Mar 11, 2020, 10:13 am
Last edit by: Ocn Vw 1K
In order to reduce noise in the Coronavirus / Covid-19 : general fact-based reporting thread, and to create a central place to invite any member to ask a basic question about the impact of COVID-19 on travel, your moderators have decided to open this separate "lounge" thread for related discussion that isn't strictly fact-based reporting.
Any member who can provide a constructive, helpful answer to a question; or post constructively in reply to a member's point-of-view, is welcome to post.
All FT rules apply, including avoiding personalized, snarky, political, other off-topic, commercial, and repeatedly disruptive content.
Discussion of general economic impacts of Covid-19 belongs in the OMNI forum, not here.
Discussion and critique of political/government actions to aid the economy or which is far more political than related to COVID-19 is for the OMNI/PR forum, not here.
This is a protocol for posting adopted by the forum Moderator team:Please follow this protocol, based on FlyerTalk Rules and long-standing FlyerTalk best practices. Doing so will help keep the thread open, and allow our moderator team to aid members, rather than having to resort to discipline.
•Constructive, respectful posts, views, opinions, questions, and replies, related to the topic are welcome. Avoid commenting on members personally, or posting off-topic or political messages.
•While respectful disagreement of a posted view is allowed, don’t call-out posters to prove their points. FlyerTalk has never required discussion standards at the level of a Ph.D. dissertation defense, or a trial court witness cross-examination.
•After a reasonable exchange of views on a point, please yield the floor so that others may bring up different topics, questions or points.
•Especially important in this time of pandemic, when normal life and travel have been upended: please take regular breaks from the thread.
Please stay healthy,
your FT Coronavirus and Travel Moderator Team.
Any member who can provide a constructive, helpful answer to a question; or post constructively in reply to a member's point-of-view, is welcome to post.
All FT rules apply, including avoiding personalized, snarky, political, other off-topic, commercial, and repeatedly disruptive content.
Discussion of general economic impacts of Covid-19 belongs in the OMNI forum, not here.
Discussion and critique of political/government actions to aid the economy or which is far more political than related to COVID-19 is for the OMNI/PR forum, not here.
This is a protocol for posting adopted by the forum Moderator team:Please follow this protocol, based on FlyerTalk Rules and long-standing FlyerTalk best practices. Doing so will help keep the thread open, and allow our moderator team to aid members, rather than having to resort to discipline.
•Constructive, respectful posts, views, opinions, questions, and replies, related to the topic are welcome. Avoid commenting on members personally, or posting off-topic or political messages.
•While respectful disagreement of a posted view is allowed, don’t call-out posters to prove their points. FlyerTalk has never required discussion standards at the level of a Ph.D. dissertation defense, or a trial court witness cross-examination.
•After a reasonable exchange of views on a point, please yield the floor so that others may bring up different topics, questions or points.
•Especially important in this time of pandemic, when normal life and travel have been upended: please take regular breaks from the thread.
Please stay healthy,
your FT Coronavirus and Travel Moderator Team.
COVID-19: Lounge thread for thoughts, concerns and questions
Mar 23, 2020, 1:52 am
#1396
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Madison, WI, USA
Posts: 14,162
Deleted
Last edited by PaulMSN; Mar 23, 2020 at 1:58 am
Mar 23, 2020, 2:18 am
#1397
Suspended
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Watchlisted by the prejudiced, en route to purgatory
Programs: Just Say No to Fleecing and Blacklisting
Posts: 102,095
Let’s see how recent investments in DHR stock go this week.
45-minute turns on testing is a huge improvement over the current test turnaround times. If the tests are extremely accurate, administered repeatedly to create protective circles for sub-populations, consistently have turnaround times down that much, and the wholesale price for running the tests aren’t a big jump, then this could be a game-changer.
45-minute turns on testing is a huge improvement over the current test turnaround times. If the tests are extremely accurate, administered repeatedly to create protective circles for sub-populations, consistently have turnaround times down that much, and the wholesale price for running the tests aren’t a big jump, then this could be a game-changer.
