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Thanksgiving premium fare discussion

Old Oct 28, 2014, 2:19 pm
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Last edit by: 18sas
This thread is to discuss the historically annual premium class fare sales that occur for travel (mostly TATL) during the US Thanksgiving holiday period.

FAQ

Q: When is Thanksgiving? What travel dates are covered in the Thanksgiving Day sales?
A: Thanksgiving in the United States is observed on the 4th Thursday of November.

The week of Thanksgiving and the weekend after are considered to be the busiest period for US domestic air travel due to large numbers of people traveling to spend the holiday with loved ones. As a result business travel demand, especially for international business travel, is unusually weak. This drop in demand is believed to be the origin for the Thanksgiving holiday international business class fares.

Typically these fares are offered for travel outbound from the US in the period from the Sunday before to the day after Thanksgiving. Return travel is usually valid for the day after Thanksgiving to the following Wednesday.

Q: When do the Thanksgiving fare sales start?
A: Sometime in the summer with an average start date of Aug 4.
The first reports, by year, posted on the message boards of Thanksgiving holiday sales are as follows:

2015: Jul 25**
2014: Aug 9
2013: Jun 18
2012: Jul 11
2011: Aug 8
2010: Aug 18
2009: Aug 11
2008: Jul 2
2007: Sep 22

**In 2015, on Sep 30 OW initiated a very brief 2nd round of discounted fares. It only lasted about 18 hours.

Q: How good are the Thanksgiving sales? What are some typical prices?
A: Many times the Thanksgiving airfare deals are the lowest TATL premium class fares offered the entire calendar year.

The lowest prices reported to the board each year are as follows:

Note: All prices from here on out are all-in round-trip/return prices in J unless otherwise noted.
2015: $1608 NYC-LIS on OW
2014: $1625 JFK-MAD on a combination of US/AY. Sample dates: 11/27-12/02
2013: $1400~ NYC-LHR/DUB/MAN on UA/DL/AF/KL
2012: $854 EWR-DUB on US
2011: $1380 NYC-DUB on *A
2010: $1272 EWR-LHR on CO
2009: $1309 EWR-OSL on CO
2008: $1560 PIT-FRA on AA
2007: $1100~ EWR-ZRH on UA


Some other notable deals reported:

2015
$1795 NYC-LIS on ST

2014
$1700 JFK-ARN on AY
$1800 JFK-BCN/MAD on ST/OW
$1940 MIA-MAD/MAD-JFK on OW/*A
$1950 MCI-MAD/BCN on OW
$2050 EWR-OSL/ARN on *A
$2000-$2100 BOS-MAD/ARN
$2074-$2120 MIA-MAD/BCN on ST/OW/*A
$2088 BOS-MAD
$2100 NYC-OSL on ST
$2157 DFW-MAD on OW
$2800 LAX/SFO-MAD/BCN

2013
$1417 JFK-LHR/DUB-JFK on ST
$1444 PHL-FRA/MUC on US
$1448 JFK-LHR/LIS-JFK on ST
$1486 EWR-BRU on *A (+9W)
$1500 JFK-LHR on VS
$1514 JFK-LHR/BCN-JFK on ST
$1519 JFK-LHR/MAD-JFK on ST
$1537 JFK-LHR/BSL-JFK on ST
$1539 JFK-LHR/GVA-JFK on ST
$1544 JFK-LHR/BRU-JFK on ST
$1563 JFK-LHR/DUB-BOS (booked Oct 30)
$1600+ NYC-FRA/MUC/VIE/GVA on *A
$1612 JFK-LON (booked Sep 19)
$1613 NYC-LHR on *A
$1629 JFK-BCN
$1673 EWR-AMS (booked Jun 30)
$1753 LGA-AMS on *A
$1900 RSW-LIS/CPH/LHR/OSL on *A
$1965 JFK-CDG on ST
$1986 BOS-VIE on *A (booked Sep 15)
$2025 IAH-LHR on OW/ST/*A
$2050 NYC-IST
$2115 JFK-MLA on *A?
$2120 AGS-LHR/AMS-SFO on ST
$2200-$2300 LAX/SFO/SEA-???
$2237 IAD-FCO on *A
$2344 MIA-LED on ST
$2400~ DEN-TXL on *A
$2464~ SFO-LHR
$2500-2600 LAS-LHR/CDG
$2566 SAN-AMS on ST
$2605 LAX-CDG on ST
$3000~ ORD-LHR on *A in F
$3663 SFO-LHR in F
$3666 SFO-LHR on UA in F

