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Old Jan 27, 2020, 9:09 am
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Coronavirus / COVID-19 : general fact-based reporting

 
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Old Aug 8, 2020, 8:52 pm
  #5941  
 
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There is a lot of great information in this thread and many of you are professionals on the cutting edge. What would you recommend for a patient who has been on vent at 80% with paralytics and blood pressure support for a week? Chest xrays still show occlusion in the lower halves, but this has been there for a month now with no change. I can provide more details on the medical picture if necessary--just PM me.

My father needs a chance to fight so anything anyone knows that we can look into or suggest would be great. We have a physician in the family with first hand experience with treating covid looking into various ideas, but I know there's so much investigational stuff out there that it's hard to stay on top of it all and any little thing that can help him at this point is what he needs to continue the fight.
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Old Aug 9, 2020, 5:16 am
  #5942  
 
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Originally Posted by doctoravios
I do worry about the obsession with new vaccine designs in the midst of a pandemic. Why not stick with tried and tested killed virus vaccine candidates to begin with and save the recombinant/viral vector/RNA approaches for smaller scale research? I fear a lot of triallists take a narrow view to determining "safety" and "efficacy" which consists of short-term outcomes directly related to the investigational medicinal product whereas vaccine safety/efficacy involves pre-existing immunity and environmental interactions would could precede or succeed vaccine administration by several years.

And I believe someone else has already posted about the risks of a poorly efficacious vaccine which could turn people who would have been symptomatic into asymptomatic spreaders, paradoxically increasing R value during future outbreaks.
Here is a new piece on efficient asymptomatic spread, regarding reproductive features that might be activating cross-immunity and other latent protective mechanisms in ways that accelerate population immunity.

40% of people with coronavirus have no symptoms. Might they be the key to ending the pandemic?
https://www.chron.com/news/article/4...s-15469295.php
- One mind-blowing hypothesis - bolstered by a flurry of recent studies - is that a segment of the world's population may have partial protection thanks to "memory" T cells, the part of our immune system trained to recognize specific invaders. This could originate from cross-protection derived from standard childhood vaccinations. Or, as a paper published Tuesday in Science suggested, it could trace back to previous encounters with other coronaviruses, such as those that cause the common cold.

"This might potentially explain why some people seem to fend off the virus and may be less susceptible to becoming severely ill," National Institutes of Health Director Francis Collins remarked in a blog post this past week. On a population level, such findings, if validated, could be far-reaching.

Hans-Gustaf Ljunggren, a researcher at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, and others have suggested that public immunity to the coronavirus could be significantly higher than what has been suggested by studies. In communities in Barcelona, Boston, Wuhan and other major cities, the proportion of people estimated to have antibodies and therefore presumably be immune has mostly been in the single digits. But if others had partial protection from T cells, that would raise a community's immunity level much higher. This, Ljunggren said, would be "very good news from a public health perspective."

Some experts have gone so far as to speculate about whether some surprising recent trends in the epidemiology of the coronavirus - the drop in infection rates in Sweden where there have been no widespread lockdowns or mask requirements, or the high rates of infection in Mumbai's poor areas but little serious disease - might be due to preexisting immunity.

Others say it's far too early to draw such conclusions. Anthony Fauci, the United States' top infectious-disease expert, said in an interview that while these ideas are being intensely studied, such theories are premature. He said at least some partial preexisting immunity in some individuals seems a possibility. And he said the amount of virus someone is exposed to - called the inoculum - "is almost certainly an important and likely factor" based on what we know about other viruses. -

Last edited by FlitBen; Aug 9, 2020 at 5:36 am
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Old Aug 10, 2020, 8:23 pm
  #5943  
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Canada: No mask, no MD note, no flight.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...681510?cmp=rss
Non-medical masks have been required for air travellers in Canada since mid-April to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

But a ministerial order issued Friday closes a loophole that may have made it easier for some flyers to avoid face coverings.

