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Old Jan 27, 2020, 9:09 am
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Coronavirus / COVID-19 : general fact-based reporting

 
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Old Mar 7, 2020 | 1:35 am
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Originally Posted by yosithezet
trueblu any thoughts?
This cannot be a serious question. It's quite obvious that no, mouth wash does not prevent one from catching the coronavirus any more than kimchi does. One does not need to be an infectious diseases specialist to figure this out.
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Old Mar 7, 2020 | 1:56 am
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Originally Posted by nk15
"The number of infections climbed past 7,300 in Europe on Friday — more than doubling in just three days."
This is an irresponsible use of statistics. Europe is a large area with many separate areas where transmission is separately ongoing. Cherry-picking the number of cases in one continent and then looking at the growth rate of that separately from anywhere else is meaningless. To put it another way, lumping Italy and Lithuania together makes as much sense as lumping Italy and Brazil together.
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Old Mar 7, 2020 | 6:38 am
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Re: Antimicrobials

Way up-thread, there's was a post by trueblu:
Originally Posted by trueblu
I'm using regular soap (and hand sanitzer outdoors)...viruses not being bacteria, I'm not sure the active agents (not sure what it is these days, it used to be triclosan, now banned) will have any additional benefit. Hospital-grade chlorhexidine would be 'better' at killing stuff, but it's murder on your skin integrity: I never use moisturizer except when I'm on the wards...

Handsoap these days (after ban of triclosan for "domestic" use) would likely have n-Alkyl dimethylbenzyl ammonium chloride (also called Benzalkonium Chloride) as its active ingredient.
This is also used in Disinfectant Spray -for instance- which oftentimes has n-Alkyl dimethylbenzyl ammonium chloride and/or n-Alkyl dimethyl ethylbenzyl ammonium chloride in concentrations of around 0.1%, and 30% to 50 % Ethanol.

The EPA has released an 'approved' list of products in the fight against COVID-19 (link is directly to the PDF) called:
EPA’s Registered Antimicrobial Products for Use Against Novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, the Cause of COVID-19
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Old Mar 7, 2020 | 8:29 am
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Iran and Italy are adding several hundred/about a thousand cases per day...

Last edited by nk15; Mar 7, 2020 at 8:55 am
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Old Mar 7, 2020 | 8:58 am
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Originally Posted by nk15
Iran and Italy are adding several hundred/about a thousand cases per day...
Iran has been >1000 new reported cases for at least a couple of days. Italy is getting up there, too (+778 yesterday) :-(
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Old Mar 7, 2020 | 9:25 am
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Originally Posted by helvetic
Singapore in particular makes evident how accurate their counts are through the transparent reports, where you can generally see clear links between cases, where each case leads to aggressive contact tracing, and where most discovered growth comes from such methodical follow-up and not random people showing up at hospitals.
Have to repeat what I wrote about a month ago:

I have first hand experience of being one of contact tracing case in Singapore.

I was called by MoH telling me that I was in the same clinic where a person later diagnosed with COVID19 visited earlier. Once he was diagnosed I was called the next day. Then, every day for next 14 days I got a call checking my health and self-assessment. I was not asked to self-isolate and was told that I am free to leave and come back to Singapore. The importance was to have my phone on all the time so I can answer their calls. If I missed call, I was getting SMS 'MoH is trying to reach you. Please call back at this number'.

Considering that contact tracing identified about 9000 local residents, chances be one of them is 1:500 for the total population.
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Old Mar 7, 2020 | 10:03 am
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Originally Posted by yosithezet
trueblu any thoughts?
Here was the first thing that came up on Google

In Vitro Bactericidal and Virucidal Efficacy of Povidone-Iodine Gargle/Mouthwash Against Respiratory and Oral Tract Pathogens



https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5986684/
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Old Mar 7, 2020 | 10:19 am
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New York State just announced a that they are doing a lot of testing and the number of cases increased about 50% since yesterday. That’s about what was to be expected. And it’s bad.

The governor of NY is going after the CDC for slowing down the state response including testing. He said CDC is a “bottleneck”. Really going after them in fact. Current problem is that CDC won’t allow automated testing and there is a lot of capability for automated testing they can’t take advantage of.

