Mar 11, 2020, 10:13 am
Last edit by: Ocn Vw 1K
In order to reduce noise in the Coronavirus / Covid-19 : general fact-based reporting thread, and to create a central place to invite any member to ask a basic question about the impact of COVID-19 on travel, your moderators have decided to open this separate "lounge" thread for related discussion that isn't strictly fact-based reporting.
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Please stay healthy,
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Any member who can provide a constructive, helpful answer to a question; or post constructively in reply to a member's point-of-view, is welcome to post.
All FT rules apply, including avoiding personalized, snarky, political, other off-topic, commercial, and repeatedly disruptive content.
Discussion of general economic impacts of Covid-19 belongs in the OMNI forum, not here.
Discussion and critique of political/government actions to aid the economy or which is far more political than related to COVID-19 is for the OMNI/PR forum, not here.
This is a protocol for posting adopted by the forum Moderator team:Please follow this protocol, based on FlyerTalk Rules and long-standing FlyerTalk best practices. Doing so will help keep the thread open, and allow our moderator team to aid members, rather than having to resort to discipline.
Constructive, respectful posts, views, opinions, questions, and replies, related to the topic are welcome. Avoid commenting on members personally, or posting off-topic or political messages.
While respectful disagreement of a posted view is allowed, dont call-out posters to prove their points. FlyerTalk has never required discussion standards at the level of a Ph.D. dissertation defense, or a trial court witness cross-examination.
After a reasonable exchange of views on a point, please yield the floor so that others may bring up different topics, questions or points.
Especially important in this time of pandemic, when normal life and travel have been upended: please take regular breaks from the thread.
Please stay healthy,
your FT Coronavirus and Travel Moderator Team.
COVID-19: Lounge thread for thoughts, concerns and questions
Mar 7, 2020 | 5:53 am
#121
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Why are mortality rates in Iran and Italy similar to China and significantly higher than most other countries? Is it because they are still way undercounting the cases similar to what the US is doing? Hasn't Italy been testing a lot of people?
Mar 7, 2020 | 5:57 am
#122
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Look at HK, SG, TW, Thailand all of which avoided massive outbreaks thanks to placing bans on China (a little late but still early enough to be mostly effective in HK). You'd see a LOT more cases in those countries were it not for those restrictions, like Korea or Japan.
This would be a welcoming reason, as it would mean relief once temps rise in all the hot spots!
It appears to be slowing down in Wuhan....and it's getting warmer there these days...
Mar 7, 2020 | 6:05 am
#123
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Spain, France, Germany, Britain are all about a week, perhaps 2 weeks behind Italy, but the figures are beginning to co-relate with those of Italy not so long ago.
What has really varied from country to country is the initial “fuse lighting” period, when the virus changes from being an import to a community transmitted infection. Once each country has about 30/40 recorded incidences of infection the pattern becomes similar.
Deaths have been a way for countries who haven’t been able to find many positive cases to identify potential clusters. So some infection figures are being added retroactively to those of deaths.
(Have no professional knowledge on this - am just paying very close attention)
Mar 7, 2020 | 6:24 am
#124
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I’m bringing it up because it’s a counterpoint. They are not blocking anyone, and their count is 1.
The counts are the number of people who have a) been tested and b) tested positive. Cambodia undoubtedly has many infected people, but since (a) never happens, they’re not counted. However, it’s not correct to say that the count is inaccurate. The count is of cases, and without a test you don’t have a case.
How much door-to-door testing do you think they’re doing in HK? anecdotally, from what I and friends have seen, I’d say close to none. Community spread is not necessarily easily detected in a virus that is mostly benign in terms of symptoms. Therefore, number of cases may well be significantly less than number of infections. That doesn’t make the number inaccurate. It’s accurately reporting cases.
The counts are the number of people who have a) been tested and b) tested positive. Cambodia undoubtedly has many infected people, but since (a) never happens, they’re not counted. However, it’s not correct to say that the count is inaccurate. The count is of cases, and without a test you don’t have a case.
How much door-to-door testing do you think they’re doing in HK? anecdotally, from what I and friends have seen, I’d say close to none. Community spread is not necessarily easily detected in a virus that is mostly benign in terms of symptoms. Therefore, number of cases may well be significantly less than number of infections. That doesn’t make the number inaccurate. It’s accurately reporting cases.
For the record, I live in HK, and spend a significant amount of my time in SG.
I can tell you from personal experience that these two places are far more thorough when it comes to reporting, testing, contact tracing, and in general being methodical about their approaches to managing the crisis. Singapore in particular makes evident how accurate their counts are through the transparent reports, where you can generally see clear links between cases, where each case leads to aggressive contact tracing, and where most discovered growth comes from such methodical follow-up and not random people showing up at hospitals.
You can't walk into many buildings without having your temperature taken, without leaving contact information in case they need to trace you, or without filling a declaration of travel, symptoms, etc.
That a random third world country reports a single case has absolutely nothing to do with that.
If you have any evidence that they're making up all their transparent reporting or that it's somehow invalid — please bring it to the table. Don't bring random third world countries with little infrastructure and a completely different situations into it.
Mar 7, 2020 | 6:26 am
#125
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Except they have been effective for many countries. Look at HK, SG, TW, Thailand all of which avoided massive outbreaks thanks to placing bans on China (a little late but still early enough to be mostly effective in HK). You'd see a LOT more cases in those countries were it not for those restrictions, like Korea or Japan.