Passengers who are unable to wear a face mask due to a medical condition must now present an official doctor's note stating that they are exempt from the rule, or they will be denied boarding.
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Old Aug 11, 2020, 11:30 am
  #5944  
 
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New UK study shows low risk of Covid transmission in schools

A new study of coronavirus in the schools in the UK confirms the results of earlier similar studies in Germany and France that the risk of coronavirus transmission in the schools is extremely small. This study is the largest of its kind and involved research at 100 schools around the UK.Professor Russell Viner, president of the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health and a member of the government advisory group Sage, said: “A new study that has been done in UK schools confirms there is very little evidence that the virus is transmitted in schools. This is the some of the largest data you will find on schools anywhere."

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/p...ovid-27q6zfd9l
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Old Aug 11, 2020, 12:12 pm
  #5945  
 
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The fine print:
The Public Health England study is expected to be published later this year
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Old Aug 11, 2020, 4:12 pm
  #5946  
 
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And for the fine print related to the German studies:

We are very happy here in Saxony with that outcome cause it means most likely our kids can go to school after summer without any restrictions.
Now, to put some water in the wine, the schools in this study are not fully operating yet. The are running on 3 days in school/ 2 days at home circles, the classes are separated also during breaks, mask wearing is mandatory except for classrooms and so on.
Also important to know, as expressed by the head of the study group, it is representative for areas with low transmission rates.
To be more clear on what „low transmission“ here is:
The State of Saxony with about 4 million citizens and a population density higher than New York State shows an average of 2 positive tests per day for the last 8 weeks. Scaled up to the size of the US that would count as 160 positive tests per day in the whole country which seems slightly below the actual numbers, to put it that way.
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Old Aug 11, 2020, 5:22 pm
  #5947  
 
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Originally Posted by Carolinian
A new study of coronavirus in the schools in the UK confirms the results of earlier similar studies in Germany and France that the risk of coronavirus transmission in the schools is extremely small. This study is the largest of its kind and involved research at 100 schools around the UK.Professor Russell Viner, president of the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health and a member of the government advisory group Sage, said: “A new study that has been done in UK schools confirms there is very little evidence that the virus is transmitted in schools. This is the some of the largest data you will find on schools anywhere."

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/p...ovid-27q6zfd9l
Originally Posted by red star
And for the fine print related to the German studies:

We are very happy here in Saxony with that outcome cause it means most likely our kids can go to school after summer without any restrictions.
Now, to put some water in the wine, the schools in this study are not fully operating yet. The are running on 3 days in school/ 2 days at home circles, the classes are separated also during breaks, mask wearing is mandatory except for classrooms and so on.
Also important to know, as expressed by the head of the study group, it is representative for areas with low transmission rates.
To be more clear on what „low transmission“ here is:
The State of Saxony with about 4 million citizens and a population density higher than New York State shows an average of 2 positive tests per day for the last 8 weeks. Scaled up to the size of the US that would count as 160 positive tests per day in the whole country which seems slightly below the actual numbers, to put it that way.

So there’s “there is very little evidence that the virus is transmitted” in closed schools? Okay... As far as I know, most UK schools have been closed since March. I like how the URL is “pupils-pose-no-risk-of-spreading”. That was probably the initial title before an editor made someone change the article headline to “little risk”, which still needs a lot more qualification than they give it. What percentage less compared to other age groups in the same situations? How much of an impact on overall community spread either way? The claim isn’t that young people show symptoms less, and severe symptoms even less (that appears to be true), but that young people simply don’t spread it amongst themselves and then to their teachers and families, which is a LOT more suspect. There’s plenty of evidence from camps and such that kids do indeed spread it. I’m assuming this study is not published because it hasn’t been reviewed yet?

The German studies, similarly, show that in areas with very low transmission to begin with (1/300th of the USA’s currently), schools that are opened with half capacity, isolating classes, and strict mask measures, don’t have high spread. Well duh!

