STS-134

Any reason you think nationality has an impact on how safe it is to be in one place or another or to travel somewhere else? Going on a plane is a concern of course, but once you get out, I would think you're safer just statistically (looking at how many people have it in China vs elsewhere). But if I had to go on a flight out of China right now, I'd want to wear a BSL-4 suit on that flight if I had one. Not that it would actually help unless I could connect it to the bleed air system and maintain positive pressure in it.

nk15

You also need to highlight the likely very low risk part, and the noncommittal language. Nobody guarantees you with certainty, because they don't know for sure. There are two non committal words, "likely", and "very low". They can't even commit to the very low risk estimate, lol, they don't want to take the risk, and modify it with 'likely".

wco81

So one guy infected 20 so far and counting?

wrp96

At least 20 people. It’s 20 people out of 100 and they are waiting on tests back for another 173. All passengers are quarantined to their rooms for at least the next 14 days.

889

"Mother-in-law, now retired, used to hold a position in the Provincial government and for some reason needs permission every time she wants to travel abroad. Not sure what that's about,"

These restrictions date back to Mao's time, and seem to apply to a lot of people in the public sector who have any knowledge which isn't public. Yes, they continue to apply after retirement. And yes, everyone seems to know about them.

MSPeconomist

Nationality could affect their admissibility to various countries, with or without a quarantine period, and also permitted routings. In this case, it looks like a nonstop flight is being considered, but if that flight is cancelled in the future, it could be more difficult for them to leave their current location in mainland China.

39steps

[also posted in the country-specific HK & Macau forum]

Given the latest news (5th Feb 2019) that Hong Kong is from the 8th mandatory quarantining travelers from the mainland, does anyone know or have thoughts on being able to transit out of mainland China via HKG airport on a connecting flight (spending time only in the transit zone), without quarantine?

Need this information to make optimal decisions on getting back to home country with planned flights, where I'd much prefer to be quarantined.

* Coronavirus news at HKG
(URL restricted since new member)

** HK govt press release, 5th Feb
(URL restricted since new member)

chipmaster

China is a country and a culture where face and outward appearance of their stature and superiority of system is more than just important. They have for the past decade muscled their way to the front and continue to have huge aspirations to forward that image.

You really think the lock down of 60Million, and the draconian measures they implemented are to something on the line of the common flu? If you aren't from China, nor lived with them, or have some cultural connection to try and explain it to someone is like trying to explain to a European the American fascination with Football, or an American the ROW with the real football, LOL.

Yeah I hope they really are just over-reacting, makes perfect sense, let's tank our country and economy and possible bring the while world for us for this little flu thing.

jiejie

Sorry for lack of clarity. I didn't intend for it to be a nationality question--what I was trying to ascertain was whether the in-laws were at home in Shenyang or visitors. The implication that I got in that poster's question was that the in-laws were resident (likely Chinese). Reasons for my answer to stay put:
1) Home base vs visitor is different: when you are in your home and regular city of residence, you have familiarity and a support system in case things go pear-shaped. Things like friends, knowing the shops and pharmacies, delivery setups, clinics, streets and transport options, etc.
2) At one's home base city, it's easier to control your contact with others. Can't do that when traveling, and the unvetted contacts you encounter each represent a potential point of infection. Right now, the 12th confirmed case in the USA is someone who returned to Wisconsin after visiting Beijing (unless other information on his China travels has not yet been ascertained or released). The process of traveling from Shenyang to Canada will of necessity involve dozens if not a hundred or more contacts (= those passing within 2 meters)....and all the contacts of those contacts.
3) So far, Shenyang/Liaoning has not been seriously affected by the coronavirus, and while we can never trust Chinese numbers, the relatively smaller confirmed infection numbers from Shenyang may indicate that have a shot at getting on top and staying on top of the situation before it ever gets to the serious point of city-wide quarantine.

Understand where I am coming from. I had to go through the same thought process and make this decision during SARS while living in Beijing, a situation which had both similarities and differences to this nCOV, and came down on the side of staying put where I had some measure of control. I won't deny though, that there were disruptions like cessation of public gatherings, a reliance of getting around on my bicycle and foot vs public transport, and periods of profound boredom where normal routines were disrupted and business activities were difficult to carry out. Ultimately, that poster and his in-laws will have to weigh their personal situation (and their current health status, which wasn't mentioned), and decide.

I do not know if the Chinese permission requirement on the mother-in-law will be a major issue because of whatever her former position was, but that certainly adds a complication, since in these troubled times, how long permission process will take may not be predictable. Particularly if she is a current or former Party member. The current government may be very sensitive over any appearance of officials--even former ones--taking advantage of their relationships to foreigners and cutting and running. Might be difficult to time tickets with receipt of permission to leave.

chipmaster

And how about the other couple thousand? Oh yeah they don't have any symptoms yet, I guess we see in 14 days!

anacapamalibu

likely =>50%

Visconti

We'll see, and it'll be interesting to see the data over the next several weeks.

bobbytables

The statement that one guy infected at least 20 people is not known to be true at this point. Those people could have gotten infected before boarding the cruise.