Last edited by GUWonder; Mar 23, 2020 at 2:26 am
Mar 23, 2020, 3:40 am
#1398
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: Between Seas
Posts: 4,754
Let’s see how recent investments in DHR stock go this week.
45-minute turns on testing is a huge improvement over the current test turnaround times. If the tests are extremely accurate, administered repeatedly to create protective circles for sub-populations, consistently have turnaround times down that much, and the wholesale price for running the tests aren’t a big jump, then this could be a game-changer.
45-minute turns on testing is a huge improvement over the current test turnaround times. If the tests are extremely accurate, administered repeatedly to create protective circles for sub-populations, consistently have turnaround times down that much, and the wholesale price for running the tests aren’t a big jump, then this could be a game-changer.
The world could really use economical survey tech and this one seems to be a promising candidate:
Scanwell aims to launch at-home 15-minute coronavirus test, but it still needs FDA approval
- The test that Scanwell is aiming to launch uses what’s called a ‘serological’ technique, which looks for antibodies in a patient’s blood. These are only present if someone has been exposed to the SARS-CoV-2 virus, since as of right now researchers haven’t found any evidence that natural antibodies to this particular virus exist without exposure. By contrast, the types of tests that are currently in use in the U.S. are “PCR” tests, which use a molecular-based approach to determine if the virus is present genetically in a mucus sample.
The PCR type of test is technically more accurate than the serological variety, but the serological version is much easier to administer, and produces results more quickly. It’s also still very accurate on the whole, and is much cheaper to produce than the PCR version. Plus, it could help expand efforts beyond testing only the most severe cases with symptoms present, and do a much better job of illuminating the full extent of the presence of the virus, including among people with mild cases who have already recovered at home, and those who are asymptomatic but carrying the virus with the possibility of infecting others. -
- The test that Scanwell is aiming to launch uses what’s called a ‘serological’ technique, which looks for antibodies in a patient’s blood. These are only present if someone has been exposed to the SARS-CoV-2 virus, since as of right now researchers haven’t found any evidence that natural antibodies to this particular virus exist without exposure. By contrast, the types of tests that are currently in use in the U.S. are “PCR” tests, which use a molecular-based approach to determine if the virus is present genetically in a mucus sample.
The PCR type of test is technically more accurate than the serological variety, but the serological version is much easier to administer, and produces results more quickly. It’s also still very accurate on the whole, and is much cheaper to produce than the PCR version. Plus, it could help expand efforts beyond testing only the most severe cases with symptoms present, and do a much better job of illuminating the full extent of the presence of the virus, including among people with mild cases who have already recovered at home, and those who are asymptomatic but carrying the virus with the possibility of infecting others. -
Last edited by FlitBen; Mar 23, 2020 at 4:32 am
Mar 23, 2020, 4:44 am
#1399
Suspended
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Watchlisted by the prejudiced, en route to purgatory
Programs: Just Say No to Fleecing and Blacklisting
Posts: 102,095
I had warned earlier that terrorists will get ideas from this coronavirus situation.
Governments have got assets that are picking up on the kind of things indicated in the following article:
[https://www.rollingstone.com/politic...avirus-971002/
Can’t say I would be very surprised if some fringe extremists are seeking tests to see if they have this virus and can try to do crazy things from being a virus-positive case. Bad actors aren’t just in movies:
Governments have got assets that are picking up on the kind of things indicated in the following article:
[https://www.rollingstone.com/politic...avirus-971002/
Can’t say I would be very surprised if some fringe extremists are seeking tests to see if they have this virus and can try to do crazy things from being a virus-positive case. Bad actors aren’t just in movies:
According to a law enforcement weekly intelligence brief, federal investigators appear to be monitoring neo-Nazis’ conversations on Telegram where plans of weaponizing items such as spray bottles with infected saliva were discussed.