It would be great, but I think it’s quite wishful thinking to believe that kids in normal packed school situations somehow can’t or won’t contribute to spread at some less but not zero amount. There is high value in school, but it is a real tradeoff. I’d be willing to shut down the thousands of “house parties” and extended family/friends get-togethers (board up the house, drop in MREs and only let them come out when they all test negative for 3 weeks) if it would let my (and their) kids go to school, but that’s not really realistic...
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Old Aug 11, 2020, 5:23 pm
  #5948  
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Originally Posted by Carolinian
A new study of coronavirus in the schools in the UK confirms the results of earlier similar studies in Germany and France that the risk of coronavirus transmission in the schools is extremely small. This study is the largest of its kind and involved research at 100 schools around the UK.Professor Russell Viner, president of the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health and a member of the government advisory group Sage, said: “A new study that has been done in UK schools confirms there is very little evidence that the virus is transmitted in schools. This is the some of the largest data you will find on schools anywhere."

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/p...ovid-27q6zfd9l
Which doesn't match what we've seen when US schools try to open.
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Old Aug 11, 2020, 5:52 pm
  #5949  
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Originally Posted by Loren Pechtel
Which doesn't match what we've seen when US schools try to open.
Perhaps the problem is less about the schools themselves but where they are located.

https://nationalpost.com/news/as-que...of-second-wave

Quebec’s closely watched experiment reopening schools amid the COVID-19 pandemic winds down next week as the summer break begins, and the reviews are largely positive.

The province was the first in the country to reopen schools after COVID-19 brought regular life to a standstill, with children outside the Montreal region heading back to class in mid-May.

The federation representing administrators of the French school system outside Montreal says that about two-thirds of students returned to class once parents got comfortable with the idea.

The federation’s president, Nicolas Prevost, said things went relatively smoothly in the schools, though maintaining physical distancing on school buses was a challenge.
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Old Aug 12, 2020, 1:47 am
  #5950  
 
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Originally Posted by Carolinian
A new study of coronavirus in the schools in the UK confirms the results of earlier similar studies in Germany and France that the risk of coronavirus transmission in the schools is extremely small. This study is the largest of its kind and involved research at 100 schools around the UK. Professor Russell Viner, president of the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health and a member of the government advisory group Sage, said: “A new study that has been done in UK schools confirms there is very little evidence that the virus is transmitted in schools. This is the some of the largest data you will find on schools anywhere."

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/p...ovid-27q6zfd9l
That makes sense in herd immunity scenarios with such robust sub-populations. Nearly all infected youth are asymptomatic and most no longer contagious after the first weeks. Such a 'student body of resistance' may develop as a broad buffer against massive transmissions into their households. What virus gets passed on will mainly inoculate older members with low loads that train their immune systems to ward off the disease. Those with the riskiest co-morbidity profiles will still have to strongly distance or live apart where possible.

The more fortunate will find themselves in communities that have developed preventive if mysterious practices of some sort.
India coronavirus: 'More than half of Mumbai slum-dwellers had Covid-19'
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-53576653
- Scientists involved with the study told the BBC that the results pointed to a number of things about the prevalence of the infection in one of India's worst-hit cities. For one, the virus has spread more widely than was earlier believed in the city's slums, where more than half of Mumbai's 12.5 million people live. -

- The high prevalence rate in the Mumbai slums could partly be explained by the fact that residents share common facilities such as toilets. "The results showed how crowding plays a key role in the spread of the infection," Dr Juneja said. The study also found that a large section of people had been infected and survived with no or little symptoms, leading to a low fatality rate in these areas - one in 1,000 to one in 2,000. This also lowers the city-wide death rate from Covid-19. -

- With the cases slowing down in Mumbai, the survey also raises the question whether the city is approaching herd immunity to the infection. Mumbai reported 717 new infections on Tuesday, the lowest in three months. Herd immunity is achieved when enough people become immune to a virus to stop its spread. "The jury is still out on that. For one, we still don't know how long the immunity to the infection lasts. We will only know the answer after repeat surveys," says Dr Kolthur. -
So, proper schooling potentially brings about lesser and/or lower-risk spread along with fortified health in part. Local epidemics should thereby pass faster in such 'younger' societies that recover their basic norms carefully, with K1-12 roles operating as a kind of epidemiological backstop.