nk15

Some interesting data for the survivability of SARS on surfaces from this 2011 article: (Bolding is mine)

https://www.hindawi.com/journals/av/2011/734690/

The Effects of Temperature and Relative Humidity on the Viability of the SARS Coronavirus
K. H. Chan,1 J. S. Malik Peiris,1 S. Y. Lam,1 L. L. M. Poon,1 K. Y. Yuen,1 and W. H. Seto1

1Department of Microbiology, The University of Hong Kong, Queen Mary Hospital, Pokfulam, Hong Kong

Abstract

The main route of transmission of SARS CoV infection is presumed to be respiratory droplets. However the virus is also detectable in other body fluids and excreta. The stability of the virus at different temperatures and relative humidity on smooth surfaces were studied. The dried virus on smooth surfaces retained its viability for over 5 days at temperatures of 22–25°C and relative humidity of 40–50%, that is, typical air-conditioned environments. However, virus viability was rapidly lost (>3 log10) at higher temperatures and higher relative humidity (e.g., 38°C, and relative humidity of >95%). The better stability of SARS coronavirus at low temperature and low humidity environment may facilitate its transmission in community in subtropical area (such as Hong Kong) during the spring and in air-conditioned environments. It may also explain why some Asian countries in tropical area (such as Malaysia, Indonesia or Thailand) with high temperature and high relative humidity environment did not have major community outbreaks of SARS.

……………………………………………………………….
(Excerpts from the discussion section):

The human coronavirus associated with the common cold was reported to remain viable only for 3 hours on environmental surfaces after drying, although it remains viable for many days in liquid suspension [13]. Parainfluenza and RSV viruses were viable after drying on surfaces for 2 and 6 hours, respectively [20, 22……………………..

In the present study, we have demonstrated that SARS CoV can survive at least two weeks after drying at temperature and humidity conditions found in an air-conditioned environment. The virus is stable for 3 weeks at room temperature in a liquid environment but it is easily killed by heat at 56°C for 15 minutes [9]…………………………

In this study, we showed that high temperature at high relative humidity has a synergistic effect on inactivation of SARS CoV viability while lower temperatures and low humidity support prolonged survival of virus on contaminated surfaces. The environmental conditions of countries such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand are thus not conducive to the prolonged survival of the virus. In countries such as Singapore and Hong Kong where there is a intensive use of air-conditioning, transmission largely occurred in well-air-conditioned environments such as hospitals or hotels. Further, a separate study has shown that during the epidemic, the risk of increased daily incidence of SARS was 18.18-fold higher in days with a lower air temperature than in days with a higher temperature in Hong Kong [24] and other regions [15–17]. Taken together, these observations may explain why some Asian countries in tropical area (with high temperature at high relative humidity) such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand did not have nosocomial outbreaks of SARS (Tables 1 and 2(a)–2(c)). It may also explain why Singapore, which is also in tropical area (Table 2(d)), had most of its SARS outbreaks in hospitals (air-conditioned environment). Interestingly, during the outbreak of SARS in Guangzhou, clinicians kept the windows of patient rooms open and well ventilated and these may well have reduced virus survival and this reduced nosocomial transmission. SARS CoV can retain its infectivity up to 2 weeks at low temperature and low humidity environment, which might facilitate the virus transmission in community as in Hong Kong which locates in subtropical area....

.........……...….........….........………...………...………. ..……….........…..

Abstract from another article:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...95670115003679

Journal of Hospital Infection Volume 92, Issue 3, March 2016, Pages 235-250

Review

Transmission of SARS and MERS coronaviruses and influenza virus in healthcare settings: the possible role of dry surface contamination

lJ.A.OtteraC.DonskeybS.YezlicS.DouthwaitedS.D.GoldenbergdD.J.Weber

Summary
Viruses with pandemic potential including H1N1, H5N1, and H5N7 influenza viruses, and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)/Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) coronaviruses (CoV) have emerged in recent years. SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, and influenza virus can survive on surfaces for extended periods, sometimes up to months. Factors influencing the survival of these viruses on surfaces include: strain variation, titre, surface type, suspending medium, mode of deposition, temperature and relative humidity, and the method used to determine the viability of the virus. Environmental sampling has identified contamination in field-settings with SARS-CoV and influenza virus, although the frequent use of molecular detection methods may not necessarily represent the presence of viable virus. The importance of indirect contact transmission (involving contamination of inanimate surfaces) is uncertain compared with other transmission routes, principally direct contact transmission (independent of surface contamination), droplet, and airborne routes. However, influenza virus and SARS-CoV may be shed into the environment and be transferred from environmental surfaces to hands of patients and healthcare providers. Emerging data suggest that MERS-CoV also shares these properties. Once contaminated from the environment, hands can then initiate self-inoculation of mucous membranes of the nose, eyes or mouth. Mathematical and animal models, and intervention studies suggest that contact transmission is the most important route in some scenarios. Infection prevention and control implications include the need for hand hygiene and personal protective equipment to minimize self-contamination and to protect against inoculation of mucosal surfaces and the respiratory tract, and enhanced surface cleaning and disinfection in healthcare settings.

wrp96

The cruise started January 20th. With a 14 day incubation period, and only just now being diagnosed with the virus, most likely it was this guy. But you are right we don’t absolutely know for certain so can’t draw conclusions with certainty.