Mar 11, 2020, 10:13 am
Last edit by: Ocn Vw 1K
In order to reduce noise in the Coronavirus / Covid-19 : general fact-based reporting thread, and to create a central place to invite any member to ask a basic question about the impact of COVID-19 on travel, your moderators have decided to open this separate "lounge" thread for related discussion that isn't strictly fact-based reporting.
Any member who can provide a constructive, helpful answer to a question; or post constructively in reply to a member's point-of-view, is welcome to post.
All FT rules apply, including avoiding personalized, snarky, political, other off-topic, commercial, and repeatedly disruptive content.
Discussion of general economic impacts of Covid-19 belongs in the OMNI forum, not here.
Discussion and critique of political/government actions to aid the economy or which is far more political than related to COVID-19 is for the OMNI/PR forum, not here.
This is a protocol for posting adopted by the forum Moderator team:Please follow this protocol, based on FlyerTalk Rules and long-standing FlyerTalk best practices. Doing so will help keep the thread open, and allow our moderator team to aid members, rather than having to resort to discipline.
•Constructive, respectful posts, views, opinions, questions, and replies, related to the topic are welcome. Avoid commenting on members personally, or posting off-topic or political messages.
•While respectful disagreement of a posted view is allowed, don’t call-out posters to prove their points. FlyerTalk has never required discussion standards at the level of a Ph.D. dissertation defense, or a trial court witness cross-examination.
•After a reasonable exchange of views on a point, please yield the floor so that others may bring up different topics, questions or points.
•Especially important in this time of pandemic, when normal life and travel have been upended: please take regular breaks from the thread.
Please stay healthy,
your FT Coronavirus and Travel Moderator Team.
Any member who can provide a constructive, helpful answer to a question; or post constructively in reply to a member's point-of-view, is welcome to post.
All FT rules apply, including avoiding personalized, snarky, political, other off-topic, commercial, and repeatedly disruptive content.
Discussion of general economic impacts of Covid-19 belongs in the OMNI forum, not here.
Discussion and critique of political/government actions to aid the economy or which is far more political than related to COVID-19 is for the OMNI/PR forum, not here.
This is a protocol for posting adopted by the forum Moderator team:Please follow this protocol, based on FlyerTalk Rules and long-standing FlyerTalk best practices. Doing so will help keep the thread open, and allow our moderator team to aid members, rather than having to resort to discipline.
•Constructive, respectful posts, views, opinions, questions, and replies, related to the topic are welcome. Avoid commenting on members personally, or posting off-topic or political messages.
•While respectful disagreement of a posted view is allowed, don’t call-out posters to prove their points. FlyerTalk has never required discussion standards at the level of a Ph.D. dissertation defense, or a trial court witness cross-examination.
•After a reasonable exchange of views on a point, please yield the floor so that others may bring up different topics, questions or points.
•Especially important in this time of pandemic, when normal life and travel have been upended: please take regular breaks from the thread.
Please stay healthy,
your FT Coronavirus and Travel Moderator Team.
COVID-19: Lounge thread for thoughts, concerns and questions
Mar 22, 2020, 11:01 am
#1291
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2000
Posts: 17,425
While the virus situation today looks somewhat encouraging in Europe, it looks somewhat discouraging in NYC. I would seal off the entire NYC metropolitan area, including northern New Jersey, and prohibit all non-essential travel including air travel in or out of that region. This would enable the country to marshal the medical resources to deal with the problem, and not spread it to the rest of the country, where the problem currently seems manageable. Basically, until we get evidence to the contrary, we should treat NYC like Wuhan. The problem, of course, is that in a democracy, our leaders will dither with this strategy and probably wait a costly 5 to 7 days before doing so -- just like they were too slow to cut off Italy travellers. Oh, well -- it's the problem of a free society.
Mar 22, 2020, 11:06 am
#1292
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Pacific Northwest
Programs: UA Gold 1MM, AS 75k, AA Plat, Bonvoyed Gold, Honors Dia, Hyatt Explorer, IHG Plat, ...
Posts: 16,857
I know, right?
We all saw what was going on "over there"....and then just let it all happen to us anyway. At the first sign of this being a virus outbreak when it was obvious this will turn into a pandemic (say mid to end of January), we should have started mass-production of PPE and distributed them to medical facilities, then the public and made sure everyone understood how to wear them.
We all saw what was going on "over there"....and then just let it all happen to us anyway. At the first sign of this being a virus outbreak when it was obvious this will turn into a pandemic (say mid to end of January), we should have started mass-production of PPE and distributed them to medical facilities, then the public and made sure everyone understood how to wear them.
WUHAN, China — In the hospital where Yu Yajie works, nurses, doctors and other medical professionals fighting the new coronavirus have also been fighting dire shortages. They have used tape to patch up battered protective masks, repeatedly reused goggles meant for one-time use, and wrapped their shoes in plastic bags for lack of specialized coverings.
