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Coronavirus / COVID-19 : general fact-based reporting
#9496
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: Between Seas
Posts: 4,741
A top scientist questioned virus lockdowns on Fox News. The backlash was fierce.
- Based on their results, they estimated that the county probably had more than 50 times the 1,000 cases that had been officially reported. The finding, if correct, meant some influential estimates of the virus’s lethality had been exaggerated. The Stanford paper estimated a mortality rate among the infected of 0.2 percent or less — well below the 0.9 percent figure used in a widely reported Imperial College London study that helped shape lockdown policies –
- Administrators at the Stanford School of Medicine launched a fact-finding review, which uncovered “no evidence that any of the study funders influenced the design, execution, or reporting of the study,” according to documents reviewed by The Washington Post. But the review did conclude that funders’ involvement could “suggest an apparent conflict of interest in the public mind,” and it faulted the authors for shortcomings in other areas, such as the Facebook ads they used to recruit test subjects and insufficient oversight of the volunteers who collected blood samples.
Ioannidis and his co-authors corrected and revised some calculations in the paper after it was made public, a not uncommon practice for studies posted online before peer review. But they stood by their results, which would prove to be within the range of figures observed in other states and countries. (The infection fatality rate differs from the case fatality rate, which measures mortality only among confirmed cases. Because cases have been undercounted at every stage of the pandemic, the infection fatality rate is usually the lower of the two numbers.) “That’s exactly the way that science should work,” Ioannidis declared. –
- Based on their results, they estimated that the county probably had more than 50 times the 1,000 cases that had been officially reported. The finding, if correct, meant some influential estimates of the virus’s lethality had been exaggerated. The Stanford paper estimated a mortality rate among the infected of 0.2 percent or less — well below the 0.9 percent figure used in a widely reported Imperial College London study that helped shape lockdown policies –
- Administrators at the Stanford School of Medicine launched a fact-finding review, which uncovered “no evidence that any of the study funders influenced the design, execution, or reporting of the study,” according to documents reviewed by The Washington Post. But the review did conclude that funders’ involvement could “suggest an apparent conflict of interest in the public mind,” and it faulted the authors for shortcomings in other areas, such as the Facebook ads they used to recruit test subjects and insufficient oversight of the volunteers who collected blood samples.
Ioannidis and his co-authors corrected and revised some calculations in the paper after it was made public, a not uncommon practice for studies posted online before peer review. But they stood by their results, which would prove to be within the range of figures observed in other states and countries. (The infection fatality rate differs from the case fatality rate, which measures mortality only among confirmed cases. Because cases have been undercounted at every stage of the pandemic, the infection fatality rate is usually the lower of the two numbers.) “That’s exactly the way that science should work,” Ioannidis declared. –
The presumed “discredited” yet CDC-aligned study.
COVID-19 antibody seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California
Background. Measuring the seroprevalence of antibodies to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is central to understanding infection risk and fatality rates. We studied Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)-antibody seroprevalence in a community sample drawn from Santa Clara County. –
Background. Measuring the seroprevalence of antibodies to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is central to understanding infection risk and fatality rates. We studied Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)-antibody seroprevalence in a community sample drawn from Santa Clara County. –
- Seroprevalence studies of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) provide estimates of the extent of infection that are more representative of true transmission than indicated by case numbers.
- In late March 2020, the seroprevalence of antibodies to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Santa Clara County, California was estimated at 2.8% [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3–4.2%] after weighting for county demographics and adjusting for test performance (1.5% unadjusted, 95% CI 1.1–2.0%).
- These prevalence point estimates imply that 53 000 (95% CI 26 000 to 82 000 using weighted prevalence) people were infected in Santa Clara County by late March—many more than the ∼1200 confirmed cases at the time.
- Using the estimated number of infections and the deaths in Santa Clara County at the time, we estimate a local infection fatality rate of 0.17%.
It would be best to reconsider such ungrounded claims, especially as other range estimates are available in the bulletin content and related journals.
