Mar 11, 2020, 10:13 am
Last edit by: Ocn Vw 1K
In order to reduce noise in the Coronavirus / Covid-19 : general fact-based reporting thread, and to create a central place to invite any member to ask a basic question about the impact of COVID-19 on travel, your moderators have decided to open this separate "lounge" thread for related discussion that isn't strictly fact-based reporting.
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Discussion of general economic impacts of Covid-19 belongs in the OMNI forum, not here.
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This is a protocol for posting adopted by the forum Moderator team:Please follow this protocol, based on FlyerTalk Rules and long-standing FlyerTalk best practices. Doing so will help keep the thread open, and allow our moderator team to aid members, rather than having to resort to discipline.
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Please stay healthy,
your FT Coronavirus and Travel Moderator Team.
Any member who can provide a constructive, helpful answer to a question; or post constructively in reply to a member's point-of-view, is welcome to post.
All FT rules apply, including avoiding personalized, snarky, political, other off-topic, commercial, and repeatedly disruptive content.
Discussion of general economic impacts of Covid-19 belongs in the OMNI forum, not here.
Discussion and critique of political/government actions to aid the economy or which is far more political than related to COVID-19 is for the OMNI/PR forum, not here.
This is a protocol for posting adopted by the forum Moderator team:Please follow this protocol, based on FlyerTalk Rules and long-standing FlyerTalk best practices. Doing so will help keep the thread open, and allow our moderator team to aid members, rather than having to resort to discipline.
•Constructive, respectful posts, views, opinions, questions, and replies, related to the topic are welcome. Avoid commenting on members personally, or posting off-topic or political messages.
•While respectful disagreement of a posted view is allowed, don’t call-out posters to prove their points. FlyerTalk has never required discussion standards at the level of a Ph.D. dissertation defense, or a trial court witness cross-examination.
•After a reasonable exchange of views on a point, please yield the floor so that others may bring up different topics, questions or points.
•Especially important in this time of pandemic, when normal life and travel have been upended: please take regular breaks from the thread.
Please stay healthy,
your FT Coronavirus and Travel Moderator Team.
COVID-19: Lounge thread for thoughts, concerns and questions
Mar 22, 2020, 5:48 am
#1261
Suspended
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bregenz, Austria
Programs: AA, BAEC, Alaska, Flying Blue, United, IHG, Hilton
Posts: 2,950
Mar 22, 2020, 6:07 am
#1262
Moderator, El Al and Marriott Bonvoy, FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: SIN
Programs: SQ*G, Mar LTT, Hyatt Glb, AA LTG, LY, HH, IC, BA, DL, UA SLV
Posts: 12,018
Mar 22, 2020, 6:11 am
#1263
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: PEK and BOS
Programs: BA - Blue
Posts: 4,531
Here's a link to the actual paper from the publishers site:
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/...1111/eci.13222
John Ioannidis is a hugely respected voice is evidence-based medicine.
tb
PS However, I don't actually agree fully with him...I agree that measures need to be evidence-based as much as possible, but that's not always possible. I also disagree that extrapolating the thousands of deaths as of March actually tells us very much about what the final death toll will be. Finally, he doesn't actually even touch on the health-care infrastructure strain that we are seeing already in all places that have seen > 0.1% of the population infected, and that, regardless of whether we finally see 5%, 10% or 80% of the population infected, is likely to be the fate of almost every nation on earth...
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/...1111/eci.13222
John Ioannidis is a hugely respected voice is evidence-based medicine.
tb
PS However, I don't actually agree fully with him...I agree that measures need to be evidence-based as much as possible, but that's not always possible. I also disagree that extrapolating the thousands of deaths as of March actually tells us very much about what the final death toll will be. Finally, he doesn't actually even touch on the health-care infrastructure strain that we are seeing already in all places that have seen > 0.1% of the population infected, and that, regardless of whether we finally see 5%, 10% or 80% of the population infected, is likely to be the fate of almost every nation on earth...
