This is not about fear-mongering or panic...at least not from my perspective. I'm actually not panicked at all. I am, however, concerned. The reason being that we actually have a choice to mitigate this thing or not. If the sun was about to go supernova (not withstanding it's not massive enough)..but you get the drift: an inevitable calamity over which we have zero control and whose path we cannot alter in any way, then I would be first in line to take my family on as many 'trips of a lifetime', and actually, the bargain prices are irrelevant. And I don't mean Armagaddon only scenarios: this is NOT, as I've said plenty of times, an existential threat. Humanity will come through: some of our institutions may be severely damaged causing massive harm, depending on the path we choose...

In fact, if what we are seeing in Asia vs. Europe/US is anything to go by, a full-on pandemic may not be inevitable at all (although I'm more cautious about that since I think there are still multiple pockets of cases that just aren't being counted). But certainly, it seems that by strong measures, we can appreciably mitigate the growth/ expansion rate of cases...and thereby help protect our healthcare infrastructure. This can't be achieved solely by government regulation: in Iran, when the gov initially broke the news about COVID-19 and shut down some schools/ work, everyone immediately packed their suitcases to vacation near the Caspian -- and generated an outbreak hotspot there! Our personal actions CAN influence how this plays out.

But unfortunately, this thread has become polarized: I don't know why. Surely, we should all be watching developments, and then responding nimbly to what direction we can best serve our society...at the very beginning of COVID-19, I said that travel restrictions would be minimally effective, because we knew that they don't work well with influenza...I was wrong: this is somewhat different to influenza: it seems transmission is more than influenza in the absence of social distancing, but actually lower than influenza in the presence of social distancing. I was very skeptical that China could control the outbreak in Wuhan, again I was wrong. But you know what, these strong measures bring us a glimmer of hope. We can throw it away on principle whilst crying out about personal liberty being the most important thing ever...we will all sow what we reap, but collectively, as a global society.

tb

and for cruisers who are leaving from Florida, Port Everglades.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireSt...ngers-69502457

Google is your friend. AUS is all about events. Sorry should have put this upthread.

https://do512.com/venues/abia-austin...tional-airport

I�m really thinking that universities, particularly ones with high residential living and communal eating facilities, need to move to a remote learning model. Spring breaks will mean a lot of travel for students and a lot of exposure to a lot of people and places. Returning to dorm life with all that exposure seems very risky.

Some discussion of comorbidities risk, including a reference to a new study that seems to suggest that patients are contagious between 8-37 days?
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/med...?ocid=primentp

Everyday more and more universities are making this decision and are prepping behind the scenes to move education online, at least temporarily or for as long as needed.

Infection numbers are increasing substantially in the 4 largest European countries (Italy, Spain, France, and Germany), and in the US, as more testing being conducted....

OK, I googled and found this schedule:

http://www.austintexas.gov/sites/def...c_schedule.pdf

How big are the venues given that they appear to be available to ticketed customers only? It's been more than a decade since I traveled through AUS. At PDX we have local musicians entertaining the crowds walking by, but it's not really a situation that requires cancellation due to a 2500 people maximum rule.

US Coronavirus briefing right now live..Full video below:

I wouldn't call that hoarding, but rather sensible preparations. People with risk factors associated with increased mortality need to be able to reduce their social activity for their own safety (which includes shopping trips) if the virus begins to spread widely in their community - and everyone needs to have enough food and supplies to be able to make it through a 2-3 week quarantine. (Note: that doesn't mean you have to buy 500 rolls of toilet paper or multiple cases of bottled water!)

I am very curious to see what they do for lab courses. There are also a lot of grad students running experiments that can't easily just shut them down and leave without losing tremendous amounts of research time.

And one reason timely and accurate testing is so important is that different levels of infection (sporadic cases versus early community spread versus widespread community transmission) may need different responses, and different locations in the US may be able to safely take different measures. The measures needed to get control of the situation in Seattle may be complete overkill for Rapid City SD. But without good data on where the infections are and how fast the disease is spreading, state and local officials are forced to guess about when to implement measures such as banning large public gatherings and closing schools.

They are not closing labs, the universities themselves stay open and research continues normally, just the classes are moving online. The goal is to avoid student congregation in classrooms and elsewhere.

So, the gist of the briefing was that the risk to the average American has gone from "low" to "relatively low", and next week it will be moderate.

Fauci also talked about thinking not where the puck is now but where it will be, but it seems to me that we currently are behind even where the puck has been....

But there is definitely some (slow) progress in the response...

Most seem to be short of details on the "elsewhere" part. There are frequently bacterial outbreaks like meningitis at college campuses and those are not exacerbated by live classes, but by dorm living. Things spread pretty quickly in dorms, quicker than in college classrooms. A dorm might not be much different from a cruise ship. Few university press releases that mention curbing classes mention the same degree of concern over dorm life. It kind of makes them look like protecting the faculty from the students is more important than protecting the students from each other.

I'll gladly have my college students finish this semester at home online, but I want a refund of that overpriced room and board to happen as soon as he turns in his key.

This is a superb set of presentations at CROI (an HIV meeting that went virtual due to COVID-19) from earlier today.

There are several presentations: the first couple (about 25 minutes) and Tony Fauci's (at the 1hr mark) are probably the most interesting for lay audiences.

The very early part of the first presentation had a little political propoganda overtones in first couple of slides, but was very interesting thereafter...

Some interesting highlights, which I think have important implications:

a) In COVID-19, viral shedding is highest at onset of symptoms, i.e. just before you have symptoms and shortly thereafter. Why is this important? It could be that to radically interrupt transmission, if _everyone_ wears masks, i.e. all well people, that may have major impact. Certainly, this occurred in China, and in East Asia in general. I am coming to the opinion we do need to roll this out in Europe/US but with mask re-use for general public.

b) Of the 80% 'mild' cases in China, actually half of them had mild pneumonia, that may still need slight element of supportive treatment, i.e. oxygen...this has ENORMOUS implications for healthcare infrastructure.

c) People can progress from mild to moderate to severe to critical/death, but it's relatively rare...

d) there was some conflicting evidence on proportion of cases that are truly asymptomatic: the Chinese experience suggests no real asymptomatic cases, since those initially asymptomatic, 75% go on to develop symptoms.

e) Chinese modelling suggest (but no strong evidence actually offered) that without their severe measures, there would be 1M cases in China by early March: certainly my own limited projections would support that.

f) transmission is mostly from close contacts...

tb