Last edited by FlitBen; Sep 23, 2021 at 8:51 am
#9497
Join Date: May 2000
Location: IAH
Programs: UA 1K 2.7MM, Marriott Titanium/LT Plat, IHG Spire
Posts: 3,317
Are there any published, peer-reviewed studies out there showing whether Delta is more deadly to kids, particularly those age 5-15? I am on a board of a PTO at a school and there is fierce debate whether it is irresponsible to have a socially distanced, masked, outdoor "fall fest" for the children in the school. One individual seems to claim that the risk is far, far greater than realized. Just looking for actual facts.
#9498
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: not far from MUC
Posts: 6,620
Are there any published, peer-reviewed studies out there showing whether Delta is more deadly to kids, particularly those age 5-15? I am on a board of a PTO at a school and there is fierce debate whether it is irresponsible to have a socially distanced, masked, outdoor "fall fest" for the children in the school. One individual seems to claim that the risk is far, far greater than realized. Just looking for actual facts.
Deaths from COVID ‘incredibly rare’ among children
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01897-w
Children Have ‘Extremely Low’ Risk Of Death And Hospitalization From Covid, Large U.K. Study Shows
https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberth...k-study-shows/
Covid: Children's extremely low risk confirmed by study
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57766717
Since then there have been loads of articles about Delta in the media about it being worse particularly for kids, so it's not really surprising you have parents worrying. That's what [some] parents do I really don't envy your task...
Delta is more deadly than experts hoped — and future forecasts on the pandemic are going to change
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-...eaks/100477998
"Canadian research into COVID-19 variants found a person with Delta is almost twice as likely as someone with the Alpha variant to be hospitalised. They are one-and-a-half times as likely to die."
However, if the risk of death was previously two in a million with Alpha, and it's now twice (or one and a half times) as bad with Delta ... it's still very, very, very unlikely.
I doubt you'll convince the paranoid parents. Good luck holding your fall fest!
#9499
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: NY Metro Area
Programs: AA 2MM Yay!, UA MM, Costco General Member
Posts: 49,038
The following studies from earlier from this summer from the UK were all pre-Delta, as far as I'm aware.
Deaths from COVID ‘incredibly rare’ among children
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01897-w
Children Have ‘Extremely Low’ Risk Of Death And Hospitalization From Covid, Large U.K. Study Shows
https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberth...k-study-shows/
Covid: Children's extremely low risk confirmed by study
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57766717
Since then there have been loads of articles about Delta in the media about it being worse particularly for kids, so it's not really surprising you have parents worrying. That's what [some] parents do I really don't envy your task...
Delta is more deadly than experts hoped — and future forecasts on the pandemic are going to change
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-...eaks/100477998
"Canadian research into COVID-19 variants found a person with Delta is almost twice as likely as someone with the Alpha variant to be hospitalised. They are one-and-a-half times as likely to die."
However, if the risk of death was previously two in a million with Alpha, and it's now twice (or one and a half times) as bad with Delta ... it's still very, very, very unlikely.
I doubt you'll convince the paranoid parents. Good luck holding your fall fest!
Deaths from COVID ‘incredibly rare’ among children
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01897-w
Children Have ‘Extremely Low’ Risk Of Death And Hospitalization From Covid, Large U.K. Study Shows
https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberth...k-study-shows/
Covid: Children's extremely low risk confirmed by study
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57766717
Since then there have been loads of articles about Delta in the media about it being worse particularly for kids, so it's not really surprising you have parents worrying. That's what [some] parents do I really don't envy your task...
Delta is more deadly than experts hoped — and future forecasts on the pandemic are going to change
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-...eaks/100477998
"Canadian research into COVID-19 variants found a person with Delta is almost twice as likely as someone with the Alpha variant to be hospitalised. They are one-and-a-half times as likely to die."
However, if the risk of death was previously two in a million with Alpha, and it's now twice (or one and a half times) as bad with Delta ... it's still very, very, very unlikely.
I doubt you'll convince the paranoid parents. Good luck holding your fall fest!
#9500
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: not far from MUC
Posts: 6,620
The Atlantic: Delta Is Bad News for Kids
Wired: The Delta Variant Is Making Covid a Pandemic of the Young
NY Times: The Delta Variant Is Sending More Children to the Hospital.
