Originally Posted by
invisible
On other hand...
"Americans will always do the right thing... after exhausting all the alternatives."
Hope above will work... again...
Except exhausting all the alternatives isn't a good approach to take when time matters and you're dealing with exponential growth. I've seen doubling time estimates from anywhere between 3 to 7 days on this virus. On the faster end, assuming we have 225 cases right now, that puts us at 230k cases in 30 days and 235M cases in 60 days. Of course that means that the number of cases would probably exceed the number of doctors in around 33-35 days but that would really be irrelevant because there aren't enough hospital beds for all of the patients by that point. Not that you'd even want all of those people in the hospitals because not every bed has an isolation room and on top of that, you'd have a lot of the medical personnel knocked out for 14 days due to quarantine. Furthermore, hospitals are overwhelmed way before this point, since they're also dealing with all of the folks who are coming in for flu, car accidents, and other things that would typically be happening. On the slower end, you have a bit more time, but you only gain about a month before you are in the same situation, as you are ultimately still dealing with an exponential growth rate. The fact that recovering patients (or dying patients) no longer need care may buy you yet a few more days, but again, it just delays (by a small amount) but does not prevent this doomsday scenario. And note that I think the US is already way past 225 cases (since the CDC has sucked at testing people), in which case, the time to get to 100k cases is much shorter than 30-60 days.
So yeah, don't mess with exponential growth. When you're dealing with exponentials, the proper course of action is to do whatever it takes to stop the growth as early as possible, and then ask questions later. As in, stop screwing around and lock down all cities and stop people from moving around.