Last edited by trueblu; Mar 22, 2020 at 6:20 am
Mar 22, 2020, 6:11 am
#1264
Suspended
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bregenz, Austria
Programs: AA, BAEC, Alaska, Flying Blue, United, IHG, Hilton
Posts: 2,950
Mar 22, 2020, 6:12 am
#1265
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 765
it’s a multiple pages PDF. At the end of the first page is the beginning of a discussion about the harm of fake news (relating to some *other* retracted papers). Upon reading it again myself I can’t comprehend how you’ve interpreted it the way that you did. In any case, try right click and “save link as” or equivalent and see if that gets you the whole thing.
Mar 22, 2020, 6:15 am
#1266
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Virginia City Highlands
Programs: Nothing anymore after 20 years
Posts: 6,900
Here's a link to the actual paper from the publishers site:
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/...1111/eci.13222
John Ioannidis is a hugely respected voice is evidence-based medicine.
tb
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/...1111/eci.13222
John Ioannidis is a hugely respected voice is evidence-based medicine.
tb
Mar 22, 2020, 6:15 am
#1267
Join Date: May 2010
Location: AVP & PEK
Programs: UA 1K 1.9MM
Posts: 6,356
It should lead to a 9-page paper entitled:
Article type : Editorial
Coronavirus disease 2019: the harms of exaggerated information and non-evidence-based
measures
John P.A. Ioannidis
This is the author:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Ioannidis
Mar 22, 2020, 6:18 am
#1268
Moderator, El Al and Marriott Bonvoy, FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: SIN
Programs: SQ*G, Mar LTT, Hyatt Glb, AA LTG, LY, HH, IC, BA, DL, UA SLV
Posts: 12,018
Thanks. A long click on the iPad brought the PDF into a preview mode where scrolling was then possible.
interesting piece.
I’d forgotten about the Chinese woman and her four German colleagues who was symptomatic but not asked. Seems like so much time has passed.
interesting piece.
I’d forgotten about the Chinese woman and her four German colleagues who was symptomatic but not asked. Seems like so much time has passed.
Mar 22, 2020, 6:24 am
#1269
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: PEK and BOS
Programs: BA - Blue
Posts: 4,531
If we can develop a point-of-care serological test, and then somehow issue a 'pass' to that person, it would be really useful to martial a volunteer workforce (honestly, my priorities are on service to society than personal freedoms, ymmv). Gosh, brings back memories of "contagion", which I took my then newly-wed wife to over a decade ago so she could see what may be around the corner!
tb
Mar 22, 2020, 6:44 am
#1270
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 765
As I've mentioned before, serological testing will be really important, but will really only come into play once at least 5% of the population have been infected. Italy will be there very soon, rest of Europe in a month or maybe less, and US in about 45 days...
If we can develop a point-of-care serological test, and then somehow issue a 'pass' to that person, it would be really useful to martial a volunteer workforce (honestly, my priorities are on service to society than personal freedoms, ymmv). Gosh, brings back memories of "contagion", which I took my then newly-wed wife to over a decade ago so she could see what may be around the corner!
tb
If we can develop a point-of-care serological test, and then somehow issue a 'pass' to that person, it would be really useful to martial a volunteer workforce (honestly, my priorities are on service to society than personal freedoms, ymmv). Gosh, brings back memories of "contagion", which I took my then newly-wed wife to over a decade ago so she could see what may be around the corner!
tb
But in the wider sense... I do worry about creating two classes of people in such a significant way. Covid-19 has captured the attention of the world in a way almost nothing has for a long time.
The difference in freedom and opportunity between the “pass” and the “no data / fail” would be very significant. Since “no test” would no doubt be generally viewed the same as “fail”, at an absolute minimum we must ensure that such testing is available to all equally. I’m not sure that our societies are set up in a way that can ensure that.
Mar 22, 2020, 6:51 am
#1271
Join Date: Jan 2019
Location: SAN, BOS
Programs: AS MVPG100K, BAEC Gold, Hilton Diamond, Bonvoy Plat,
Posts: 2,281
On a personal level, I would absolutely do any amount of service to society to regain some personal freedoms I hold dear.
But in the wider sense... I do worry about creating two classes of people in such a significant way. Covid-19 has captured the attention of the world in a way almost nothing has for a long time.
The difference in freedom and opportunity between the “pass” and the “no data / fail” would be very significant. Since “no test” would no doubt be generally viewed the same as “fail”, at an absolute minimum we must ensure that such testing is available to all equally. I’m not sure that our societies are set up in a way that can ensure that.
