apodo77

Houston company claims to have created a vaccine and hopes to have it available by end of year.
Let’s hope they are right.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/john-p...accine-greffex

narvik

China's measures helped control the spread for sure.

It's also possible the rise in temperatures helped and is helping.
Made a quick chart showing temps in Wuhan, China (taking data from weather.com from Dec 1, 2019 to Mar 9, 2020, averaging daily high and daily low, red line is added "by hand"):

Visconti

Projections aren't panic, but there's a wide parabolic range. Thus far, the contrast on this thing's progression between SE Asia and Italy are, to me, stunning. So, it's important to monitor the growth rate here, and be mindful of where we are on those projections, and, more importantly, where they're headed.

Vigorous mitigation is up to each individual based on his/her respective decisions made hopefully with the most up to date and accurate information available. In my view, the information contained in this thread by the Pros have been world class.

stimpy

As posted above, we do know, or have a reasonable estimate, because we can extrapolate the number of COVID cases in the US from the number of COVID deaths in the US. The majority of deaths from COVID symptoms are being tested. Right?

notquiteaff

I generally see multiple news reports both on local and national news every year talking about how flu season as started, how the first cases have been diagnosed in our area, and how flu shots can protect you. There is often also news coverage when our hospital is full during flu season. No daily death counts, though. Those might encourage more people to actually get the flu shot (the US rate is about 45% of the adult population).

nk15

More west coast universities are moving all instruction online, this is unprecedented...

https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/20...elivery-fears/

EDIT: This is actually across the country, dozens of universities are moving to online only, or are on the verge of making the decision in the last 24 hours...Many of the Ivies are going online, and many on the west coast, east coast, Florida, and even Ohio State.

trueblu

I personally believe (no evidence as yet) that COVID-19 transmission will be negatively (ie. reduced) impacted by warming weather...but it would useful to have similar charts for Northern Italy and Southern S. Korea side by side.

However, increasing e.g. doubling rate from 3 days to 7 days (which would be a conceivable knock-on from a weather effect) would be _really_ useful if you have a baseline of 1000 cases nationally, or even 10k cases. If you have 100k cases, then the amount of time it buys you before your hospitals are full is not that great (although anything is better than nothing).

Importantly, I've been plotting log-linear curves of growth rate in China, Hubei/non-Hubei from the outset of this outbreak, and the curves started to slow about 5-7 days after Jan 22 or so...i.e. introduction of aggressive measures. It slowed far less in Hubei than outside Hubei, due to (I believe) the higher baseline numbers, and possibly the way the government was corralling all symptomatic individuals).

tb

yosithezet

From where is the idea that if they don’t have test kits for the living, they do have them for the dead?

FlyBitcoin

Here is how things are going in Singapore.
Very densely populated, very warm, major international airport with connections throughout Asia, and pretty much under control linear spread of infection with a slight upward inflection over the past few days, but these new cases have links to existing cases.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_c...k_in_Singapore

The daily update with details on how cases are linked.
https://www.moh.gov.sg/covid-19

stimpy

By the reports, it seems they do have kits for the dead. Maybe some kind of CDC priority to report deaths accurately? I don't know.

yosithezet

This company has been around since 2007 and has many claims of vaccines for Ebola and anthrax and dengue and MERS and H1N1 but for some reason needed to raise a series A of $150k in 2017. With so many vaccines using their innovative platform shouldn’t they be rolling in the money already? Have they previously brought any of their vaccines to market?

https://www.marketwatch.com/press-re...ain-2013-06-26

https://pitchbook.com/profiles/company/185464-00

https://www.who.int/blueprint/priori...-ncov.pdf?ua=1

yosithezet

Singapore is under control because people have been taking steps to mitigate for about 6 weeks. I have been to the office only twice in the past three weeks and today we, major tech MNC, were divided into two teams who won’t meet face to face until further notice. Each team is allowed in the office on alternate weeks though strongly encouraged to work from home. We haven’t been traveling so as not to bring the virus back from other places. Everyone is vigilant, lots of PSAs on TV and radio. A huge effort in contact tracing.

invisible is also in Singapore and has been tracked by MOH as he’d visited a clinic around the same time as someone who was later diagnosed with the virus.

Loren Pechtel

How is this local incompetence? Yes, they tried to hide it but that doesn't magically make test kits appear. This is incompetence from Washington and the CDC, not local incompetence.

yosithezet

I don’t remember. Could you compare and contrast the two viruses? We’re the mortality and morbidity rates similar? Was it transmitted in similar ways by asymptomatic people? How often did the number of people with the virus double? How did it impact the access to healthcare?

yosithezet

Only some 4400 people in the US had been tested and 570 cases? Now 729 cases.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...umbers/607714/