Italy's numbers were very high today, very worrying...

Check out WHO's tweets posted on the worldometer, alarming...

Well, seems Iran is going Hubei way. Too late...
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51760563
On other front, here is development from Thailand
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN20S1SV
Which essentially shuts down any tourism from these places or any other places/countries which later (inevitably) will be added into above list.

Taking bets how many days it will take to add whole Europe into that list...

This is the most elegant summary of the current situation that I've seen.

I agree, last I checked today, Comcon in Seattle, the LA marathon, & the Indian Wells Masters tennis tournament are still on and scheduled over the next two weeks.

OTOH, the California State Government has taken some good steps.

In addition to mandating testing/evaluation be cost free, as mentioned above, the state has also decided that those �unable to work due to having or being exposed to COVID-19 can file a Disability Insurance claim � and Those unable to work �because they are caring for an ill or quarantined family member with COVID-19 ... can file a Paid Family Leave claim�

There is also financial assistance for employers.

https://edd.ca.gov/about_edd/coronavirus-2019.htm

Regarding ComCon in Seattle - what do you think, how many cases need to be in the state before it gets cancelled?

My estimate- 500. So in about a week.

I found this piece by a UT professor to be really well thought out. It discusses the mobilisation that the US, and I guess other countries actually, could take to brace for and address the unavoidable progress of the virus.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/co...braith-2020-03

Well, do we have any signs of above?

On other hand...
Hope above will work... again...

No. But I like that he was able to link the actions taken to previous examples of how it was actually done using tools/powers the government has access to. In Singapore this is easy to see. In Israel there are signs that this can happen as well. Other countries we will see.

Except exhausting all the alternatives isn't a good approach to take when time matters and you're dealing with exponential growth. I've seen doubling time estimates from anywhere between 3 to 7 days on this virus. On the faster end, assuming we have 225 cases right now, that puts us at 230k cases in 30 days and 235M cases in 60 days. Of course that means that the number of cases would probably exceed the number of doctors in around 33-35 days but that would really be irrelevant because there aren't enough hospital beds for all of the patients by that point. Not that you'd even want all of those people in the hospitals because not every bed has an isolation room and on top of that, you'd have a lot of the medical personnel knocked out for 14 days due to quarantine. Furthermore, hospitals are overwhelmed way before this point, since they're also dealing with all of the folks who are coming in for flu, car accidents, and other things that would typically be happening. On the slower end, you have a bit more time, but you only gain about a month before you are in the same situation, as you are ultimately still dealing with an exponential growth rate. The fact that recovering patients (or dying patients) no longer need care may buy you yet a few more days, but again, it just delays (by a small amount) but does not prevent this doomsday scenario. And note that I think the US is already way past 225 cases (since the CDC has sucked at testing people), in which case, the time to get to 100k cases is much shorter than 30-60 days.

So yeah, don't mess with exponential growth. When you're dealing with exponentials, the proper course of action is to do whatever it takes to stop the growth as early as possible, and then ask questions later. As in, stop screwing around and lock down all cities and stop people from moving around.

Not to mention the 18,000+ people who go to the Staples Center in LA each night and twice on Saturdays. And every other basketball and ice hockey arena, pro and college. People are taking a "life goes on" attitude.

Welcome to new Wuhan... what trueblu was saying here 2 weeks ago that Iran looks like a black hole. Now when some light comes from that black hole, it looks like this:

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TB (or others)- are you aware of any surveys to determine the spread of mildly/asymptomatic and now recovered persons to determine how big the iceberg is below the surface? Is there a post-recovery titer available?

This is what I had meant about not having any control. One can draw out any scenarios and models until the cows come home, but the moment you step outside a controlled environment, things just happen that are uncontrollable and unpredictable.

​​​​Problem is nowhere to put that many people besides their own homes, and how do you get them safely from ship to home, how do you monitor them to prevent me noncompliance, and what to do about international passengers? These cruise ships, once they get into trouble, suck up an incredible amount of resources that at this point, are needed more by communities on land.

I hope that at tomorrow's meeting with cruise industry CEO's, Mike Pence delivers an order for a minimum 2-month shutdown and cancellation of further departures, effective immediately. If he can't do that, he needs to require each cruise line put up $50 million each per ship that remains in service, deposit to cover services rendered when the ship gets into COVID-19 related trouble. It's galling to expect US taxpayers to bail out a pleasure-oriented, non-essential industry.