They’re also stopping all outside visitors at senior centers and extended care facilities around a cluster of cases in Westchester County.
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Last edited by GadgetFreak; Mar 7, 2020 at 10:41 am
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Old Mar 7, 2020 | 10:45 am
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Originally Posted by rustykettel
Something I've been noticing in the relatively large numbers of recovered in both Iran and Italy per the Worldometers numbers, particularly compared to South Korea but also other countries. Either they're further into outbreak or assessing recovered differently (clinical vs laboratory?) is what it looks like to me. Any insight?
The facts do not agree with your assertion.
According to Worldometer (12:45 PM EST, 3/7/20), in South Korea the ratio between recovered and deaths is 118/48 = 2.46 whereas in Italy the ratio is 589/233 = 2.53. The difference is not significant.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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Old Mar 7, 2020 | 10:56 am
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The Daily Mail is reporting that the Xinjia Hotel in Quanzhou city, being used as a quarantine facility, has collapsed:
Daily Mail - Rescuers race to save 30 people still trapped in collapsed five-star hotel in China being used to quarantine coronavirus victims (Updated: 12:11 EST, 7 March 2020)
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Old Mar 7, 2020 | 10:57 am
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Originally Posted by rustykettel
Something I've been noticing in the relatively large numbers of recovered in both Iran and Italy per the Worldometers numbers, particularly compared to South Korea but also other countries. Either they're further into outbreak or assessing recovered differently (clinical vs laboratory?) is what it looks like to me. Any insight?
Originally Posted by Dieuwer
The facts do not agree with your assertion.
According to Worldometer (12:45 PM EST, 3/7/20), in South Korea the ratio between recovered and deaths is 118/48 = 2.46 whereas in Italy the ratio is 589/233 = 2.53. The difference is not significant.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
rustykettel also mentioned Iran. Recovered vs deaths is listed at 1669/145 = 11.51. Big difference (if you can trust the numbers.)

Last edited by Kiwi Flyer; Mar 7, 2020 at 11:50 am Reason: fix maths
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Old Mar 7, 2020 | 11:52 am
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Originally Posted by Dieuwer
The facts do not agree with your assertion.
According to Worldometer (12:45 PM EST, 3/7/20), in South Korea the ratio between recovered and deaths is 118/48 = 2.46 whereas in Italy the ratio is 589/233 = 2.53. The difference is not significant.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
I'm not looking at it from outcome ratios (where you're absolutely right about the numbers), but the recovery numbers to the total number of cases and total active cases to guesstimate where it is in the outbreak progression. Take Iran for example, the first official case was a little over two weeks ago yet they already have 3 times as many recovered as Italy. Both countries have far more recovered than South Korea, despite an even earlier start there.
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Old Mar 7, 2020 | 1:23 pm
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Originally Posted by cesco.g
It's my understanding that two of the largest labs (LabCorp and Quest) on top of others will offer testing by Monday, with over 1 million tests being available and more going forward.
Would that not help to avoid such bottleneck?
Yeah, Pence kept hammering the commercial labs message in yesterdays presser. Did he say what the cost would be? Per my wife/doc, a flu test is around $200 if your insurance doesnt pay for it (eg, due to annual deductible) . I know some states have made it an essential health benefit, and Medicare/Medicaid are supposedly paying for it, but there appears to still be a lot of uncertainty. And is there a difference between being forced to get tested (all 3400 Princess pax/crew) and random people worried and walking into their pharmacy/lab?

A couple days old:

https://khn.org/news/fact-check-vice...virus-testing/
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Old Mar 7, 2020 | 1:34 pm
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Originally Posted by 747FC
And, the first case in Hawaii is a GP passenger who returned home:

https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020/...sh-green-says/
The same is now true for the first (and so far only) confirmed case in MN
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Old Mar 7, 2020 | 1:40 pm
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Originally Posted by MSPeconomist
The same is now true for the first (and so far only) confirmed case in MN
Looks like they should urgently test all passengers from the previous Grand Princess voyage. Cases in Placer county, Hawaii, Alameda county and MN have now popped up...
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