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Old Jan 27, 2020, 9:09 am
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Coronavirus / COVID-19 : general fact-based reporting

 
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Old Mar 10, 2020 | 4:49 pm
  #3751  
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Is “close contact” a medical term? I see in Singapore’s contact tracing a difference between contact and close contact. Why?
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Old Mar 10, 2020 | 5:00 pm
  #3752  
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Originally Posted by yosithezet
Is close contact a medical term? I see in Singapores contact tracing a difference between contact and close contact. Why?


Close contacts mean people that you have prolonged interaction with, i.e. not just saying hello. But perhaps working in the same office, having a meal together, and of course household contacts.

I don't know, I'm assuming the Italians are washing their hands...doesn't seem to be doing much good. Also, remember that unless you are _amazing_ at not touching your face, washing your hands will only protect you until the next time you touch a surface, and then touch your face. A) masks reduce face touching behaviour, and B) if someone is infected, but wearing a mask outside of the home, the number of surfaces that they contaminate (which others will touch) decreases drastically..

[response to deleted comment removed by moderator]
tb

PS the major issue with masks for everyone, and it's a REAL issue is that we just don't have enough masks in the West...if we all have 2 masks and re-use every other day, that's still 600M needed in the US alone...which is 10x more than what's actually available...

Last edited by l etoile; Mar 10, 2020 at 7:45 pm Reason: Removed deleted quote
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Old Mar 10, 2020 | 5:36 pm
  #3753  
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I have not read much other than a few anecdotes about whether serum from survivors is proving helpful to those experiencing severe cases. Any news on that front?
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Old Mar 10, 2020 | 5:42 pm
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Originally Posted by trueblu
PS the major issue with masks for everyone, and it's a REAL issue is that we just don't have enough masks in the West...if we all have 2 masks and re-use every other day, that's still 600M needed in the US alone...which is 10x more than what's actually available...
Right. But perhaps, if we had better (more) test data, we'd get the biggest benefit from everyone-wears-a-mask by limiting that strategy to areas with widespread community spread (Seattle) and not, say, Rapid City, SD, to reuse Artemis' example. Then again, the areas with lots of cases are (naturally?) densely populated areas of the country, so the 75k masks saved in Rapid City SD don't get us very far. Plus it would annoy the citizens of that city if they don't get masks. I'd try to fashion my own mask from a coffee filter (size 4) if I didn't have a box of N95s from two years ago.

Originally Posted by artemis
And one reason timely and accurate testing is so important is that different levels of infection (sporadic cases versus early community spread versus widespread community transmission) may need different responses, and different locations in the US may be able to safely take different measures. The measures needed to get control of the situation in Seattle may be complete overkill for Rapid City SD. But without good data on where the infections are and how fast the disease is spreading, state and local officials are forced to guess about when to implement measures such as banning large public gatherings and closing schools.

Edit: that didn't age well...

"5 new cases, including 1 death in South Dakota (Pennington County)"

County seat of Pennington County is ... Rapid City.
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Old Mar 10, 2020 | 6:40 pm
  #3755  
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Originally Posted by IMOA
That wasn’t my experience in either Hong Kong or Singapore where we were checked, there wasn’t any remote suggestion that this was a health check or that we had been given the all clear. It was simply one of many things that they were doing to identify potential carriers and separate them as early as possible. Given the progression of the disease in those countries compared to others I know where I feel much safer.
It has the benefit of warning people who have mild symptoms to think twice, so they may not enter the place (e.g., hotel, store)

Originally Posted by narvik
So NOTHING at all to do with medical treatment one might receive?
Untrue

Originally Posted by GinFizz
I

EDIT: trueblu explained it far more accurately and politely than I could ...
No, the article also clearly states that "Sometimes people experience complications, and need extra care, such as breathing assistance, ventilators or even extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), which pumps blood outside a patient's body". Without which the "stress" on patients would be even greater.
True

Originally Posted by stimpy
I wrote "what matters the most to the most people". It should be obvious that most adults are healthy enough to withstand this virus or the flu. It is also correct that people who are not in good health have a rather high risk with Coronavirus and should take all precautions. For the rest of us, it should be business as usual and it will go back to just that once the panic is over.