Mar 7, 2020 | 6:29 am
#126
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Mar 7, 2020 | 6:29 am
#127
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Well, theyll have to do the tests in order for their numbers to increase. My guess is theres some temperature effect there
Last edited by bobbytables; Mar 7, 2020 at 6:40 am
Mar 7, 2020 | 6:31 am
#128
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Mar 7, 2020 | 6:38 am
#129
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Your counterpoint is nonsensical. It doesn't counter anything. The fact that Cambodia reports 1 case only says absolutely nothing about TW, SG, or HK.
For the record, I live in HK, and spend a significant amount of my time in SG.
I can tell you from personal experience that these two places are far more thorough when it comes to reporting, testing, contact tracing, and in general being methodical about their approaches to managing the crisis. Singapore in particular makes evident how accurate their counts are through the transparent reports, where you can generally see clear links between cases, where each case leads to aggressive contact tracing, and where most discovered growth comes from such methodical follow-up and not random people showing up at hospitals.
You can't walk into many buildings without having your temperature taken, without leaving contact information in case they need to trace you, or without filling a declaration of travel, symptoms, etc.
That a random third world country reports a single case has absolutely nothing to do with that.
If you have any evidence that they're making up all their transparent reporting or that it's somehow invalid please bring it to the table. Don't bring random third world countries with little infrastructure and a completely different situations into it.
For the record, I live in HK, and spend a significant amount of my time in SG.
I can tell you from personal experience that these two places are far more thorough when it comes to reporting, testing, contact tracing, and in general being methodical about their approaches to managing the crisis. Singapore in particular makes evident how accurate their counts are through the transparent reports, where you can generally see clear links between cases, where each case leads to aggressive contact tracing, and where most discovered growth comes from such methodical follow-up and not random people showing up at hospitals.
You can't walk into many buildings without having your temperature taken, without leaving contact information in case they need to trace you, or without filling a declaration of travel, symptoms, etc.
That a random third world country reports a single case has absolutely nothing to do with that.
If you have any evidence that they're making up all their transparent reporting or that it's somehow invalid please bring it to the table. Don't bring random third world countries with little infrastructure and a completely different situations into it.
With some estimates of minor/asymptomatic infection up around 80% of infected people it should be quite easy to understand how the case count can have little to do with the number of infected people, with the ratio between those numbers varying between countries not based on transparency but simply based on how much testing theyre doing, making comparing case counts between countries rather a pointless exercise.
for what its worth I also live in HK and am in SG most weeks, though Im not sure why you brought that up?
Mar 7, 2020 | 7:01 am
#130
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I guess I could do it myself, with all the data at hand. Just looking at the data in a rudimentary fashion, it looks encouraging (for the northern Hemisphere....maybe not as positive for New Zealand and parts of Australia...)
Hong Kong's mean temps are MUCH higher than the hotspots of Korea, northern Italy, Qom (Iran), and others.
(Qom, for instance, hovered around 0C at night up until only few weeks ago...)
Spain might be the only anomaly in the top 12 affected countries where the climate isn't quite as cold as others, but Madrid, La Rioja and lava/Araba (cities/regions with many/most of the cases in Spain) it also dropped to around 0C at night back in Jan and Feb.)
If I have some time over the weekend I could analyze this more in depth...
Last edited by narvik; Mar 7, 2020 at 7:27 am
Mar 7, 2020 | 7:18 am
#131
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I think youre missing my point completely. Cambodia is a useful example of how the number of cases can bear no relation at all to the likely number of infected people, simply because not many tests are being done. That has nothing at all to do with transparency. There are undoubtedly plenty of people in HK who have the virus (or previously had it) and were never counted, not because of any lack of transparency but simply because they never became a case by seeking medical assistance.
With some estimates of minor/asymptomatic infection up around 80% of infected people it should be quite easy to understand how the case count can have little to do with the number of infected people, with the ratio between those numbers varying between countries not based on transparency but simply based on how much testing theyre doing, making comparing case counts between countries rather a pointless exercise.
for what its worth I also live in HK and am in SG most weeks, though Im not sure why you brought that up?
With some estimates of minor/asymptomatic infection up around 80% of infected people it should be quite easy to understand how the case count can have little to do with the number of infected people, with the ratio between those numbers varying between countries not based on transparency but simply based on how much testing theyre doing, making comparing case counts between countries rather a pointless exercise.
for what its worth I also live in HK and am in SG most weeks, though Im not sure why you brought that up?
Also you'll notice in the reports from HK and SG that plenty of reported cases are mild too.
Mar 7, 2020 | 7:19 am
#132
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BTW - La Rioja is a region and Haro is the small town within it with the funeral related cases. Have no idea where/what Araba is - sorry, for me it’s lava, which is where Vitoria (or Vitoria-Gasteiz) is and a hospital that took lots of the Haro in La Rioja cases.
Last edited by LapLap; Mar 7, 2020 at 7:28 am Reason: Change back Hora to Haro
Mar 7, 2020 | 7:26 am
#133
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lava then, not Araba.
My point still stands though. I ran out of time to investigate this further right now, but an initial look at this is quite striking.
Mar 7, 2020 | 7:37 am
#134
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The local geography is hard to keep on top of up there. Hora is right on the border of La Rioja and the Basque Country and then there’s Castile and Len which is an enclave region within the Basque Country situated just nearby. One also needs to remember that lava is where the Vitoria Hospital is and a province within the Basque Country AND it has it’s own Basque spelling (Araba).
Mar 7, 2020 | 7:56 am
#135
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Keep tuned to Hawaiis spread and you can test your hypothesis.