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Thanksgiving premium fare discussion

Old Oct 28, 2014, 2:19 pm
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Last edit by: 18sas
This thread is to discuss the historically annual premium class fare sales that occur for travel (mostly TATL) during the US Thanksgiving holiday period.

FAQ

Q: When is Thanksgiving? What travel dates are covered in the Thanksgiving Day sales?
A: Thanksgiving in the United States is observed on the 4th Thursday of November.

The week of Thanksgiving and the weekend after are considered to be the busiest period for US domestic air travel due to large numbers of people traveling to spend the holiday with loved ones. As a result business travel demand, especially for international business travel, is unusually weak. This drop in demand is believed to be the origin for the Thanksgiving holiday international business class fares.

Typically these fares are offered for travel outbound from the US in the period from the Sunday before to the day after Thanksgiving. Return travel is usually valid for the day after Thanksgiving to the following Wednesday.

Q: When do the Thanksgiving fare sales start?
A: Sometime in the summer with an average start date of Aug 4.
The first reports, by year, posted on the message boards of Thanksgiving holiday sales are as follows:

2015: Jul 25**
2014: Aug 9
2013: Jun 18
2012: Jul 11
2011: Aug 8
2010: Aug 18
2009: Aug 11
2008: Jul 2
2007: Sep 22

**In 2015, on Sep 30 OW initiated a very brief 2nd round of discounted fares. It only lasted about 18 hours.

Q: How good are the Thanksgiving sales? What are some typical prices?
A: Many times the Thanksgiving airfare deals are the lowest TATL premium class fares offered the entire calendar year.

The lowest prices reported to the board each year are as follows:

Note: All prices from here on out are all-in round-trip/return prices in J unless otherwise noted.
2015: $1608 NYC-LIS on OW
2014: $1625 JFK-MAD on a combination of US/AY. Sample dates: 11/27-12/02
2013: $1400~ NYC-LHR/DUB/MAN on UA/DL/AF/KL
2012: $854 EWR-DUB on US
2011: $1380 NYC-DUB on *A
2010: $1272 EWR-LHR on CO
2009: $1309 EWR-OSL on CO
2008: $1560 PIT-FRA on AA
2007: $1100~ EWR-ZRH on UA


Some other notable deals reported:

2015
$1795 NYC-LIS on ST

2014
$1700 JFK-ARN on AY
$1800 JFK-BCN/MAD on ST/OW
$1940 MIA-MAD/MAD-JFK on OW/*A
$1950 MCI-MAD/BCN on OW
$2050 EWR-OSL/ARN on *A
$2000-$2100 BOS-MAD/ARN
$2074-$2120 MIA-MAD/BCN on ST/OW/*A
$2088 BOS-MAD
$2100 NYC-OSL on ST
$2157 DFW-MAD on OW
$2800 LAX/SFO-MAD/BCN

2013
$1417 JFK-LHR/DUB-JFK on ST
$1444 PHL-FRA/MUC on US
$1448 JFK-LHR/LIS-JFK on ST
$1486 EWR-BRU on *A (+9W)
$1500 JFK-LHR on VS
$1514 JFK-LHR/BCN-JFK on ST
$1519 JFK-LHR/MAD-JFK on ST
$1537 JFK-LHR/BSL-JFK on ST
$1539 JFK-LHR/GVA-JFK on ST
$1544 JFK-LHR/BRU-JFK on ST
$1563 JFK-LHR/DUB-BOS (booked Oct 30)
$1600+ NYC-FRA/MUC/VIE/GVA on *A
$1612 JFK-LON (booked Sep 19)
$1613 NYC-LHR on *A
$1629 JFK-BCN
$1673 EWR-AMS (booked Jun 30)
$1753 LGA-AMS on *A
$1900 RSW-LIS/CPH/LHR/OSL on *A
$1965 JFK-CDG on ST
$1986 BOS-VIE on *A (booked Sep 15)
$2025 IAH-LHR on OW/ST/*A
$2050 NYC-IST
$2115 JFK-MLA on *A?
$2120 AGS-LHR/AMS-SFO on ST
$2200-$2300 LAX/SFO/SEA-???
$2237 IAD-FCO on *A
$2344 MIA-LED on ST
$2400~ DEN-TXL on *A
$2464~ SFO-LHR
$2500-2600 LAS-LHR/CDG
$2566 SAN-AMS on ST
$2605 LAX-CDG on ST
$3000~ ORD-LHR on *A in F
$3663 SFO-LHR in F
$3666 SFO-LHR on UA in F

