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Old Jan 27, 2020, 9:09 am
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This thread has become a valuable resource on Corona Virus/COVID-19 in general and no longer just about its impact on China travel. In order for the thread to remain fact-based and useful, posters are reminded to keep it free of speculation, conjecture and fear-mongering. Posts which do not meet these guidelines or which break the FT rules may be edited or deleted. Please observe the following FT rules in particular:

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Coronavirus / COVID-19 : general fact-based reporting

 
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Old Mar 10, 2020 | 10:34 am
  #3721  
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Originally Posted by yosithezet
Could you compare and contrast the two viruses? We’re the mortality and morbidity rates similar? Was it transmitted in similar ways by asymptomatic people...
According to Wikipedia (Swine Influenza and 2009 flu pandemic):
Treatable with antiviral drugs, vaccine within 5 months of the 2009 outbreak, case fatality rate of 0.01-0.08%.
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Old Mar 10, 2020 | 10:34 am
  #3722  
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Originally Posted by yosithezet
Singapore is under control because people have been taking steps to mitigate for about 6 weeks. I have been to the office only twice in the past three weeks and today we, major tech MNC, were divided into two teams who won’t meet face to face until further notice. Each team is allowed in the office on alternate weeks though strongly encouraged to work from home. We haven’t been traveling so as not to bring the virus back from other places. Everyone is vigilant, lots of PSAs on TV and radio. A huge effort in contact tracing.
My company has two offices in Singapore and they've been split with no face to face contact between the two like that. Assigned WFH employees are banned from coming in and voluntary VFH employees are discouraged from doing so. Travel has basically been suspended with guidance on reporting personal/household travel & self isolation/quarantine guidelines depending on the origination.

Singapore also has the DORSCON scheme in place that guides the sort of measures that should be taken. Along with the status dashboard, I've been impressed by their response.
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Old Mar 10, 2020 | 10:39 am
  #3723  
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Originally Posted by yosithezet
Only some 4400 people in the US had been tested and 570 cases? Now 729 cases.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...umbers/607714/

Insanity!

"Last week, a Pennsylvania official told us that the state could test only a dozen or so people a day,..."

A dozen/day!
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Old Mar 10, 2020 | 10:40 am
  #3724  
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Originally Posted by narvik
According to Wikipedia (Swine Influenza and 2009 flu pandemic):
Treatable with antiviral drugs, vaccine within 5 months of the 2009 outbreak, case fatality rate of 0.01-0.08%.
So an order of magnitude less infectious and deadly than COCID19. Treatable. No reason to even mention it in the same breath.
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Old Mar 10, 2020 | 10:42 am
  #3725  
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Originally Posted by Loren Pechtel
How is this local incompetence? Yes, they tried to hide it but that doesn't magically make test kits appear. This is incompetence from Washington and the CDC, not local incompetence.
Either deliberately hiding it or just not knowing IS incompetence. Everyone and every organization is responsible for their own actions. Just because the CDC is also incompetent, doesn't absolve local health officials. These are the very same ones responsible for implementing control measures and when they apparently can't keep track of what they're doing and won't/can't answer basic questions from lawmakers that have oversight and news reporters, that should be concerning.
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Old Mar 10, 2020 | 10:46 am
  #3726  
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I live in North Carolina, population a bit less than 10.5 million. per the department of health, we currently have supplies to test 300 people for COVID-19.

300. not per day, total. 300 people can currently be tested.
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Old Mar 10, 2020 | 11:30 am
  #3727  
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Originally Posted by karenkay
I live in North Carolina, population a bit less than 10.5 million. per the department of health, we currently have supplies to test 300 people for COVID-19.

300. not per day, total. 300 people can currently be tested.
Your share of the mythical million tests should 10.5/330*1,000,000 = 31,818 if distribution to states was based on per capital basis. So about 15,000 people if two tests per person.
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Last edited by notquiteaff; Mar 10, 2020 at 11:37 am Reason: mystical -> mythical
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Old Mar 10, 2020 | 11:48 am
  #3728  
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Originally Posted by yosithezet
Only some 4400 people in the US had been tested and 570 cases? Now 729 cases.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...umbers/607714/
CDC is no longer reporting testing numbers, but CDC director confirmed number:

per CNN:
US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Dr. Robert Redfield said 4,856 novel coronavirus tests have been run in public health labs across the United States.