Ms. Yu is now lying at home, feverish and fearful that she has been infected with the virus. She and other employees at the hospital said a lack of protective wear had left medical workers like her vulnerable in Wuhan, the central Chinese city at the heart of the epidemic that has engulfed this region.
“There are risks — there simply aren’t enough resources,” Ms. Yu, an administrator at Wuhan Central Hospital, said in a brief telephone interview, adding that she was too weak to speak at length.
Chinese medical workers at the forefront of the fight against the coronavirus epidemic are often becoming its victims, partly because of government missteps and logistical hurdles.
Ms. Yu is now lying at home, feverish and fearful that she has been infected with the virus. She and other employees at the hospital said a lack of protective wear had left medical workers like her vulnerable in Wuhan, the central Chinese city at the heart of the epidemic that has engulfed this region.
“There are risks — there simply aren’t enough resources,” Ms. Yu, an administrator at Wuhan Central Hospital, said in a brief telephone interview, adding that she was too weak to speak at length.
Chinese medical workers at the forefront of the fight against the coronavirus epidemic are often becoming its victims, partly because of government missteps and logistical hurdles.
Mar 22, 2020, 11:35 am
#1293
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: NY Metro Area
Programs: AA 2MM Yay!, UA MM, Costco General Member
Posts: 49,047
Yes.
That was a NYTimes article from Feb 14. You could probably replace “Wuhan” with “NYC” and it would come close to describing the situation now or in the new future ithere.
That was a NYTimes article from Feb 14. You could probably replace “Wuhan” with “NYC” and it would come close to describing the situation now or in the new future ithere.
Mar 22, 2020, 11:40 am
#1294
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 6,752
1. 30 yr old unskilled laborer - calculate wages - appx $500K for the next 30 years.
2. 30 yr old Investment Banker - calculate future earnings & growth - appx $10 Million.
3. 70 yr old retired - 0
Life insurance is based on this premise. If you were to die, what is your value? This is why insurance companies will generally (even one's liabilities may justify it) resist offering a face amount larger than an insured's aggregate future income. And, with all respect to Judges, they don't know didly when it comes to Economics.
Mar 22, 2020, 11:42 am
#1295
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 1999
Location: Seat 1A, Juice pretty much everywhere, Mucci des Coins Exotiques
Posts: 34,339
But maybe we should leave politics out of this thread?
Mar 22, 2020, 11:47 am
#1296
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 6,752
In my view, Politics of a certain color are well tolerated by the Mods here. In my experience, anything remotely negative on the Bay Area and not aligned with the Mod's world views are scrubbed and nixed post haste, where a certain slant are well tolerated. It's their sandbox, and they're free to editorialize at their discretion.
With all due respect and all that jazz...let's see how fast this one evaporates.
PS - Or, it could be that some of my fellow FT'ers flag Bay Area negative content & whine about them to the Mods.
With all due respect and all that jazz...let's see how fast this one evaporates.
PS - Or, it could be that some of my fellow FT'ers flag Bay Area negative content & whine about them to the Mods.
Last edited by Visconti; Mar 22, 2020 at 12:02 pm Reason: added PS...
Mar 22, 2020, 11:51 am
#1297
Suspended
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 16,871
...Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin warned that the lockdown, currently impacting 80 million people, could last 12 weeks
Speaking at a press conference on Sunday, the governor warned that 80 per cent of the state’s population could become infected and offered an even starker timeline for the crisis - nine months.
https://www.the-sun.com/news/574277/...arns-12-weeks/
Speaking at a press conference on Sunday, the governor warned that 80 per cent of the state’s population could become infected and offered an even starker timeline for the crisis - nine months.
https://www.the-sun.com/news/574277/...arns-12-weeks/
Mar 22, 2020, 11:52 am
#1298
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Pacific Northwest
Programs: UA Gold 1MM, AS 75k, AA Plat, Bonvoyed Gold, Honors Dia, Hyatt Explorer, IHG Plat, ...
Posts: 16,857
Merkel is in quarantine after her physician tested positive.
Rand Paul apparently tested positive.
Rand Paul apparently tested positive.
Mar 22, 2020, 12:12 pm
#1299
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: NY Metro Area
Programs: AA 2MM Yay!, UA MM, Costco General Member
Posts: 49,047
Humans need life. That’s the issue here. Life and death. And if they’re dead prosperity doesn’t matter.
Mar 22, 2020, 12:18 pm
#1300
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 1999
Location: Seat 1A, Juice pretty much everywhere, Mucci des Coins Exotiques
Posts: 34,339
And if they have zero prosperity, health doesn't matter. Ya gotta have both. Maybe you have never been poor, but you could try to understand it from their perspective.
