Mar 11, 2020, 10:13 am
Last edit by: Ocn Vw 1K
In order to reduce noise in the Coronavirus / Covid-19 : general fact-based reporting thread, and to create a central place to invite any member to ask a basic question about the impact of COVID-19 on travel, your moderators have decided to open this separate "lounge" thread for related discussion that isn't strictly fact-based reporting.
Any member who can provide a constructive, helpful answer to a question; or post constructively in reply to a member's point-of-view, is welcome to post.
All FT rules apply, including avoiding personalized, snarky, political, other off-topic, commercial, and repeatedly disruptive content.
Discussion of general economic impacts of Covid-19 belongs in the OMNI forum, not here.
Discussion and critique of political/government actions to aid the economy or which is far more political than related to COVID-19 is for the OMNI/PR forum, not here.
This is a protocol for posting adopted by the forum Moderator team:Please follow this protocol, based on FlyerTalk Rules and long-standing FlyerTalk best practices. Doing so will help keep the thread open, and allow our moderator team to aid members, rather than having to resort to discipline.
•Constructive, respectful posts, views, opinions, questions, and replies, related to the topic are welcome. Avoid commenting on members personally, or posting off-topic or political messages.
•While respectful disagreement of a posted view is allowed, don’t call-out posters to prove their points. FlyerTalk has never required discussion standards at the level of a Ph.D. dissertation defense, or a trial court witness cross-examination.
•After a reasonable exchange of views on a point, please yield the floor so that others may bring up different topics, questions or points.
•Especially important in this time of pandemic, when normal life and travel have been upended: please take regular breaks from the thread.
Please stay healthy,
your FT Coronavirus and Travel Moderator Team.
Any member who can provide a constructive, helpful answer to a question; or post constructively in reply to a member's point-of-view, is welcome to post.
All FT rules apply, including avoiding personalized, snarky, political, other off-topic, commercial, and repeatedly disruptive content.
Discussion of general economic impacts of Covid-19 belongs in the OMNI forum, not here.
Discussion and critique of political/government actions to aid the economy or which is far more political than related to COVID-19 is for the OMNI/PR forum, not here.
This is a protocol for posting adopted by the forum Moderator team:Please follow this protocol, based on FlyerTalk Rules and long-standing FlyerTalk best practices. Doing so will help keep the thread open, and allow our moderator team to aid members, rather than having to resort to discipline.
•Constructive, respectful posts, views, opinions, questions, and replies, related to the topic are welcome. Avoid commenting on members personally, or posting off-topic or political messages.
•While respectful disagreement of a posted view is allowed, don’t call-out posters to prove their points. FlyerTalk has never required discussion standards at the level of a Ph.D. dissertation defense, or a trial court witness cross-examination.
•After a reasonable exchange of views on a point, please yield the floor so that others may bring up different topics, questions or points.
•Especially important in this time of pandemic, when normal life and travel have been upended: please take regular breaks from the thread.
Please stay healthy,
your FT Coronavirus and Travel Moderator Team.
COVID-19: Lounge thread for thoughts, concerns and questions
Mar 23, 2020, 8:50 am
#1411
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: JER
Programs: BA Gold/OWE, several MUCCI, and assorted Pensions!
Posts: 32,146
Interesting new development at our local (Jersey, C.I.) Waitrose supermarket today. Security on the door enforcing ‘one out, one in’ to maximise social distancing and reduce crowding. Trolleys being sprayed with anti-bac too!
Queue at the entrance sensibly spacing themselves out.
Every little helps.
Queue at the entrance sensibly spacing themselves out.
Every little helps.
Mar 23, 2020, 9:05 am
#1413
Suspended
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Watchlisted by the prejudiced, en route to purgatory
Programs: Just Say No to Fleecing and Blacklisting
Posts: 102,095
Count on the current strains to mutate.
The best way to deal with this and the possibility of no timely vaccine on a large enough scale to make the huge difference needed before 12-15 months pass? A 5-7 week national lockdown, sooner than later, with a coordinated international lockdown too .... all while getting enough fast testing capability to do what I mentioned above on a huge scale twice in that period at least. Otherwise expect this to disrupt travel way longer and repeatedly.