But in the wider sense... I do worry about creating two classes of people in such a significant way. Covid-19 has captured the attention of the world in a way almost nothing has for a long time.
The difference in freedom and opportunity between the “pass” and the “no data / fail” would be very significant. Since “no test” would no doubt be generally viewed the same as “fail”, at an absolute minimum we must ensure that such testing is available to all equally. I’m not sure that our societies are set up in a way that can ensure that.
Mar 22, 2020, 7:20 am
#1272
Suspended
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Watchlisted by the prejudiced, en route to purgatory
Programs: Just Say No to Fleecing and Blacklisting
Posts: 102,095
Stockholm restaurants, malls and other entertainment/ recreational venues and other stuff were reportedly way more busy on Saturday than anything comparable in the rest of NPU area. Meanwhile many Swedes across the country still seem to collect and wander around in family groups that cover more than just their immediate household members and did so in larger numbers due to the nicer weather outside. And restaurant in-dining traffic in Sweden may have even picked up a bit at places over previous days and even the previous weekend. There is a major decline in the use of public transit and travel and all this stuff, but the gyms are mostly still open or even reopened in Sweden.
Mar 22, 2020, 7:20 am
#1273
Join Date: Jan 2019
Location: SAN, BOS
Programs: AS MVPG100K, BAEC Gold, Hilton Diamond, Bonvoy Plat,
Posts: 2,281
As I speculated in the previous (now closed) travel thread, the US Govt has issued a mandatory repatriation for all researchers abroad on Fulbright grants. While Taiwan was granted an exception, we were basically given a “Go home now or we don’t know when” ultimatum and I ultimately decided to fly back to the States.
Flying CI TPE - ONT like username suggested. I have to buy economy with my grant but the price for full Y is within my travel allotment anyways, and may consider doing a ST DL upgrade (last I checked it was 25k on a Y ticket). Will be my last flight for the foreseeable future so will probably write a trip report.
Flying CI TPE - ONT like username suggested. I have to buy economy with my grant but the price for full Y is within my travel allotment anyways, and may consider doing a ST DL upgrade (last I checked it was 25k on a Y ticket). Will be my last flight for the foreseeable future so will probably write a trip report.
Mar 22, 2020, 7:52 am
#1274
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Germany
Posts: 3,806
Although we are now pretty much trying to replicate the Chinese formula in Wuhan.
Plus there is a general distrust towards science and technology. Even now the society is pretty much divided between those who understand exponential growth (and thus are horrified about the outlook), and those who don't (and thus don't get why there is a problem at all).
Here in Germany, telling people everyone should wear masks will get you ridiculed (despite there being scientific research proving it). Somehow it doesn't dawn on our people that "infected people should wear masks to avoid infecting others" and "we have lots of undetected cases" means "everyone should wear masks to avoid spreading the infection". Even our top public expert on the virus (epidemiologist Christian Drosten) has to speak carefully like "it is not wrong to wear a handmade mask"
Mar 22, 2020, 7:55 am
#1275
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 765
Because when we realized that South Korean/Taiwanese/Singaporean formula was successful, it was already too late to replicate it. These countries began preparing for the crisis before there was a single case inside their borders. They had test kits, they had masks, they had quarantine facilities, they had the IT infrastructure to track infected people and their contacts.
Although we are now pretty much trying to replicate the Chinese formula in Wuhan.
Plus there is a general distrust towards science and technology. Even now the society is pretty much divided between those who understand exponential growth (and thus are horrified about the outlook), and those who don't (and thus don't get why there is a problem at all).
Here in Germany, telling people everyone should wear masks will get you ridiculed (despite there being scientific research proving it). Even our top public expert on the virus (epidemiologist Christian Drosten) has to speak carefully like "it is not wrong to wear a handmade mask"
Although we are now pretty much trying to replicate the Chinese formula in Wuhan.
Plus there is a general distrust towards science and technology. Even now the society is pretty much divided between those who understand exponential growth (and thus are horrified about the outlook), and those who don't (and thus don't get why there is a problem at all).
Here in Germany, telling people everyone should wear masks will get you ridiculed (despite there being scientific research proving it). Even our top public expert on the virus (epidemiologist Christian Drosten) has to speak carefully like "it is not wrong to wear a handmade mask"