freed0m

how to tell whether the "natural" immunity lasted 12 months or the "naturally immued" has been re-infected?

bambinomartino

This kind of addresses the question in the post above (although it wasn't meant to).

I wish someone would explain to me what is happening in various states in India. The first three states had the lowest seropositivity rates in late July (in the 45-50% range).



The two below, among the highest with well over 70%. They also seem representative of much of the rest of the country with similarly high seropositivity rates:


And they are testing. Not UK levels, buy Uttar Pradesh does something like 200-300k daily, or about 0.1% of the population, with a positivity rate of less than 0.01%. Past underreporting and the awful human toll to get to this point aside, don't these graphs support the natural immunity proponents' claims?

India's huge wave was only a few months ago but I suspect a large percentage of those who had covid contracted it earlier in the pandemic, quite possibly more than a year ago. Maybe it got boosted due to exposure this summer. But if their natural immunity waned as quickly as that of vaccines, surely we wouldn't be seeing a perfectly flat line for the past 4 - FOUR! - months. Herd immunity?

hurnik

How so?
PCR tests (unless you were asymptomatic and never got tested), I'd think enough people have to be tested weekly/whatever for work reasons, etc. I think globally it would be possible (although not necessarily easy). Obviously before vaccines, we know that there were some cases of reinfection (although I believe the news reports at the time were that it was a rare event). So obviously we know how to quantify that (else how would they know if you got it again?)

And same could be said for vaccinated people. Did they get infected after? (Yes, we know this, but again, some would probably be asymptomatic and caught due to mandatory testing, or symptomatic so they'd get a test).

JNelson113

Isn't Uttar Pradesh the state that is distributing Ivermectin and zinc?

exp

There's no reason antibodies in people with naturally immune people would last longer than antibodies in vaccinated people. The blood stream isn't going to keep antibodies around forever.

Maybe people who have severe covid had a stronger immune response so their bodies generated more antibodies, just like Moderna had triple the dose of Pfizer, resulting in more antibodies.

But Moderna response will also wane, just later than Pfizer and naturally immune people will also see their antibodies fade.

Bigger problem is that antibody response in unvaccinated people is highly variable and non-specific.

exp

Anti-vaccine contingent are increasingly touting the superior benefits of natural immunity over vaccine-induced immunity. The often touted claim is something like "I had covid, which gives me better immunity than vaccines."

They cite some studies which seem to support their claim. But the studies are mixed at best.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2021...covid-19-shot/


What is clear is that vaccinated people have higher levels of spike-specific antibodies while people with natural immunity may have higher proportion of non-specific antibodies.

But even a stronger argument for vaccination, it's clear that even one shot of a vaccine produces higher antibody response in even previously-infected people.

GUWonder

It’s the state in India where the ruling party members — and even its Chief Minister — were encouraging the bizarre concept that cow dung and cow urine can ward off this coronavirus.

bambinomartino

Har har.

Please explain the 0.00x% positivity rate 4 months straight, with testing on par with many Western countries.

I don't know enough about ivermectin, other than it's not just "horse medicine", and that some clinicians see a benefit. If it was in fact used widely in UP, within the corresponding time frame, it is at least a possible explanation. As is the natural immunity theory.

Vaccination rates there are still much lower than those in Europe or North America. Covid restrictions were largely lifted in early June.

What? Is? It?

exp

Do you have a link that India is testing "on par with many Western countries?"

Because it was widely reported that they under tested and underreported when they had their spring surge.

bambinomartino

I acknowledged in my previous post that there had been underreporting, especially early in the pandemic. I think they learned the hard way that they couldn't ignore the disease.

Uttar Pradesh in August was averaging 150k to 200k tests per day.
By mid-September, 250k - 300k.

Population roughly 200 million. That's as many as 150 per 100,000 population tests per day. Here in Alberta, at the height of our 4th wave now, we are doing between 200 and 300 per 100k. We were doing fewer than 100/100k in July when cases were low (similar to Sweden - 10k tests per day, the US - 500k between waves). Not too shabby for a poor country, and the very definition of "on par with".

Other than "them is lyin'", I'll ask you as well: what explanation for the miniscule positivity rate, sustained for 4 months, would you offer?

GadgetFreak

As I look at the numbers New York State did 229,000 tests today in a population of about 40 million. So I’m not so sure that is a lot of tests in India. Without knowing who specifically is tested or anything else about the testing it seems to probably not matter much.

Smiley90

I wouldn't put up Alberta as a "good" example for anything here.... So one probably shouldn't compare themselves to that.

bambinomartino

if you have something of substance to add please do. Potshots at Alberta - even if deserved - may be fun but irrelevant.

Incidentally, British Columbia has done fewer than 4 million tests throughout the pandemic. Alberta - 5.6 million. With a smaller population.

bambinomartino

New York State was doing 50-60k test daily this and last summer between the various waves. 150 per 100k population. They are currently registering what, 3% positivity rate the past month? Without knowing who specifically is being tested and all that.

So chalk you up to those darn Indians lying as well? But other Indians like in Kerala aren't. Okey dokey.

GadgetFreak

I didn’t accuse them of lying. I said that isn’t a lot of tests and it probably doesn’t matter anyway because we don’t know why the numbers are that low. And New York thos are the numbers today. Last summer doesn’t matter at all since much of last year was testing limited.