There was a time when planning out (and delivering in ways on) preparations for highly communicable biowarfare agents being used against us was more central to the national security establishment than making sure the TSA and CBP had the latest blacklists in play and could get in passengers’ faces a lot ... if they were allowed to fly. Unfortunately, that area was not as seductive to the the top as the areas involving uniformed services. It doesn’t take a whole lot to figure out where the government spent the bigger money and what kind of personnel and portfolios got downgraded or moved out of sight and out of mind. It’s that kind of “not so sexy” preparations that we should have had more of as also being useful for yet another zoonotic virus on the wild.
The best way to deal with this and the possibility of no timely vaccine on a large enough scale to make the huge difference needed before 12-15 months pass? A 5-7 week national lockdown, sooner than later, with a coordinated international lockdown too .... all while getting enough fast testing capability to do what I mentioned above on a huge scale twice in that period at least. Otherwise expect this to disrupt travel way longer and repeatedly.
There was a time when planning out (and delivering in ways on) preparations for highly communicable biowarfare agents being used against us was more central to the national security establishment than making sure the TSA and CBP had the latest blacklists in play and could get in passengers’ faces a lot ... if they were allowed to fly. Unfortunately, that area was not as seductive to the the top as the areas involving uniformed services. It doesn’t take a whole lot to figure out where the government spent the bigger money and what kind of personnel and portfolios got downgraded or moved out of sight and out of mind. It’s that kind of “not so sexy” preparations that we should have had more of as also being useful for yet another zoonotic virus on the wild.
Last edited by GUWonder; Mar 23, 2020 at 9:16 am
Mar 23, 2020, 9:08 am
#1414
Join Date: May 2010
Location: AVP & PEK
Programs: UA 1K 1.9MM
Posts: 6,362
Mar 23, 2020, 9:13 am
#1415
Join Date: May 2010
Location: AVP & PEK
Programs: UA 1K 1.9MM
Posts: 6,362
Mar 23, 2020, 9:15 am
#1416
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: Pacific Wonderland
Programs: ʙᴏɴᴠo̱ʏ Au, IHG Au, HH Dia, Nexus, Pilot FlyingJ Preferred
Posts: 5,336
Mar 23, 2020, 9:16 am
#1417
Suspended
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 16,871
Agreed which is why I posted here instead of the 'facts' section.
Mar 23, 2020, 9:20 am
#1419
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 6,752
Right. When I forget the "in my view" & "in my estimation" precursors, it's customary to assume everything I write is my opinion, unless I specifically state "as a matter of fact." This nitpicking crap permeates all of FT, apparently.
Mar 23, 2020, 9:22 am
#1420
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: PHX
Programs: Delta DM, Marriott Lifetime Titanium, HHonrs Diamond
Posts: 1,336
It was on fully bright. Then we pushed in the knob and shut if off completely.
Now we are rotating the knob down while it is off.
The next time we click it, it will come on very dim and gradually brighten again as hotspots clear up and people slowly and cautiously re-engage.
But the "off" cycle cannot last more than 3 weeks. This virus is not worth that price. Highest-risk groups can continue to isolate or extreme distance as they see fit at that point.
Mar 23, 2020, 9:25 am
#1421
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Pacific Northwest
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Posts: 16,857
Mar 23, 2020, 9:27 am
#1422
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: PHX
Programs: Delta DM, Marriott Lifetime Titanium, HHonrs Diamond
Posts: 1,336
Extreme social distancing theoretically reduces new cases to zero except healthcare workers and caregivers of a sick household member.
Virus contagious for 2 weeks is a commonly held belief.
Add a week for variation in adoption by society across the board.
There will still be cases going forward, but the testing and healthcare system will have another 3 weeks for preparation and capacity adjustments.
Virus contagious for 2 weeks is a commonly held belief.
Add a week for variation in adoption by society across the board.
There will still be cases going forward, but the testing and healthcare system will have another 3 weeks for preparation and capacity adjustments.
Mar 23, 2020, 10:31 am
#1423
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: 42.1% in PDX , 49.9% in PVG & 8% in the air somewhere
Programs: Marriott Ambassador Elite, UA 1K, AS MVP GLD 75K, DL Pt
Posts: 1,086
I think the common assumption is that a person that has the COVID19 gets symptoms between 5-7 days and almost all get it with-in 14 days, thus if everyone social distance / quarantine for 14 days we can drive a huge drop in Ro and flattening the curve to get growth in cases down enough that we don't overwhelm the health care system "flatten the curve."