CNN: Every day, hundreds of kids are getting hospitalized with Covid-19. That's not the only reason to protect kids from Delta, doctors say
#9501
Moderator, Iberia Airlines, Airport Lounges, and Ambassador, British Airways Executive Club
Join Date: Feb 2010
Programs: BA Lifetime Gold; Flying Blue Life Platinum; LH Sen.; Hilton Diamond; Kemal Kebabs Prized Customer
Posts: 63,804
Also the adults who work in schools are at risk here. There are some well known risk factors (mentioned upthread) but they are reasonably rare. It would be very diffierent in a Special Needs school or a school with a lot of Downs students, for example. Otherwise it's the disruption on education/family life/working parents effect. If the event is fully outdoors I can't see what the problem would be though, so long as things like toilet arrangements and any queuing areas are worked out. It should be possible to do that safely, in the UK I doubt masks would be worn either.
#9502
Actually they do deserve a read. Let's take the CNN article:
- A record-high 2,544 children were hospitalized with Covid-19 on September 10, according to data from the US Department of Health and Human Services.
-- An average of 341 pediatric Covid-19 patients were admitted to hospitals every day during the week ending September 12, according to data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
-- More than 57,000 children have been hospitalized with Covid-19 since August 2020, according to CDC data. Many of those children had no known preexisting conditions.
-- While childhood Covid-19 deaths are still rare, that number is increasing. At least 529 children have died from Covid-19, according to CDC data.
Doctors say it's critical to protect children against the Delta variant -- not just for the sake of their health, but to preserve in-person learning and help prevent more aggressive variants from setting the entire country back.
So is making school secure via ventilation and air filtering, as well as mitigating effort, a problem ? Is preserving in-person learning as opposed to video-schooling a bad goal ? Does it deserve not to be quoted ?
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/09/08/h...ids/index.html
And I read the other articles. None of them are making a fuss about kids dying. They mention simple facts: current rate of hospitalization, observations of side effects of the infection for some kids, impact on school and parents (including psychological impacts).
- A record-high 2,544 children were hospitalized with Covid-19 on September 10, according to data from the US Department of Health and Human Services.
-- An average of 341 pediatric Covid-19 patients were admitted to hospitals every day during the week ending September 12, according to data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
-- More than 57,000 children have been hospitalized with Covid-19 since August 2020, according to CDC data. Many of those children had no known preexisting conditions.
-- While childhood Covid-19 deaths are still rare, that number is increasing. At least 529 children have died from Covid-19, according to CDC data.
Doctors say it's critical to protect children against the Delta variant -- not just for the sake of their health, but to preserve in-person learning and help prevent more aggressive variants from setting the entire country back.
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/09/08/h...ids/index.html
And I read the other articles. None of them are making a fuss about kids dying. They mention simple facts: current rate of hospitalization, observations of side effects of the infection for some kids, impact on school and parents (including psychological impacts).
#9503
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: not far from MUC
Posts: 6,620
To me the installing-air-filters-in-schools idea must either be coming from complete crackpots who've never observed how children interact with each other ... or else from the air filter manufacturers' trade association
My eldest son had the open-windows-in-classrooms thing going last winter. One day he had to apologise to his teacher for the snow smudging his writing, it was blowing in through the open windows. They were sitting in class in their winter jackets and woolly hats!
Is preserving in-person learning as opposed to video-schooling a bad goal ?
Also worth noting that teachers (who assumed they were the ones on the front line) were not at higher risk:
Teachers not at increased risk of hospital admission or severe covid-19 during 2020-21 academic year
https://www.bmj.com/company/newsroom...academic-year/
Risk of hospital admission with covid-19 among teachers compared with healthcare workers and other adults of working age in Scotland, March 2020 to July 2021: population based case-control study
https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n2060
And I read the other articles
impact on school and parents (including psychological impacts)
At this point in the cycle, there's no attempt to preserve/restore any degree of "normal", just trying to keep the fear going (and generating clicks and ad revenue on the way).
