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Old Jan 27, 2020, 9:09 am
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Coronavirus / COVID-19 : general fact-based reporting

 
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Old Mar 22, 2020 | 11:24 pm
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Originally Posted by rickg523
Article is originally from the LA Times, but they have a paywall, so here's a reprint of an interesting, more optimistic point of view.
Article
Naturally, I hope he is right.

What I can’t tell from the article is how he accounts for changes in testing or counting policies. The article says his prediction for China was very accurate, but China had a one day huge jump in cases on Feb 12 due to a policy change. It didn’t really change how many were infected, just how many were counted. How did he predict that? How did he predict that CA and NY changed their testing guidelines yesterday?
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Old Mar 22, 2020 | 11:37 pm
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NPR report from Italy: https://www.npr.org/transcripts/817974987

POGGIOLI (NPR): Some question why Italy was caught off guard when the virus outbreak was revealed on February 21. Remuzzi says only now is he hearing new information from general practitioners.

REMUZZI (Doctor): That they remember having seen very strange pneumonias, very severe, particularly in old people in December and even in November. It means that the virus was circulating at least in Lombardy before we were aware of this outbreak occurring in China.
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Old Mar 22, 2020 | 11:41 pm
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Originally Posted by username
NPR report from Italy: https://www.npr.org/transcripts/817974987

POGGIOLI (NPR): Some question why Italy was caught off guard when the virus outbreak was revealed on February 21. Remuzzi says only now is he hearing new information from general practitioners.

REMUZZI (Doctor): That they remember having seen very strange pneumonias, very severe, particularly in old people in December and even in November. It means that the virus was circulating at least in Lombardy before we were aware of this outbreak occurring in China.
Every country with an early outbreak is being assessed for (chastised for) their links with China.
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Old Mar 22, 2020 | 11:47 pm
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Originally Posted by invisible
Spanish Ministry of health published statistics:
https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesional...2_COVID-19.pdf

Pages 1-2 are most telling. Please read and share here what you think.

tb your comment would be especially valuable.
Do I read this right? For Madrid, for example:

Total cases: 9702
Hospitalized: 8441
ICU: 834
Deaths: 1022
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Old Mar 23, 2020 | 12:24 am
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Originally Posted by notquiteaff
Do I read this right? For Madrid, for example:

Total cases: 9702
Hospitalized: 8441
ICU: 834
Deaths: 1022
I am not commenting because it is difficult to believe hospitalization numbers... Unless they decided to hoard everyone positive in hospitals.
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Old Mar 23, 2020 | 12:35 am
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Originally Posted by username
NPR report from Italy: https://www.npr.org/transcripts/817974987

POGGIOLI (NPR): Some question why Italy was caught off guard when the virus outbreak was revealed on February 21. Remuzzi says only now is he hearing new information from general practitioners.

REMUZZI (Doctor): That they remember having seen very strange pneumonias, very severe, particularly in old people in December and even in November. It means that the virus was circulating at least in Lombardy before we were aware of this outbreak occurring in China.

That might just be seeing some things, imaginary or not, in hindsight. I'd hesitate to draw conclusions from that.
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Old Mar 23, 2020 | 1:05 am
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Originally Posted by notquiteaff
Do I read this right? For Madrid, for example:

Total cases: 9702
Hospitalized: 8441
ICU: 834
Deaths: 1022
To me this looks like only testing people presenting with serious symptoms.
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Old Mar 23, 2020 | 5:26 am
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Originally Posted by bobbytables
To me this looks like only testing people presenting with serious symptoms.
Yes. Widespread testing was stopped about a week ago as it could not be maintained.

If you are interested in dissecting what happened at what point that lead to where Spain is now there is a summary of action taken (and not taken) from the very end of February in the Covid-19 thread in the Spain Forum.
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Old Mar 23, 2020 | 7:33 am
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Originally Posted by FlyBitcoin
As I posted earlier today, Italy may be starting to flatten the curve. Now the official numbers are out.
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/italy/
They had a false indicator back on March 16th which did not hold, but hopefully this is the start of a more positive trend.
Each of the significant dips are associated with a weekend. (2, 10, 16, 22). Would this be testing or reporting delays attributable to weekend factors, rather than a true flattening of the curve?
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Old Mar 23, 2020 | 7:37 am
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Here is what I believe to be one of the first published accounts of asymptomatic transmission.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2762028

There are countless others.
Another early one: https://www.france24.com/en/20200210...ad-coronavirus
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Old Mar 23, 2020 | 7:39 am
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Originally Posted by cmtlatitudes
Each of the significant dips are associated with a weekend. (2, 10, 16, 22). Would this be testing or reporting delays attributable to weekend factors, rather than a true flattening of the curve?
March 16-17 was a Monday and Tuesday
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Old Mar 23, 2020 | 8:09 am
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Originally Posted by FlyBitcoin
March 16-17 was a Monday and Tuesday
The 16th was a Monday. That's still possibly "coming off the weekend" factor in terms of data sets in testing or reporting of testing, at least to me.

I don't pretend to know what it means. Or if it means anything. But the dips are so far clustered:

March 1 - March 2nd: Sunday - Monday
March 9 - 10: Monday - Tuesday
March 15-16: Sunday - Monday
March 21-22: Saturday - Sunday
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Old Mar 23, 2020 | 8:22 am
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Originally Posted by cmtlatitudes
The 16th was a Monday. That's still possibly "coming off the weekend" factor in terms of data sets in testing or reporting of testing, at least to me.

I don't pretend to know what it means. Or if it means anything. But the dips are so far clustered:

March 1 - March 2nd: Sunday - Monday
March 9 - 10: Monday - Tuesday
March 15-16: Sunday - Monday
March 21-22: Saturday - Sunday
If their testing capacity changes on certain days of the week, then they will need a full week to determine if the curve is flattening.

Just like a location where testing is still ramping up will delay knowing when the curve is flattening and suffer greater economic and social consequences prior to the realization that distancing measures are working.

When testing is not consistent, we can also look at hospitalized cases as a guide as long as the criteria for hospitalization is not changing on the fly as it is in Italy.
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Old Mar 23, 2020 | 8:30 am
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Originally Posted by FlyBitcoin
If their testing capacity changes on certain days of the week, then they will need a full week to determine if the curve is flattening.

Just like a location where testing is still ramping up will delay knowing when the curve is flattening and suffer greater economic and social consequences prior to the realization that distancing measures are working.

When testing is not consistent, we can also look at hospitalized cases as a guide as long as the criteria for hospitalization is not changing on the fly as it is in Italy.
Yes, agree. I guess what I was saying - (not that well !) - based on previous data points, it would be premature to think March 21-March 22nd is the start of a true flattening of the curve.

Certainly we can hope so of course.
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Old Mar 23, 2020 | 11:20 am
  #4155  
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Originally Posted by FlyBitcoin
Here is what I believe to be one of the first published accounts of asymptomatic transmission.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2762028

There are countless others.
Another early one: https://www.france24.com/en/20200210...ad-coronavirus

There are about 400k cases worldwide.

You'd think we'd have more than accounts of asymptomatic transmission. There must be better data.
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