What is really FUBAR is that we have no national policy like implemented in some countries. If we don't limit/screen domestic travel and social distancing in places like Montana and other low count states they too will follow NYC, those states should all go into some restriction to preserve the limited health care beds and supplies.
Every country that didn't take pro-active response has a week to two weeks short to clipping the rise, they react after they get thousands of cases which means another 10K-50K are about to show up 2 weeks later with huge burden on the healthcare and risk of overwhelming it.
What is really FUBAR is that we have no national policy like implemented in some countries. If we don't limit/screen domestic travel and social distancing in places like Montana and other low count states they too will follow NYC, those states should all go into some restriction to preserve the limited health care beds and supplies.
Every country that didn't take pro-active response has a week to two weeks short to clipping the rise, they react after they get thousands of cases which means another 10K-50K are about to show up 2 weeks later with huge burden on the healthcare and risk of overwhelming it.
Mar 23, 2020, 10:35 am
#1424
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: 42.1% in PDX , 49.9% in PVG & 8% in the air somewhere
Programs: Marriott Ambassador Elite, UA 1K, AS MVP GLD 75K, DL Pt
Posts: 1,086
We have dealt with Coronaviruses before. They don't have brains and they don't know how humans work. They don't torment us on purpose and have a master plan.
This one is nothing special in terms of its lethality... 5-10x less than SARS.
This one is an outlier in terms of contagiousness, and the window it can be transmitted before symptoms occur, if they ever occur.
Lethal things are a challenge to medicine
Contagious things are a challenge to society.
The resolution of this crisis is in the hands of every individual. Don't catch this. Be selfish and stay away from people. You have 100% control over your own infection chances in the next 4 weeks (exception: health care workers and caregivers of an infected individual at home).
And if/when we find a "cure" or treatment, if the above is not done, we won't have enough of the treatment to go around, so don't depend on that.
This one is nothing special in terms of its lethality... 5-10x less than SARS.
This one is an outlier in terms of contagiousness, and the window it can be transmitted before symptoms occur, if they ever occur.
Lethal things are a challenge to medicine
Contagious things are a challenge to society.
The resolution of this crisis is in the hands of every individual. Don't catch this. Be selfish and stay away from people. You have 100% control over your own infection chances in the next 4 weeks (exception: health care workers and caregivers of an infected individual at home).
And if/when we find a "cure" or treatment, if the above is not done, we won't have enough of the treatment to go around, so don't depend on that.
Mar 23, 2020, 10:39 am
#1425
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: PHX
Programs: Delta DM, Marriott Lifetime Titanium, HHonrs Diamond
Posts: 1,336
I think the common assumption is that a person that has the COVID19 gets symptoms between 5-7 days and almost all get it with-in 14 days, thus if everyone social distance / quarantine for 14 days we can drive a huge drop in Ro and flattening the curve to get growth in cases down enough that we don't overwhelm the health care system "flatten the curve."
What is really FUBAR is that we have no national policy like implemented in some countries. If we don't limit/screen domestic travel and social distancing in places like Montana and other low count states they too will follow NYC, those states should all go into some restriction to preserve the limited health care beds and supplies.
Every country that didn't take pro-active response has a week to two weeks short to clipping the rise, they react after they get thousands of cases which means another 10K-50K are about to show up 2 weeks later with huge burden on the healthcare and risk of overwhelming it.
What is really FUBAR is that we have no national policy like implemented in some countries. If we don't limit/screen domestic travel and social distancing in places like Montana and other low count states they too will follow NYC, those states should all go into some restriction to preserve the limited health care beds and supplies.
Every country that didn't take pro-active response has a week to two weeks short to clipping the rise, they react after they get thousands of cases which means another 10K-50K are about to show up 2 weeks later with huge burden on the healthcare and risk of overwhelming it.
It is not publicized as well as it should and should be worded more strongly. We are 7 days out of 15 today.
It will need to be extended by another week minimum.
Montana is socially distant by default.
They have closed public schools which are really the primary potential hotspots common to both urban and rural areas. Universities there are closed. Dorms are like cruise ships.
They are most likely not helped by a national order, but as a learning exercise we all need to control our own space and personal hygeine now no matter where we live.
The concern are hotspots that develop in metro areas that are behind on testing which will not flatten the curve nationally, even if the rural areas are already flat and when some of the initial hotspots achieve flattening through more intensive local measures.