I've been traveling a lot and while the passenger loads are down on planes and trains, I'm not the only one on board. There are plenty of others like me who aren't buying in to the panic.
I was in a uber the driver was a young lady. I asked her if she worries a passenger may be infected but does not have symptom. She replied "the viruses do not scare me, I am young and healthy, and even if I got so unlucky to be one of the very few young people killed by this virus, I am not afraid to die."

I then said: What if that passenger without symptom passes virus to you, you also have mild or no symptom and recover later, but during the interim you can pass the virus to passengers my age?

She immediately said, oh no, I don't want to do that.

Originally Posted by narvik
China's measures helped control the spread for sure.

It's also possible the rise in temperatures helped and is helping.
Made a quick chart showing temps in Wuhan, China (taking data from weather.com from Dec 1, 2019 to Mar 9, 2020, averaging daily high and daily low, red line is added "by hand"):


What you show is a typical seasonal cycle. We all hope the coming warm season will suppress the viruses. But one cannot use this figure to argue for a relationship. If you draw a time series of temperature of US it will show the opposite relationship with case number, To identify a temperature association one has to isolate all the non meteorological factors, including the counter measures such as healthcare infrastructure, behavior change of the masses and social distancing etc which clearly change with time.

Originally Posted by notquiteaff
8.72 degrees, to be “precise”.

The number was mentioned in the post below by Diplomatico.

I haven’t read the article or study yet, but given that we don’t even seem to know with certainty yet what transmission mechanisms “work best”, being able to determine the perfect temperature for the virus to spread with two decimal places precision seems amazing to me.
The paper has not been published, I can only read the linked article. The authors appear to be naive in going to the second digit of temperature values. They collected data from different locations and environments where other factors are not the same. There was no mention of any effort to stratify the data to remove these other factors. I know SYSU quite well, I was there in early December, organizing a WMO conference at School of Atmospheric Sciences. They have a strong medical school. But based on the linked article if I were the journal editor I will not send it out to peer review.
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Old Mar 10, 2020 | 6:45 pm
  #3756  
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Private philanthropy steps up funding Coronavirus testing, after failure of USA govt

Mark Zuckerberg and Bill Gates foundations are stepping up philanthropy funding to combat Coronavirus testing inadequacies by USA government.

https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/3/10...e-philanthropy
The outbreak offers tech billionaires a chance to change the narrative about themselves.
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Old Mar 10, 2020 | 6:51 pm
  #3757  
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Originally Posted by helvetic
Some (many) just don't understand exponential growth. It's a tricky concept for humans to natural grasp. I don't blame them for not getting it we didn't evolve counting things growing exponentially. When we were still hunter-gatherers and our brains evolved, things grew linearly.

Or maybe they know and they just feel better playing dumb than facing a harsh reality.



Wuhan coronavirus outbreak worries as it spread to HK & beyond

Yup, HK takes it super seriously. We remember SARS (not that I was here for it)



Not incompetence just reality. 1500 tests = 750 people. But when you first set up you need to use up a lot of tests to calibrate instruments etc. So really you only get a couple hundred people tested out of it.
My understanding is that Alaska has been extending their testing kits to cover more people. AFAICT the method is to aggregate samples from a lot of relatively low risk individuals and run the test together. If it's negative, all of them have been "proved" to be negative and if it's positive, the test would be rerun individually or in smaller groups to identify who is infected.

BTW a couple days ago in a USA hotel, not in an area with lots of cases, I was waiting for the elevator and heard someone coughing severely as she walked down the hall. In the elevator lobby, the guest continued to cough and made no attempt to cover her mouth. When the elevator arrived, I said that I would wait for the next one, at which point she sarcastically insisted that she didn't have corona. I wish I had thought to ask her whether she had been tested as it was extremely unlikely that she "knew" that she didn't have COVID-19.
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Old Mar 10, 2020 | 7:01 pm
  #3758  
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Originally Posted by PanAmWT
It has the benefit of warning people who have mild symptoms to think twice, so they may not enter the place (e.g., hotel, store)
What happens if you show up at the hotel or store with a slight fever?

I was in a uber the driver was a young lady. I asked her if she worries a passenger may be infected but does not have symptom. She replied "the viruses do not scare me, I am young and healthy, and even if I got so unlucky to be one of the very few young people killed by this virus, I am not afraid to die."