Mar 22, 2020, 12:28 pm
#1301
Suspended
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Watchlisted by the prejudiced, en route to purgatory
Programs: Just Say No to Fleecing and Blacklisting
Posts: 102,095
While the virus situation today looks somewhat encouraging in Europe, it looks somewhat discouraging in NYC. I would seal off the entire NYC metropolitan area, including northern New Jersey, and prohibit all non-essential travel including air travel in or out of that region. This would enable the country to marshal the medical resources to deal with the problem, and not spread it to the rest of the country, where the problem currently seems manageable. Basically, until we get evidence to the contrary, we should treat NYC like Wuhan. The problem, of course, is that in a democracy, our leaders will dither with this strategy and probably wait a costly 5 to 7 days before doing so -- just like they were too slow to cut off Italy travellers. Oh, well -- it's the problem of a free society.
[Content which is proper for OMNI/PR but not this forum edited by Moderator.]
Last edited by Ocn Vw 1K; Mar 22, 2020 at 1:41 pm Reason: See note above
Mar 22, 2020, 12:29 pm
#1302
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Madison, WI, USA
Posts: 14,162
At least in the US, science departments mostly rely on private and Fed grants, all sales/marketing adopt a similar approach, where the most effective tactic to raise funds is to sensationalize their work triggering a fear response. So, to me, it's just the boy who cried wolf too many times...
Concern over this thing is fully justified, but the panic is unfortunate, yet both predictable and unavoidable. When I read potential solutions of "no matter the cost," I'm of the opinion that we're no longer dealing with serious people. There's always a cost, and it must always be weighed against the potential benefit, even if it's human lives. The sooner we get used to that grim reality, the sooner we can make a rational decision as a nation here. The most frustrating aspect of all of this has been how many around me (in RL) are just driven by their emotions. I just don't get it, and never will. While I believe in vigorous mitigation, we are way pass suppression/containment. Most simply are completely unaware or indifferent (some are probably cheering on our stupidity here) that the damage caused by the fear or overreaction will exact a far higher long term cost/sacrifice than any damage this virus could or would have caused on its own, in my view.
PS - We have many problems, and many unknown ones will arise in the future. All these problems require resources, which even for the United States is *not* unlimited. Simple question. Are we to do this for every future novel outbreak? With the alarmingly low mortality threshold, we would have to, right? Just maybe, we should save a few rounds in the chamber for the big bad grizzly (the true existential threat, as they like to say), and not a little squirrel who squeaks too loudly.
Concern over this thing is fully justified, but the panic is unfortunate, yet both predictable and unavoidable. When I read potential solutions of "no matter the cost," I'm of the opinion that we're no longer dealing with serious people. There's always a cost, and it must always be weighed against the potential benefit, even if it's human lives. The sooner we get used to that grim reality, the sooner we can make a rational decision as a nation here. The most frustrating aspect of all of this has been how many around me (in RL) are just driven by their emotions. I just don't get it, and never will. While I believe in vigorous mitigation, we are way pass suppression/containment. Most simply are completely unaware or indifferent (some are probably cheering on our stupidity here) that the damage caused by the fear or overreaction will exact a far higher long term cost/sacrifice than any damage this virus could or would have caused on its own, in my view.
PS - We have many problems, and many unknown ones will arise in the future. All these problems require resources, which even for the United States is *not* unlimited. Simple question. Are we to do this for every future novel outbreak? With the alarmingly low mortality threshold, we would have to, right? Just maybe, we should save a few rounds in the chamber for the big bad grizzly (the true existential threat, as they like to say), and not a little squirrel who squeaks too loudly.
Mar 22, 2020, 12:30 pm
#1303
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2000
Posts: 17,425
Please allow me to clarify. When a life is lost, the true economic value of that life is based on what the person would have earned had he *not* been prevented from doing so. Considering the following:
1. 30 yr old unskilled laborer - calculate wages - appx $500K for the next 30 years.
2. 30 yr old Investment Banker - calculate future earnings & growth - appx $10 Million.
3. 70 yr old retired - 0
Life insurance is based on this premise. If you were to die, what is your value? This is why insurance companies will generally (even one's liabilities may justify it) resist offering a face amount larger than an insured's aggregate future income. And, with all respect to Judges, they don't know didly when it comes to Economics.
1. 30 yr old unskilled laborer - calculate wages - appx $500K for the next 30 years.
2. 30 yr old Investment Banker - calculate future earnings & growth - appx $10 Million.
3. 70 yr old retired - 0
Life insurance is based on this premise. If you were to die, what is your value? This is why insurance companies will generally (even one's liabilities may justify it) resist offering a face amount larger than an insured's aggregate future income. And, with all respect to Judges, they don't know didly when it comes to Economics.
Mar 22, 2020, 12:36 pm
#1304
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Madison, WI, USA
Posts: 14,162
Mar 22, 2020, 12:37 pm
#1305
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 2,281
Is being locked up for 12 weeks or 9 months as are beingn described really living though? And what happens if this keeps occuring every few years as we see more frequently these "super bug" crises, How much are we going to quarantine and isolate ourselves before we decide enough is enough, 5% of our lives, 10%, 50%? I posed this the other day, what if life is about more than just surviving? Because right now it seems all anyone cares about is surviving, even if we aren't truly living.