2012
$1050 BOS-DUB on *A
$1085 LGA-MAD on *A
$1250 JFK-LHR on VS
$1270 ORD-DUB on *A
$1659 JFK-BRU on *A/ST
$1696 AGS-LHR/AMS-JFK on *A/ST
$1754 BOS-LHR on ST/VS
$1936 LAX/SFO(?)-MAD
$1960 RDU-FCO on ST
$1977 RST-LHR on ST
$2000- AGS/BHM/CAE/CHA/GSP/SAV-LHR on ST
$2000+ LAX/SFO(?)-FCO/CDG/ATH
$2100~ MSY-OSL on ST
$2300~ SFO-LHR/FRA on *A
$2427 CMH-LHR on OW in F
$2540 JFK-IST on ST
$2571 ATL-LHR on ST
$2662 BOS-IST on ST? (booked Jul 31)
$3600 LAX-LHR on *A in F

2011
$1400 JFK-LHR/BRU/CDG on ST
$1414 JFK-BRU on OW
$1475 EWR-LHR on *A
$1491 JFK-BCN on OW
$1500- NYC-BRU/CDG/LIS/MAD/FRA/DUB/AMS/VIE/MAN/OSL/SNN/GVA/CPH/MUC on *A
$1650 EWR-FCO on *A
$1668 IAD-CDG on *A
$1700 IAH-DUB on *A
$1717 DCA-MAD on OW
$1860 CMH-MAD on *A
$1900 WAS-LHR on UA
$1907 BNA-BCN on ST
$2035 FNT-FCO on ST
$2033 BNA-FCO on ST
$2258 LAX/SAN-BRU on ST
$2285~ DEN/LAX/SFO-LHR on *A
$2297 SFO-MUC on OW
$2400 JFK-MUC on *A in F
$2916 WAS-LHR on *A in F
$3640 SFO-LHR on *A in F
$3740~ SFO-FRA/MUC on *A in F
$4000~ LAX-LHR on *A in F
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Thanksgiving premium fare discussion

Old Aug 24, 2015, 7:08 am
  #196  
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Originally Posted by DL2SXM
I hate to say it guys/gals but it doesn't look like thanksgiving fares will drop any lower.
Then let them fly empty planes.
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Old Aug 24, 2015, 7:55 am
  #197  
 
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Originally Posted by Dieuwer
Then let them fly empty planes.
Maybe they have cut capacity enough overall that they don't need the dramatic cuts for Thanksgiving.
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Old Aug 24, 2015, 7:59 am
  #198  
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Originally Posted by 110pgl
Maybe they have cut capacity enough overall that they don't need the dramatic cuts for Thanksgiving.
I am talking about the current scheduled capacity.
I just checked JFK-NCE-JFK on DL 11/25-11/30. Planes seem completely empty upfront.
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Old Aug 24, 2015, 8:59 am
  #199  
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Originally Posted by bmchris
Why? Because the price of oil is plunging and the confidence in world stock markets is tanking?
oil plunges and spikes, same with the markets. Its a fact of life.

