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Old Jan 27, 2020, 9:09 am
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Coronavirus / COVID-19 : general fact-based reporting

 
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Old Jan 25, 2020, 7:31 pm
  #181  
 
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Originally Posted by JPDM
The issue is that it does not mean that the virus is spreading. It means that more people are being diagnosed. Hard to tell if it is spreading or not.
Valid point.
You've mentioned that due the CNY holidays nobody is working at this moment, but by the end of the next week, holidays should be over. After that people were supposed to go to work and daily lives and that is not going to happen.

I am interested to know if quarantine continues next several weeks and if it is going to be expanded, when it is going to show its effects on economy both in China and worldwide.

One thing to remember is that predictions how SARS going to affect local and world economy were much dire than the reality.
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Old Jan 25, 2020, 8:23 pm
  #182  
 
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So an update, the Coronavirus seems to have a reproductive number of 2.6. That means for every 1 person infected by the coronavirus, an average of 2.6 people will be infected by that single person. Those 2.6 infected will infect another 2.6 persons and so on until the virus is hindered. Currently, this mortality rate for this virus is hovering between 3%-4%. The normal flu has a mortality rate of under 1%. The "good news" is that the virus seems to target those that are mostly old and/or immunocompromised.
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Old Jan 25, 2020, 8:27 pm
  #183  
 
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2000 reported cases now in China. True number must quite a bit higher. Wondering if I should postpone my trip this coming week.
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Old Jan 25, 2020, 8:41 pm
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Originally Posted by uanj
2000 reported cases now in China. True number must quite a bit higher. Wondering if I should postpone my trip this coming week.
If you do get infected you are probably risking a bad case of the flu unless you are elderly or immunocompromised. The issue I have is getting stuck in China if they impose another quarantine or a lower level of service due to workplace absenteeism.
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Old Jan 25, 2020, 8:51 pm
  #185  
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They have been shutting down many tourist attractions, so no point going to China for tourism at least in the next 3 weeks, these trips can be cancelled.
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Old Jan 25, 2020, 11:33 pm
  #186  
 
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Have connecting flights via TPE next week both directions. Hoping Taiwan doesn’t start seeing more cases.
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Old Jan 26, 2020, 12:52 am
  #187  
 
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First-hand report from the city in Mandarin. It is quite sad. In fact, if the person is infected, he may be better off getting better medical care elsewhere.
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Old Jan 26, 2020, 3:38 am
  #188  
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Originally Posted by nk15
They have been shutting down many tourist attractions, so no point going to China for tourism at least in the next 3 weeks, these trips can be cancelled.
So far I've read Beijing and Shanghai tourism sites like the Great Wall are closing to prevent public gathering. What about Guangzhou and Shenzhen? I was thinking of going there as well as Kaiping, but I may have to reconsider.
Last edited by lsquare; Jan 26, 2020 at 4:31 am
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Old Jan 26, 2020, 4:16 am
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New development:

.
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Old Jan 26, 2020, 6:19 am
  #190  
 
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Originally Posted by lsquare
So far I've read Beijing and Shanghai tourism sites like the Great Wall are closing to prevent public gathering. What about Guangzhou and Shenzhen? I was thinking of going there as well as Kaiping, but I may have to reconsider.
Yes. I would feel relatively safe taking a connecting flight through those airports but I wouldn't venture into the cities.
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Old Jan 26, 2020, 6:22 am
  #191  
 
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Yep, just saw that invisible....this means that any talk of 'containment' is futile. What's needed are strategies to drastically reduce onward transmission. My relatively simple suggestion is a) wash hands thoroughly and frequently, b) all people should wear masks when not alone, regardless of lack of symptoms. I would also suggest not going to hospitals unless actually unwell, e.g. difficulty breathing: this will be a tough one for the average Chinese person, who is programmed to attend an over-crowded hospital, mingling with the masses at the best of times at the first sign of a mild fever. But for the majority of people, who (currently) don't have the virus, hospitals are the most dangerous places to be...

tb
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Old Jan 26, 2020, 6:24 am
  #192  
 
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Originally Posted by lsquare
So far I've read Beijing and Shanghai tourism sites like the Great Wall are closing to prevent public gathering. What about Guangzhou and Shenzhen? I was thinking of going there as well as Kaiping, but I may have to reconsider.
Honestly, China is going to be closed for touristy things for the next few weeks (at least). The only possibility of things opening up more is if this thing becomes a global pandemic, so might as well get on with life as normal...

tb
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Old Jan 26, 2020, 6:41 am
  #193  
 
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Originally Posted by trueblu
Yep, just saw that invisible....this means that any talk of 'containment' is futile.
I think positive development is that some people already have recovered. It was mentioned that from 8 cases in Thailand, 5 recovered.

We need to see/know is how fast second and further level transmission occurs.

In other words - how many people becoming sick outside of China, but never been in Wuhan before. And, more importantly - how fast is/will be the spread of infection in such places.
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Old Jan 26, 2020, 6:46 am
  #194  
 
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Yep...in the 2009 swine 'flu pandemic, by the time the first cases in the US were detected, it had already gone global. This _doesn't_ yet appear to be the case, unless all of the secondary cases are extremely mild/ asymptomatic..

tb
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Old Jan 26, 2020, 7:01 am
  #195  
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Originally Posted by Diplomatico
Yes. I would feel relatively safe taking a connecting flight through those airports but I wouldn't venture into the cities.
I'm in Hong Kong for CNY, but I'm bored since I've been to HK many times in my life. That's why I asked about Shenzhen and Guangzhou. They're not event close to Wuhan so that's why I'm not scared.
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