Jan 27, 2020, 9:09 am
Last edit by: username
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Coronavirus / COVID-19 : general fact-based reporting
Feb 12, 2020, 12:00 pm
#1501
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How long does it now take in the USA to get test results back on this virus? I thought they had sped up the process. Weird situation at the University of Delaware which has a lot of Chinese students and an odd calendar where the spring semester just started this week. This was basically "perfect timing" to either rush back to school before the USA banned entry or miss the semester. Hundreds got stuck in China, but many made it back. Unsurprisingly, there are now at least a couple of returning Chinese students in Delaware with flu-like symptoms who are causing concerns. Unless they're from Wuhan (no one will publicly say -- everyone is worried about "stigma"), it's a good bet that they'll eventually test negative. But they say the results "will take days." What? If you're trying to prevent a pandemic, at a university no less, shouldn't you be able to get the results in hours and then take appropriate measures if neccssary? This process is being run about as efficiently as the TSA runs security.
https://www.delawareonline.com/story...an/4728016002/
https://www.delawareonline.com/story...an/4728016002/
IIRC Princeton spring semester classes start late too, hence the reports that some students there were in quarantine on campus.
The Wisconsin case that went to the Univ of Wisconsin at Madison hospital and tested positive also could easily have been a student, postdoc, etc. from China, given the timing and apparent connection to the university.
It's probably good that many USA universities start classes in early January.
OTOH, USA students who had been planning to study abroad in China (and perhaps some other impacted countries, although I suspect that those planning to go to Hong Kong had already changed their plans) are in tough situations in that if the semester has started, it's difficult to add classes late. Failure to graduate on time is a likely consequence for many.
Feb 12, 2020, 1:27 pm
#1502
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Good to see that the US started granting emergency visas to spouses of US citizens trying to evacuate:
Hopefully that guy who stayed behind when the first evacuation flight left because his wife didn't have a US visa was able to get out.
Hopefully that guy who stayed behind when the first evacuation flight left because his wife didn't have a US visa was able to get out.
Feb 12, 2020, 3:08 pm
#1503
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https://www.miamiherald.com/news/hea...240223446.html
Feb 12, 2020, 4:35 pm
#1504
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The Hubei government had been posting the daily updates like clockwork at around 06:00 Beijing time. The numbers of new infections looked encouraging over the past day or so. There was a marked decrease in the daily numbers.
It's 07:35 as of this writing, and nothing yet. I hope that's not a bad sign.
It's 07:35 as of this writing, and nothing yet. I hope that's not a bad sign.
Feb 12, 2020, 5:01 pm
#1505
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This is not good ... The Tencent app has just updated - only numbers from Hubei so fsr - and showing 14887 (!) new confirmed cases (889 recovered snd 245 deaths).
Feb 12, 2020, 5:03 pm
#1506
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Holy Mother of God.
14,840 new cases in Hubei, "(including 13,332 clinically diagnosed cases)" (10 times yesterday's).
242 new deaths (more than twice the highest daily number so far).
Edit: GinFizz beat me to it.
It does appear that there was some methodological change to the classification of the cases, although the google translation does not make it clear. I certainly hope it's just a matter of 12 or 13 thousand cases being newly classified as positive. That would be in line with the earlier reports that in Wuhan they only test around 6,000 people per day.
http://wjw.hubei.gov.cn/fbjd/dtyw/20..._2025581.shtml
So, what's the difference between the "13,332 clinically diagnosed cases" and the other 1,500-odd cases from today that bring the total to 14,840? If the 1,500 corresponds to the 2,000 to 3,000/per day previously reported, and the 13,332 is just old suspected cases that are suddenly deemed positive, then okay, I mean we all knew there was underreporting...
Smart people, please explain to this country boy.
14,840 new cases in Hubei, "(including 13,332 clinically diagnosed cases)" (10 times yesterday's).
242 new deaths (more than twice the highest daily number so far).
Edit: GinFizz beat me to it.
It does appear that there was some methodological change to the classification of the cases, although the google translation does not make it clear. I certainly hope it's just a matter of 12 or 13 thousand cases being newly classified as positive. That would be in line with the earlier reports that in Wuhan they only test around 6,000 people per day.
With the deepening of understanding of new coronavirus pneumonia and the accumulation of experience in diagnosis and treatment, in view of the characteristics of the epidemic in Hubei Province, the General Office of the National Health and Health Commission and the Office of the State Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine issued the "Diagnosis and Treatment Plan for New Coronavirus Infected Pneumonia (Trial (Version) "adds" clinical diagnosis "to the case diagnosis classification in Hubei Province, so that patients can receive standardized treatment according to confirmed cases as early as possible to further improve the success rate of treatment. According to the plan, Hubei Province has recently conducted investigations on suspected cases and revised the diagnosis results, and newly diagnosed patients were diagnosed according to the new diagnosis classification. In order to be consistent with the classification of case diagnosis issued by other provinces across the country, starting today, Hubei Province will include the number of clinically diagnosed cases into the number of confirmed cases for publication.
So, what's the difference between the "13,332 clinically diagnosed cases" and the other 1,500-odd cases from today that bring the total to 14,840? If the 1,500 corresponds to the 2,000 to 3,000/per day previously reported, and the 13,332 is just old suspected cases that are suddenly deemed positive, then okay, I mean we all knew there was underreporting...