If you look at the wiki, the best Turkey day fares in years past have already occurred.
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Old Aug 24, 2015, 9:02 am
  #200  
 
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Originally Posted by DL2SXM
oil plunges and spikes, same with the markets. Its a fact of life.
Not at the current levels. They are at 6 year lows. That means room for airlines to discount. Stock market drop is worst in 4 years. That's business confidence. Less premium travel demand - business and personal.
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Old Aug 24, 2015, 11:24 am
  #201  
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Originally Posted by bmchris
Why? Because the price of oil is plunging and the confidence in world stock markets is tanking?
Winner of the coveted RNE's Pick for Post of the Week!
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Old Aug 24, 2015, 11:44 am
  #202  
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Originally Posted by DL2SXM
If you look at the wiki, the best Turkey day fares in years past have already occurred.
Maybe this year the heads at yield management decided to wait a little longer before discounting?
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Old Aug 24, 2015, 12:35 pm
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I thought there were people in 2014 talking about sales/rates in October (28 day window vs a longer one?) I was trying to re-read this morning to know what sort of timeline there has been in the past....
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Old Aug 25, 2015, 9:11 pm
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Originally Posted by Hoyaheel
I thought there were people in 2014 talking about sales/rates in October (28 day window vs a longer one?) I was trying to re-read this morning to know what sort of timeline there has been in the past....
You can start on about page 4 of this thread and read onwards. The discussion this year seems to be panning out just like last year even including

Originally Posted by cynicalbuthopeful
with the gas prices falling rapidly, I keeping wondering if we will see a fare sale...
Sadly we didn't.

What's past is prologue, as they say, but maybe just maybe things will turn out differently this year.
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Old Aug 26, 2015, 8:09 am
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Originally Posted by 18sas
You can start on about page 4 of this thread and read onwards. The discussion this year seems to be panning out just like last year even including.
Yep, I went back and read the whole thread again (I followed along last year, though we already had tix booked for early Dec due to a river cruise) but I also googled and thought I saw some other FT threads (not the Thanksgiving one) mentioning Oct releases. Oh well, it doesn't really matter at this point. We'll just hold off and if we get a good deal, we'll jump, and if not, we'll either not fly business or not travel to London
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Old Aug 26, 2015, 4:28 pm
  #206  
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Originally Posted by Dieuwer
I am talking about the current scheduled capacity.
I just checked JFK-NCE-JFK on DL 11/25-11/30. Planes seem completely empty upfront.
the airlines will simply fill the front of the bus (and Boeing) with non-revs. In fact, the holidays are the best time of year for non revs to fly up front.
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Old Aug 26, 2015, 5:54 pm
  #207  
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Originally Posted by DL2SXM
the airlines will simply fill the front of the bus (and Boeing) with non-revs. In fact, the holidays are the best time of year for non revs to fly up front.
Sure, let's lose a pile of money. Shareholders will be thrilled.
Even selling a J ticket for $100 will be better than giving the seat away to non-revs.
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Old Aug 26, 2015, 8:49 pm
  #208  
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Originally Posted by Dieuwer
Sure, let's lose a pile of money. Shareholders will be thrilled.
Even selling a J ticket for $100 will be better than giving the seat away to non-revs.
that would be a huge slap in the face to the employees, especially Delta who, may I remind you, are mostly non unionized.
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Old Aug 26, 2015, 9:50 pm
  #209  
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Originally Posted by DL2SXM
that would be a huge slap in the face to the employees, especially Delta who, may I remind you, are mostly non unionized.
But in another context, it's OK to slap the faces of elites by selling domestic FC seats for very small additional amounts of money (often a difference of much less than $100 compared to coach tickets) to kettles rather than giving them as upgrades, which is widely emphasized as a published benefit of elite status???
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Old Aug 27, 2015, 11:22 am
  #210  
 
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Welcome to the new world. I recently renewed AA Executive Platinum and they didn't even promote the unlimited upgrade benefit. I'm sure they'd rather I purchased front cabin seats.

Here is the wording from their email:

"Congratulations on retaining your AAdvantage Executive Platinum membership. Your status has been extended through the next elite membership year.

I hope you continue to enjoy the benefits designed to make your travel more enjoyable, including priority check-in and boarding, complimentary access to preferred seats and three free checked bags."
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