2012
$1050 BOS-DUB on *A
$1085 LGA-MAD on *A
$1250 JFK-LHR on VS
$1270 ORD-DUB on *A
$1659 JFK-BRU on *A/ST
$1696 AGS-LHR/AMS-JFK on *A/ST
$1754 BOS-LHR on ST/VS
$1936 LAX/SFO(?)-MAD
$1960 RDU-FCO on ST
$1977 RST-LHR on ST
$2000- AGS/BHM/CAE/CHA/GSP/SAV-LHR on ST
$2000+ LAX/SFO(?)-FCO/CDG/ATH
$2100~ MSY-OSL on ST
$2300~ SFO-LHR/FRA on *A
$2427 CMH-LHR on OW in F
$2540 JFK-IST on ST
$2571 ATL-LHR on ST
$2662 BOS-IST on ST? (booked Jul 31)
$3600 LAX-LHR on *A in F

2011
$1400 JFK-LHR/BRU/CDG on ST
$1414 JFK-BRU on OW
$1475 EWR-LHR on *A
$1491 JFK-BCN on OW
$1500- NYC-BRU/CDG/LIS/MAD/FRA/DUB/AMS/VIE/MAN/OSL/SNN/GVA/CPH/MUC on *A
$1650 EWR-FCO on *A
$1668 IAD-CDG on *A
$1700 IAH-DUB on *A
$1717 DCA-MAD on OW
$1860 CMH-MAD on *A
$1900 WAS-LHR on UA
$1907 BNA-BCN on ST
$2035 FNT-FCO on ST
$2033 BNA-FCO on ST
$2258 LAX/SAN-BRU on ST
$2285~ DEN/LAX/SFO-LHR on *A
$2297 SFO-MUC on OW
$2400 JFK-MUC on *A in F
$2916 WAS-LHR on *A in F
$3640 SFO-LHR on *A in F
$3740~ SFO-FRA/MUC on *A in F
$4000~ LAX-LHR on *A in F
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Thanksgiving premium fare discussion