Redfield said that number, which was last updated on Monday, does not include clinical labs or private labs.

While speaking at a House Appropriations hearing for the 2021 CDC budget, Redfield said the CDC is working on a new reporting system to track tests which should be available soon.
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Old Mar 10, 2020 | 11:54 am
  #3729  
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Originally Posted by yosithezet
Reckless endangerment of public health?

This article has some details on state laws for quarantines and violations of quarantine orders:

https://www.lawfareblog.com/quaranti...ected-covid-19
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Old Mar 10, 2020 | 12:25 pm
  #3730  
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Originally Posted by narvik
China's measures helped control the spread for sure.

It's also possible the rise in temperatures helped and is helping.
Made a quick chart showing temps in Wuhan, China (taking data from weather.com from Dec 1, 2019 to Mar 9, 2020, averaging daily high and daily low, red line is added "by hand"):

I saw it posted somewhere that optimal transmission of the virus is at between 8 and 9 degrees Celsius. That's pretty cold. I would think even in colder places, buildings are heated to a much warmer temperature indoors.
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Old Mar 10, 2020 | 12:35 pm
  #3731  
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Originally Posted by wco81
I saw it posted somewhere that optimal transmission of the virus is at between 8 and 9 degrees Celsius. That's pretty cold. I would think even in colder places, buildings are heated to a much warmer temperature indoors.
8.72 degrees, to be “precise”.

The number was mentioned in the post below by Diplomatico.

I haven’t read the article or study yet, but given that we don’t even seem to know with certainty yet what transmission mechanisms “work best”, being able to determine the perfect temperature for the virus to spread with two decimal places precision seems amazing to me.

Originally Posted by Diplomatico

Coronavirus ‘highly sensitive’ to high temperatures, but don’t bank on summer killing it off, studies say

  • Pathogen appears to spread fastest at 8.72 degrees Celsius, so countries in colder climes should ‘adopt the strictest control measures’, according to researchers from Sun Yat-sen University in Guangdong province
  • But head of WHO’s health emergencies programme says it is ‘a false hope’ to think Covid-19 will just disappear like the flu
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/scie...nt-bank-summer
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Old Mar 10, 2020 | 12:37 pm
  #3732  
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Some interesting news pieces:

"Greece and the Czech Republic announced that all schools and universities would close....."
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...?ocid=primentp

"The death toll from alcohol poisoning in Iran rose to 44 Tuesday, state news agency IRNA reported, over misguided efforts to ward off the new coronavirus by drinking bootleg alcohol...."
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/oth...?ocid=primentp

"Why hasn’t Trump been tested for the coronavirus?"
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...?ocid=primentp
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Old Mar 10, 2020 | 12:49 pm
  #3733  
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The CDC appears to be encouraging hoarding for certain groups. links below

The CDC is recommending people with underlying conditions or who are over 60 to stock up on medications, household items and groceries to stay at home “for a period of time,” she said. The U.S. government recommended travelers with underlying health conditions avoid taking any cruises anywhere in the world. “We also recommend people at higher risk avoid non-essential travel, such as long plane trips,” she said.

AUS bans events with more than 2500 people. I was at AUS last saturday and there were way more than 2500 flying out. So if they really believe this they should just close the airport.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/many-americans-will-be-exposed-to-coronavirus-through-2021-cdc-says.html

https://www.statesman.com/news/20200...n-large-events
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Old Mar 10, 2020 | 12:50 pm
  #3734  
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National Guard deployed in New York State to enforce closure of large gathering areas: https://nypost.com/2020/03/10/nation...f-coronavirus/
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Old Mar 10, 2020 | 1:11 pm
  #3735  
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Originally Posted by nk15
I agree, criminal negligence or negligent homicide, same goes for the regular flu, you show up at work sick and infect vulnerable co-worker and they die, it is on you (and your employer, if they did not have sick leave). I know it is controversial and tricky to criminalize this, but it is not much different from someone causing a DUI death. Unless you can show that you did all you could to avoid it.
Umm..... wow. This would be impossible since, most likely, lots of people who are colonized with SARS-Cov-2 are shedding virus without symptoms, or with minimal symptoms. However a DUI person is not colonized or asymptomatic. MRSA is another example of bad stuff that isn't getting similar attention. Some links to help you start having a better understanding of whats going on.

https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...nical-guidance

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2719511/
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