#9504
Join Date: May 2000
Location: IAH
Programs: UA 1K 2.7MM, Marriott Titanium/LT Plat, IHG Spire
Posts: 3,317
Thank you all who responded, so much.
These kids are already in-person in the school 8 hours a day, 26 kids to a classroom, so a two hour outdoor masked, socially distant event seems okay to me.
Again, I thank you!
These kids are already in-person in the school 8 hours a day, 26 kids to a classroom, so a two hour outdoor masked, socially distant event seems okay to me.
Again, I thank you!
#9505
Moderator, Iberia Airlines, Airport Lounges, and Ambassador, British Airways Executive Club
Join Date: Feb 2010
Programs: BA Lifetime Gold; Flying Blue Life Platinum; LH Sen.; Hilton Diamond; Kemal Kebabs Prized Customer
Posts: 63,804
We can preserve in-person learning at a stroke by not quarantining entire classes unnecesarily when one child "fails" a rapid test while asymptomatic. No capital outlay required! At this point school is being disrupted by public health policy far more than it is being disrupted by sickness as such.
#9506
Join Date: Dec 2016
Programs: BA Gold
Posts: 487
Flu is going to be a big problem this year. No-one is talking about it now but they will be come January/February.
#9507
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: Nashville,TN
Programs: AA Gold Elite
Posts: 601
Novavax FINALLY published a statement today that they are applying for EUA approval with the WHO (September 23,2021). They do plan to follow up soon with the US,UK,New Zealand and other countries for EUA, EMA, etc. As a frustrated trial participant in the US this is long overdue especially since it took a gargantuan amount of effort for me to remain employed since my medical center has mandated vaccination as of September 30. The twice weekly threatening emails have been onerous to say the least.
At least I got a temporary exemption deferral due to being in a trial.
That being said, I have been very confident in this vaccine and am glad I took it as it is a traditional protein vaccine and not a totally new genre of "vaccine" which are the mRNA shots. It apparently has good protection from the Delta variant so yet another reason I am happy to have taken it. From a personal perspective it does not seem to use fetal cell lines which is important for me. Win for sure!
At least I got a temporary exemption deferral due to being in a trial.
That being said, I have been very confident in this vaccine and am glad I took it as it is a traditional protein vaccine and not a totally new genre of "vaccine" which are the mRNA shots. It apparently has good protection from the Delta variant so yet another reason I am happy to have taken it. From a personal perspective it does not seem to use fetal cell lines which is important for me. Win for sure!
#9508
Suspended
Join Date: Feb 2009
Programs: DL, UA, AA, VS
Posts: 5,226
Novavax might be a good booster for people who got the mRNA vaccines.
But earlier this year, they were supposedly having difficulties setting up the supply chain.
The company has no track record of getting product to market and these delays certainly doesn't give confidence, even though this vaccine may be a strong offering.
But earlier this year, they were supposedly having difficulties setting up the supply chain.
The company has no track record of getting product to market and these delays certainly doesn't give confidence, even though this vaccine may be a strong offering.
#9509
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: LAX
Posts: 3,267
Novavax might be a good booster for people who got the mRNA vaccines.
But earlier this year, they were supposedly having difficulties setting up the supply chain.
The company has no track record of getting product to market and these delays certainly doesn't give confidence, even though this vaccine may be a strong offering.
But earlier this year, they were supposedly having difficulties setting up the supply chain.
The company has no track record of getting product to market and these delays certainly doesn't give confidence, even though this vaccine may be a strong offering.
Also, Novavax's first vaccine to make it to market was supposed to be a flu vaccine called NanoFlu, which is significantly more effective than the current gold standard flu shot. They finished Phase 3 trials in early 2020 and were preparing for full approval when covid arrived, shoving all non-covid vaccines aside. So were it not for covid, Novavax would have brought NanoFlu to market in 2020.
#9510
Suspended
Join Date: Feb 2009
Programs: DL, UA, AA, VS
Posts: 5,226
Hmm, they should try to get EUA as a booster then to the existing vaccines.