Smart people, please explain to this country boy.
Last edited by bambinomartino; Feb 12, 2020 at 5:18 pm
Feb 12, 2020, 5:27 pm
#1507
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This may help explain as well:
Previous day's official bulletin:
And today's:
Did the 10,567 existing clinically diagnosed cases all of a sudden migrate to the infected column?
Previous day's official bulletin:
At present , 26,121 patients are still being treated in the hospital , of which 5724 are critically ill and 1,517 are critically ill. They are all receiving isolation treatment at designated medical institutions. There were 11,295 suspected cases, 6,756 were excluded on the day; 4890 new clinically diagnosed cases were added, and 10,567 existing clinically diagnosed cases; 15514 suspected and clinically diagnosed cases were concentratedly isolated. A total of 152,251 close contacts have been tracked, and 77,195 people are still undergoing medical observation.
At present , 33,693 patients are still being treated in the hospital , of which 5647 are critically ill and 1437 are critically ill. They are all receiving isolation treatment at designated medical institutions. There were 9028 suspected cases, 3317 were excluded that day, and 6,126 were concentrated and isolated. A total of 158,377 close contacts were tracked, and 77,308 people were still under medical observation.
Feb 12, 2020, 5:31 pm
#1508
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https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Feb 12, 2020, 5:39 pm
#1509
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"The passengers include 650 from the US, 271 from Canada, 127 from the UK and 91 from the Netherlands, with smaller numbers of people from Australia, Germany, China and other countries." https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...onavirus-fears
Pretty obvious to me who needs to quarantine the ship.
Pretty obvious to me who needs to quarantine the ship.
Feb 12, 2020, 5:49 pm
#1510
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But according to an Apple Daily journalist, a few days ago China narrowed the definition of "confirmed case." Those who test positive but have no symptoms are no longer considered a "confirmed case." That is "confirmed case" now = positive test + symptoms.
twitter.com/lwcalex/status/1226840055869632512
twitter.com/lwcalex/status/1226840055869632512
Last edited by 889; Feb 12, 2020 at 5:55 pm
Feb 12, 2020, 5:53 pm
#1511
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Yes, I saw that headline somewhere. Hopefully, the Cambodians don't renege! Have they been doing any testing on that ship? I understand that there have so far been no coronavirus cases. Still, after what happened with the Diamond Princess, it's obviously better safe than sorry before dispatching these folks throughout the world via commercial aviation. I would hope everyone is going to at least get a temperature check/quick medical screen.
Feb 12, 2020, 5:57 pm
#1512
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This is the guidance that the Chicago Department of Public Health provides to all the local Universities:
https://www.chicago.gov/content/dam/...02.06.2020.pdf
A few of the highlights:
"Any student, faculty member or other university staff returning from mainland China on or after February 3, 2020 should not attend school or work for 14 days after the return date.
Absences for this purpose should be excused and alternate arrangements should be made for teleworking and online school assignments."
"Instruct all students, faculty and staff who have traveled to China in the past 14 days and are experiencing symptoms to immediately contact university health services or another contact as designated by the university."
"At this time, there is NO need to cancel school or social events. However, as with any respiratory virus, students, faculty members, and other university staff should stay home and avoid events when they are ill. "
"..... As with any respiratory virus,...….Stay home when you are sick....."
https://www.chicago.gov/content/dam/...02.06.2020.pdf
A few of the highlights:
"Any student, faculty member or other university staff returning from mainland China on or after February 3, 2020 should not attend school or work for 14 days after the return date.
Absences for this purpose should be excused and alternate arrangements should be made for teleworking and online school assignments."
"Instruct all students, faculty and staff who have traveled to China in the past 14 days and are experiencing symptoms to immediately contact university health services or another contact as designated by the university."
"At this time, there is NO need to cancel school or social events. However, as with any respiratory virus, students, faculty members, and other university staff should stay home and avoid events when they are ill. "
"..... As with any respiratory virus,...….Stay home when you are sick....."
Last edited by nk15; Feb 12, 2020 at 7:57 pm
Feb 12, 2020, 5:58 pm
#1513
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https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6
Whoa!
In other news, World Mobile Congress in Barcelona has been canceled. Was planned for Feb 24-27.
https://www.theverge.com/2020/2/12/2...gsma-statement
Feb 12, 2020, 6:04 pm
#1514
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But according to an Apple Daily journalist, a few days ago China narrowed the definition of "confirmed case." Those who test positive but have no symptoms are no longer considered a "confirmed case." That is "confirmed case" now = positive test + symptoms.
twitter.com/lwcalex/status/1226840055869632512
twitter.com/lwcalex/status/1226840055869632512
I guess that if numbers keep going up, and if the authorities still want to keep track of cases, at some point adding clinical diagnosis becomes a necessity, as there will always be a limit to the testing capability. The new centre in Wuhan can test 10000 samples a day - but that becomes redundant within a week if there are 10000 positives with a doubling time of 3-4 days (not saying that those are the numbers - just used here to illustrate my point).
Feb 12, 2020, 6:04 pm
#1515
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NYT article discussing the lack of communication by the Japanese government regarding the quarantined cruise ship, and the issues and difficulty with the testing....
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...cid=spartandhp
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...cid=spartandhp