I then said: What if that passenger without symptom passes virus to you, you also have mild or no symptom and recover later, but during the interim you can pass the virus to passengers my age?

She immediately said, oh no, I don't want to do that.
yup. I am not super concerned about myself, though I don’t want to catch it even if I were to only suffer mild symptoms. But like many others, I have family and friends who are in the “danger” categories either due to age or other medical conditions. It’s not all about me.

The paper has not been published, I can only read the linked article. The authors appear to be naive in going to the second digit of temperature values. They collected data from different locations and environments where other factors are not the same. There was no mention of any effort to stratify the data to remove these other factors. I know SYSU quite well, I was there in early December, organizing a WMO conference at School of Atmospheric Sciences. They have a strong medical school. But based on the linked article if I were the journal editor I will not send it out to peer review.
That is pretty much the conclusion I came to after reading the SCMP article. I don’t know the authors or the school, but the “accuracy” of the temperature was a red flag. And then not considering that all other things aren’t equal just seems like a very big problem. I could probably quickly write a paper that correlates the mortality to altitude.
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Old Mar 10, 2020 | 7:37 pm
  #3759  
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Originally Posted by notquiteaff
What happens if you show up at the hotel or store with a slight fever?
You are not allowed to enter. You may also be directed to contact one of the 912 public health clinics, many of them private but enlisted by the govt. https://www.flugowhere.gov.sg/
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Last edited by l etoile; Mar 10, 2020 at 8:42 pm Reason: Removed quoted comment and response
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Old Mar 10, 2020 | 8:26 pm
  #3760  
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Originally Posted by paolo64
Agree. The latest news from Vietnam underscores the point: 10 new cases confirmed, all having flown London to Ho Chi Minh on the same Vietnam Airlines flight.
Originally Posted by percysmith
https://m.dantri.com.vn/kinh-doanh/p...9201918945.htm

Thus, related to the flight VN54 from England to Vietnam on 2/3, up to now, there have been recorded 12 cases, including those sitting in the business seats in the same compartment as NHN patients, there are People sit in the regular compartment.

Of the 12 confirmed cases with the same flight, 10 were foreign nationals, mostly British nationals. The remaining two cases, including NHN patient and Mr. NQT, were both in Truc Bach - Ba Dinh - Hanoi, the two of them sat near the rows of seats, along with the business compartment.

From my read of the Vietnamese text into English (and Chinese):
i) Both J pax (adjacent to 5K) and pax in Y got infected?
ii) Pax in the Y cabin adjacent to the J cabin got infected, along with people in the J cabin?
​​​​
"After touching down in Hanoi on 2 March on Vietnam Airlines flight VN54 where they sat two rows behind the woman, 26, from Hanoi who was carrying the virus the couple visited attractions in the capital before moving on to Sapa in north-west Vietnam. They were contacted on Saturday and told that someone on their flight had tested positive for coronavirus.

He said: Last night [Sunday] we were told that we had the virus, although my wife and I do not have symptoms. I asked how can that be? I was told 80% of people carrying the virus do not have symptoms. So its like catching a ghost if thats correct.

Before we left Lao Cai I had a call from the district foreign office official who said that everywhere we had been we had left people with infection. He emphasised it was not our fault but one of the reasons he wanted us out of the Lao Cai hospital was to accommodate 54 more suspected cases."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...row-to-vietnam
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Old Mar 10, 2020 | 9:01 pm
  #3761  
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Originally Posted by PanAmWT
I was in a uber the driver was a young lady. I asked her if she worries a passenger may be infected but does not have symptom. She replied "the viruses do not scare me, I am young and healthy, and even if I got so unlucky to be one of the very few young people killed by this virus, I am not afraid to die."

I then said: What if that passenger without symptom passes virus to you, you also have mild or no symptom and recover later, but during the interim you can pass the virus to passengers my age?

She immediately said, oh no, I don't want to do that.
Lyft sent this tonight to their customers, at least they are being proactive in seemingly supporting their drivers, which should enhance safety.

