the airlines running than shut down to passenger travel for 3 weeks. Not sure why international travel is different from domestic travel when we have numbers like NY compared to the numbers in the domestic destination city.

3 weeks. That is all. Limit new infections during that time. Then reopen with a society well educated in social distancing.

jmastron

I agree that striking the right cost/benefit is critical, but I will note that from what I can google, both South Korea and Japan have closed their schools and universities, right? What are the other key differences (besides testing) in the South Korea/Japan approach vs, say California's? I'm genuinely looking for a detailed comparison because I want to understand, not at all doubting anyone.

It does seem that reducing density of contact overall, widespread testing, and widespread wearing some form of protective masks (not mainly to protect you but to reduce statistical spread), can all work together for a big benefit. Unfortunately in the US we can't yet do the latter 2, so have to bias more toward the first one, despite its large economic cost.

trueblu

I'm with you on this one...

FlyBitcoin

Without the masks, then the US will need more distancing in densely populated areas and standard social distancing in other areas. But schools will need to remain closed everywhere through the end of the spring semester. Classrooms are the most socially un-distant setting we have in many suburban and rural areas without weddings, meetings, and sporting events going on. We cannot just reopen them for two weeks at the end of the year. They probably will reopen for events like AP exams where they can be proctored at 5 students per room instead of 20.

But if we all just wash our hands and assume that every table, armrest, and doorknob could be infected because the last person who was there coughed on it and was not wearing a mask. So my hope is handwashing can make up for some of the lack of masks except possibly if someone in the household is sick or if you travel in full airplanes and subways or congregate in large groups, but handwashing can make up for it in other settings.

And a scarf is better than nothing at all. But I get triggered when anyone in the US says that masks don't work. Their opinion would be different if every household had a box of masks.

trueblu

I am encouraging everyone I know to make home-made washable cloth masks, to reduce onward transmission...IF anyone knows any clothing manufacturer moguls, getting them on-board would also be good, but I've drawn a blank there myself for the most part.

I realise this goes against the official US/European guidelines, but it doesn't go against my understanding of the science...

tb

rustykettel

Like this maybe?

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3373043/

FlyBitcoin

Here is one example in NYC: https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article...s-andrew-cuomo

rustykettel

I also think it needs to go hand in hand with educating people about the difference between an N95 mask and a surgical mask/scarf/barrier device and WHY it should used. There's far too much people are stupid, won't act the way we want and might panic, so let's keep them in the dark and treat them like children.

FlyBitcoin

For protective suits, the material is made here but the suits are fabricated elsewhere.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/21/coro...-shortage.html

Have not heard much about this fabrication coming back to the USA.
Clearly these are not as important as a properly fit N-95, but they are important, and it is something that is already made here and we were exporting just a few weeks ago.

username

I watched a lot of videos posted by Mainland Chinese Youtubers in February. The kind of caution they take is serious - keeping distance on queues, getting sprayed with alcohol when they get home, etc.

Now a lot of Taiwanese are going back to TW and here is how some picked up their families: at 8:00

This is why what I see in the US really worries me - not only the government is not forceful enough with the preparations and controls, the citizens are also not taking enough caution (other than shopping for food and toilet paper).

jmastron

The College Board has already announced that AP exams will be at-home only. My HS junior is not happy about this, as the format they've been preparing for is going to be very different (only covering the first 2/3 of material in each subject, 45 minutes of free-response questions, presumably because that's easier to detect cheating on than multiple choice). And SAT March (including the wishful-thinking makeup dates they set) and May dates have been canceled; the next one is June 6 but I'd give that 50/50.

Agree -- there's a lot of all-or-nothing thinking that can be dangerous right now. Wearing a mask that only reduces my chances of getting it by say 10%, and only reduces my chances of unknowingly passing it on by 50% is still immensely valuable to society if most people do the same.

TravelingZoomer

Posted in the mask wearing thread



https://academic.oup.com/annweh/article/54/7/789/202744

For any of you DIY people out there, you can make masks at home. The most effective material to use would be a vacuum bag (but it’s difficult to breathe with). The second most effective material is an old tshirt made out of cloth.

Also, people are continuously citing masks don’t work to protect you. I find this claim dubious at best.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3306645/


facemask protection was found to be 45 per cent, while under expiratory emissions, protection varied from 33 to 100 per cent.


Pretty sure 33% (at the low end) is a lot better than 0%. But again it’s not about you, it’s about protecting others in case you have it. If the logic goes that you wearing a mask protects others, if everyone wears a mask than we all protect each other

doctoravios

Just an update worth highlighting on clinical presentation of COVID-19 in case it has not been previously discussed: there is now growing evidence that infection doesn't always lead to cough, fever and shortness of breath. A significant proportion of infected people present with other features such as abdominal pain, diarrhoea and anosmia (loss of sense of smell). COVID-19 is not just cough/fever/shortness of breath and I think we need to get the message out to the general public that any new onset illness could potentially be related to COVID-19. I think we are potentially missing millions of people who have been infected and develop non-respiratory symptoms.

We urgently need to develop and implement serology testing to identify people who have been exposed but may not have realised as they did not experience the classical respiratory presentation. I am quite skeptical about whether current PCR tests are correctly identifying infected individuals and I think there is a significant false negative rate which is falsely reassuring people who are actually infected.

username

This guy, Epidemiologist Larry Brilliant, https://www.ted.com/talks/larry_bril...stop_pandemics , gave an interview recently on Covid-19: https://www.wired.com/story/coronavi...pidemiologist/

QtownDave

On ABC news they just reported a new Instant Test Kits being available soon with results in minutes instead of the days now required.