Last edited by GUWonder; Mar 23, 2020 at 4:55 am
Mar 23, 2020, 5:27 am
#1400
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2014
Programs: Top Tier with all 3 alliances
Posts: 11,670
Another bug boat cruise liner ghost ship is out there looking for a friendly port to unload, any takers?
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/a-...?ocid=primedhp
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/a-...?ocid=primedhp
Mar 23, 2020, 5:58 am
#1401
Suspended
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Watchlisted by the prejudiced, en route to purgatory
Programs: Just Say No to Fleecing and Blacklisting
Posts: 102,095
Another bug boat cruise liner ghost ship is out there looking for a friendly port to unload, any takers?
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/a-...?ocid=primedhp
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/a-...?ocid=primedhp
That it’s the proper thing to do isn’t the same thing as the proper thing being done or it being done properly.
Plenty of unoccupied motel and hotel rooms for this kind of stuff ..... if the government acts.
Mar 23, 2020, 6:30 am
#1402
Suspended
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 16,871
Coronavirus: Best and worst-case scenarios mapped out
https://gulfnews.com/opinion/op-eds/...out-1.70565632
Mar 23, 2020, 7:10 am
#1403
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: PHX
Programs: Delta DM, Marriott Lifetime Titanium, HHonrs Diamond
Posts: 1,336
We have dealt with Coronaviruses before. They don't have brains and they don't know how humans work. They don't torment us on purpose and have a master plan.
This one is nothing special in terms of its lethality... 5-10x less than SARS.
This one is an outlier in terms of contagiousness, and the window it can be transmitted before symptoms occur, if they ever occur.
Lethal things are a challenge to medicine
Contagious things are a challenge to society.
The resolution of this crisis is in the hands of every individual. Don't catch this. Be selfish and stay away from people. You have 100% control over your own infection chances in the next 4 weeks (exception: health care workers and caregivers of an infected individual at home).
And if/when we find a "cure" or treatment, if the above is not done, we won't have enough of the treatment to go around, so don't depend on that.
This one is nothing special in terms of its lethality... 5-10x less than SARS.
This one is an outlier in terms of contagiousness, and the window it can be transmitted before symptoms occur, if they ever occur.
Lethal things are a challenge to medicine
Contagious things are a challenge to society.
The resolution of this crisis is in the hands of every individual. Don't catch this. Be selfish and stay away from people. You have 100% control over your own infection chances in the next 4 weeks (exception: health care workers and caregivers of an infected individual at home).
And if/when we find a "cure" or treatment, if the above is not done, we won't have enough of the treatment to go around, so don't depend on that.
Mar 23, 2020, 7:17 am
#1404
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 765
Originally Posted by FlyBitcoin
This one is an outlier in terms of contagiousness, and the window it can be transmitted before symptoms occur, if they ever occur.
Mar 23, 2020, 7:20 am
#1405
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: PHX
Programs: Delta DM, Marriott Lifetime Titanium, HHonrs Diamond
Posts: 1,336
Great post. I just wanted to ask about this. I know there was the discredited article where they just didn’t bother to ask about symptoms, but is there actually any solid evidence for asymptomatic transmission? The mechanics of it seem surprising so it would be great to have some confirmation.
And in this group, everyone was tested, so the denominator was more accurate than what we are seeing in the wild in most Western countries.
Mar 23, 2020, 7:27 am
#1406
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 765
Isn’t this evidence for asymptomatic infection (i.e. a person being infected without showing symptoms, which I am well convinced of already and appears to be even more common in more population-representative groups that include younger people) rather than asymptomatic transmission (a person transmitting the virus to someone else while they are asymptomatic)?
Mar 23, 2020, 7:42 am
#1407
Join Date: Jun 2018
Location: Hong Kong
Programs: CX MPC Gold, Mariott Titanium, United 1K
Posts: 60
Thoughts on when situation will normalize?