Old Sep 15, 2015, 7:35 pm
  #226  
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Originally Posted by cfischer
Originally Posted by DL2SXM
what are you talking about? Fares had been as low as $2200.00 for T day travel this year. While I agree that $2500 is nothing special, years past had seen fares as low as 2000 bones.
Originally Posted by Dieuwer
From NYC I presume.
Besides, we had T-Day fares around $1500 ai not too long ago.
Agreed, $2200 is nothing special. It is what you pay for x-mas as well. T-day used to be at least $500 less than x-mas ... no longer
There were tons of $1500 fares last summer to Europe from almost everywhere. Guess there must be many sold tickets c for capacity.
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Old Sep 15, 2015, 8:39 pm
  #227  
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We did see a lot of ex-Europe sales at good prices. I guess the airlines rather give Europeans a deal than Americans.
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Old Sep 16, 2015, 6:30 am
  #228  
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Originally Posted by Dieuwer
We did see a lot of ex-Europe sales at good prices. I guess the airlines rather give Europeans a deal than Americans.
Different markets have different fares.
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Old Sep 16, 2015, 6:31 am
  #229  
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Originally Posted by MSPeconomist
Different markets have different fares.
I knew you would say that. And even though your are partially right, it still does not make sense. Why fill a plane with low paying Europeans? Instead, airlines should cut capacity and charge Europeans big bucks too.
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Old Sep 16, 2015, 6:36 am
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Originally Posted by Dieuwer
Why fill a plane with low paying Europeans? Instead, airlines should cut capacity and charge Europeans big bucks too.
I agree--my European friends are paying $500 r/t for a TATL, whereas I have to pay nearly $1500. The exchange rate isn't so bad that they need a $1000 savings to be convinced to come here!
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Old Sep 16, 2015, 6:42 am
  #231  
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Originally Posted by EZEDoesIt
I agree--my European friends are paying $500 r/t for a TATL, whereas I have to pay nearly $1500. The exchange rate isn't so bad that they need a $1000 savings to be convinced to come here!
Maybe it is time to call our Congressmen and demand a hearing.
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Old Sep 16, 2015, 8:39 am
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Originally Posted by Dieuwer
Maybe it is time to call our Congressmen and demand a hearing.
Lunch with a Port Authority executive would lead to a bigger payoff
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Old Sep 16, 2015, 8:45 am
  #233  
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Originally Posted by frankmu
Lunch with a Port Authority executive would lead to a bigger payoff
Only if you are an airline exec!
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Old Sep 16, 2015, 10:41 am
  #234  
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Originally Posted by Dieuwer
I knew you would say that. And even though your are partially right, it still does not make sense. Why fill a plane with low paying Europeans? Instead, airlines should cut capacity and charge Europeans big bucks too.
It depends on the price elasticities of demand of the two groups. The groups can be separated because RT fares are much less than the cost of two one way TATL tickets (in different directions).
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Old Sep 16, 2015, 11:07 am
  #235  
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Originally Posted by MSPeconomist
It depends on the price elasticities of demand of the two groups. The groups can be separated because RT fares are much less than the cost of two one way TATL tickets (in different directions).
For example the UK in 2006 had 185.5 million international arrivals or departures from UK airports, 61%of which were arrivals or departures by UK residents and 39% by overseas residents or passengers transferring and transiting. Of these passengers 77% were travelling on short-haul trips to Europe, 9% transatlantic and 14% other long-haul. Using the elasticities in table 3 an average price elasticity for UK inbound and outbound travel can be derived of -1.0.
Njegovan (2006) found that UK residents travelling overseas for leisure had a price elasticity of -0.7 to -0.8. Business travel will be less elastic. So a conservative estimate for the price elasticity (Pe) of inbound travel by overseas residents ... is -1.3
See page 28-29: http://www.iata.org/whatwedo/documen...vel_demand.pdf
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Old Sep 17, 2015, 4:52 pm
  #236  
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Originally Posted by frankmu
Lunch with a Port Authority executive would lead to a bigger payoff
and a direct flight to the airport that's closest to the location of your vacation home
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Old Sep 17, 2015, 7:21 pm
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Originally Posted by frankmu
Lunch with a Port Authority executive would lead to a bigger payoff
Originally Posted by DL2SXM
and a direct flight to the airport that's closest to the location of your vacation home
+1 to both ^^
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Old Sep 23, 2015, 12:10 pm
  #238  
 
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Originally Posted by Dieuwer
We did see a lot of ex-Europe sales at good prices. I guess the airlines rather give Europeans a deal than Americans.
Could it be as simple as the fact that the US economy is comparatively stronger at the moment? That it takes more incentives to get a European to fly right now than an American?

I'm sure someone will argue if that's the case, why not fill the plane entirely with whatever passengers are willing to pay the highest price.

But if we want to be serious, Thanksgiving is specifically a vacation/leisure time for the US, so demand is likely to be greater than elsewhere. Yet even with great deals, probably not enough to fill every plane to capacity.

Another way of looking at it- maybe not everyone likes us so it's a nuisance tax.
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Old Sep 23, 2015, 12:31 pm
  #239  
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Originally Posted by Mike Jacoubowsky
Yet even with great deals, probably not enough to fill every plane to capacity.
What "great deals". Ain't no deals. Unless you think that $3000+ to Europe over Thanksgiving is great or a deal.
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Old Sep 23, 2015, 4:48 pm
  #240  
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Originally Posted by EZEDoesIt
I agree--my European friends are paying $500 r/t for a TATL, whereas I have to pay nearly $1500. The exchange rate isn't so bad that they need a $1000 savings to be convinced to come here!
I want to see these 500 dollar business fares ex-Europe TATL!

Otherwise, there totally are Y-fares NA-Europe RT for 500 dollars.
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