"Caring for the Lyft community

The health and safety of Lyft's community is our priority. With recent news around coronavirus (COVID-19), we know you may have questions about how we can all do our part to keep the community healthy. We want to share the actions we're taking to help protect riders and drivers and what you can do to help. What Lyft is doing
  • Closely monitoring the situation and taking action. We're following updates on COVID-19, including guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and local health officials. We'll continue to take actions necessary to help protect the community. Specifically, if we are notified of a rider or driver testing positive for COVID-19, they will be temporarily suspended from using Lyft until they are medically cleared.
  • Helping with prevention. We've partnered with EO Products, makers of Everyone, to distribute more than 200,000 bottles of hand sanitizer and other cleaning supplies to drivers, at no cost to them.
  • Supporting drivers. We will provide funds to drivers should they be diagnosed with COVID-19 or put under individual quarantine by a public health agency. This helps support drivers financially when they can't drive, while also protecting our riders' health.
What you can do
  • Practice good hygiene. Wash your hands frequently. Cover your nose and mouth if you have to sneeze or cough. And use hand sanitizer with at least 60% alcohol content. Please stay home if you are sick.
  • If you need to see a doctor, work with a medical professional to discuss transportation options. Per the CDC, if you have been diagnosed with COVID-19 or suspect you may have it, you should not use ridesharing, public transportation, or taxis.
  • Stay informed. The CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO) are updating their sites with the latest information.
If you have any additional questions, please visit our online resource. Small actions can make a big difference when everyone helps out thanks for doing your part."
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Old Mar 10, 2020 | 10:04 pm
  #3762  
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Originally Posted by notquiteaff
It's in the message you quoted.

"People should be actively considering how to reduce unnecessary human contact for the next year or so."

If it wasn't in there, it would (to me) still be obvious, though. Permanently not (never) see the grandchildren again?!
Sorry, I missed that.
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Old Mar 10, 2020 | 10:34 pm
  #3763  
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If you got a pat down at TSA in SJC recently, this might be of interest...

https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/artic...o-15119444.php

Three Transportation Security Officers at Mineta San Jose International Airport tested positive for COVID-19, TSA officials said.The infected employees are receiving medical care, and all TSA employees they had contact with over the past 14 days are quarantined at home.

"Screening checkpoints remain open and the agency is working with the CDC, as well as the California Department of Public Health and the Santa Clara County Public Health Department to monitor the situation as well as the health and safety of our employees and the traveling public. We will update as more information becomes available," TSA said in a statement.
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Old Mar 10, 2020 | 10:37 pm
  #3764  
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Originally Posted by notquiteaff
Washington State prohibits all meetings/events with 250+ people.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...-and-concerts/
Social distancing is seemingly actually happening in the West right now at increasing speeds.
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Old Mar 11, 2020 | 2:48 am
  #3765  
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Originally Posted by Stgermainparis
Im really thinking that universities, particularly ones with high residential living and communal eating facilities, need to move to a remote learning model. Spring breaks will mean a lot of travel for students and a lot of exposure to a lot of people and places. Returning to dorm life with all that exposure seems very risky.
Vanderbilt in Nashville, TN is considering this issue since it's a large campus with more than 90% of students on campus (I had to get special permission to live off campus):
https://www.tennessean.com/story/new...rs/5011762002/

Originally Posted by Temedar
1) Knowingly infecting someone with AIDS is a felony in certain jurisdictions and people occasionally do go to jail for it
2) Saying that "AIDS is a death sentence" is simply wrong, especially when we're discussing a virus that kills 1-2% of those infected with it in a month
I was unaware of #1 . So there is some case law on the subject--interesting.

For #2 , I would consider AIDS much more of a 'killer' than the current pandemic since the odds are about 100% that AIDS would reduce your life expectancy.

So I'm currently in Alabama with my father. The surrounding states of Georgia and Tennessee seem to have infections in two major metros--Nashville and Atlanta. My thinking is that since these are also the biggest airports in each state, that these cases may have either arrived by air or by some other transport to these metros.

Alabama has 2 major Interstates that directly link with both cities, so if by car, I would expect a case in North Alabama or Central Alabama in the next 3-5 days. If by air, the larger airports are in the central part of the state so the likelihood would be there first.

Now, here's the interesting part. There are many people that literally live in the country where even the nearest walmart would be a 30 minute drive and the nearest neighbor would be over a mile away. Hypothetically, what would their odds be on never getting the virus if they never left their property? (self-quarantined indefinitely)

Last edited by NewbieRunner; Mar 11, 2020 at 7:54 am Reason: Merge consecutive posts by same member
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