Last edited by FlitBen; Aug 12, 2020 at 6:20 am
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Old Aug 12, 2020, 2:26 am
  #5951  
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My COVID-19


On my second-to-last day in the hospital, I felt a sudden, unexplainable fatigue—nothing else. I finished work, asked the resident to page me with updates, and left early. The next morning, I awoke with a fever, sweats, headache, and mild cough. Not surprisingly, I tested positive for COVID-19. At the testing site, I became confused when someone asked for my address and insurance. Upon my return home, I isolated myself from my family in my bedroom. That was the last time I left my bedroom for 4 weeks.

I became so ill. I had drenching sweats, shortness of breath, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, and incontinence. I experienced confusion—or, more aptly, bouts of delirium. I could not remember how to open my phone. I had hallucinations of lizards crawling on my wall, so I kept my eyes closed. I knew I was dehydrated, with peeling lips and a bone-dry cotton mouth. My husband kept glasses of Gatorade by the bed and brought Tylenol at regular intervals; I did not eat for 5 days. I kept in the prone position as much as possible, something I remembered from the wards. I realize now that my judgment was impaired and that, during this worst time, I should have sought medical attention instead of reassuring my husband that I was okay.

The most distressing symptom for me was the horrible odor emanating from my skin, sweat, breath, and urine. It was nauseating and horrid, and I will never forget it. It reminded me of rotting reptile flesh.

After the worst phase, I was so weak I could not ambulate or shower without help. I was sleeping 18 hours a day, and my head was in a fog the other hours. I had lost 10 pounds.

Once, I fell out of bed, contusing my hip and head. I was terrified of being alone but even more terrified of infecting my family, so I enforced isolation as much as possible.

I had dreams and visions of my inpatient service: scores of dead COVID-19 patients being taken down the utility elevator to the morgue and the seemingly nonstop overhead pages of “rapid response team and code blue.” My mind replayed colleagues describing the agonizing and isolating deaths of so many patients.

My recovery has been steady but slow. Now, more than 2 months after becoming infected, I am still fatigued and have dyspnea with exertion and musculoskeletal pain. My husband bought a recliner chair to put beside the bed where I have spent countless days. I am in the process of further testing and physical therapy.

My brain is not working at 100%, and I still find myself with lapses. I initially couldn't remember passwords to my computer and had them reset. I recently panicked when a pharmacist asked for my DEA number—it was as if it had been completely wiped from my brain. COVID-19 is a mean and humbling illness. We do not yet know the long-term effects.
https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/full...ournalCode=aim

Records of a doctor in Boston affected by COVID-19. This is a mild case, the sort of being just a simple number in the stats as mild cases and then recovered 14 days later once the PCR test came back negative.
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Old Aug 12, 2020, 2:34 am
  #5952  
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Concerning the myths that young people has nothing to fear:
[In the US]Through July, about 3,800 people in the United States in the age group had died from coronavirus, according to figures published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That would make the coronavirus one of the leading causes of death for this age group, roughly comparable to the number of younger people who were murdered over the same time period in recent years.

And these figures include only deaths officially attributed to the virus. The overall death count in the U.S. is far higher than normal this year, suggesting that the virus’s toll is even greater than the official numbers show. More than 96,000 people age 25-44 have died so far this year, compared with an average of 78,000 at this point over the previous five years.
(emphasis mine)

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/11/u...onal&smtyp=cur

So in the US excess mortality for 25-44 yo is around 18 000 people. making COVID-19 the highest cause of death for this age group, in front of car accidents.
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Old Aug 12, 2020, 2:37 am
  #5953  
 
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Excess mortality does not equal Covid-19 deaths. We saw major changes to people's lifestyle due to various government and social restrictions, which will also have an impact. In many locations, access to health care has been restricted during the pandemic. It's not that simple.
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Old Aug 12, 2020, 3:32 am
  #5954  
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No it is not however it is the current gold standard to measure them and make comparisons. Also the restrictions and associated lifestyle changes means some cause of deaths decreases significantly: road accident, crime, suicide (and those we know, this is not speculation). So it is not that simple but your argument itself is too simple.
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Old Aug 12, 2020, 6:41 am
  #5955  
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Originally Posted by FlitBen
The more fortunate will find themselves in communities that have developed preventive if mysterious practices of some sort.
You mean like the mysterious practice of good hygiene?
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