Obviously it's impossible to predict, just wanted to get everyone's thoughts on timing of below
1. Domestic Quarantines Lifted
2. Travel bans lifted
3. Situation Normalized
1. Domestic Quarantines Lifted
2. Travel bans lifted
3. Situation Normalized
Mar 23, 2020, 8:35 am
#1408
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: Between Seas
Posts: 4,754
if the current strains somehow do not keep on mutating much, and if most community restrictions take effect globally in the next few weeks, we might see an easing in case rates after a few months. But that is a static scenario for the first wave.
There is likely another wave or two coming in northern climes with the return of cooler weather, but a level of collective immunity would be developing by then in many countries. If that happens, most community and many travel restrictions may be relaxed a bit, but distancing culture will become the common social norm for the foreseeable future.
As later 2019-nCov strains encounter more infection 'barriers' over the years, the most fit successors are likely to stay latent in human populations. They may pose a recurring problem like other coronaviruses, but they will probably remain more deadly overall.
My feeling is that, unless viable vaccines are developed, we're probably going to experience life a bit like our 19th-century ancestors did. They were hopeful and aspiring as strong societies, but individually were used to personal loss and disruption here and there.
There is likely another wave or two coming in northern climes with the return of cooler weather, but a level of collective immunity would be developing by then in many countries. If that happens, most community and many travel restrictions may be relaxed a bit, but distancing culture will become the common social norm for the foreseeable future.
As later 2019-nCov strains encounter more infection 'barriers' over the years, the most fit successors are likely to stay latent in human populations. They may pose a recurring problem like other coronaviruses, but they will probably remain more deadly overall.
My feeling is that, unless viable vaccines are developed, we're probably going to experience life a bit like our 19th-century ancestors did. They were hopeful and aspiring as strong societies, but individually were used to personal loss and disruption here and there.
Last edited by FlitBen; Mar 23, 2020 at 10:22 am
Mar 23, 2020, 8:43 am
#1409
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Pacific Northwest
Programs: UA Gold 1MM, AS 75k, AA Plat, Bonvoyed Gold, Honors Dia, Hyatt Explorer, IHG Plat, ...
Posts: 16,859
There are potentially also other factors. The outbreak isn’t uniformly spread over the country, but the reported numbers are for the entire country. It could be possible the the curve is getting flattened in the north where lockdown measures were taken earlier and still increasing in other parts of the country. Italy sans Lombardy is 5/6th of the country, so good news could be hidden in the aggregate numbers.
Mar 23, 2020, 8:48 am
#1410
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: PHX
Programs: Delta DM, Marriott Lifetime Titanium, HHonrs Diamond
Posts: 1,336
And you see the slippery slope the US is going down?
If the US depends on national data and are slow to ramp up testing locally everywhere, it will look like we are never flattening the curve even if the first two hotspots have and 80% of the rural and suburban areas never had an exponential curve at all. If every new hotspot is behind in testing, then it spikes the data for the entire country. The US is much larger than Europe but I don't see many people caring about a plot of cases in all of Europe combined.
This would yield grave economic peril for something contagious, but not as lethal when compared to SARS-1
After the 3 weeks of strict contact limitations nationwide (yes they should probably extend the federal 15-days by another week), the US needs to shift to a regional strategy of publicizing the hotspots, focusing resources there (and moving resources away from prior hotspots that have flattened their local curve), extending the "hammer" phase there, and reopening for business everywhere else. People will take the distancing they have learned and put it into practice. It's not like we are going to have overflowing bars and restaurants on day 1 of the transition. We will not behave the same after this for a while. It will be a transition, but it needs to begin after the "hammer" phase is over.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-be9337092b56
It looks like the US is committed to closing schools for the semester, therefore, we have some leeway at the margin and that leeway would be compensated for our domestic travel which looks like it will not be shutting down. Therefore, we can still get to R=1 with schools closed but free domestic travel.
If the US depends on national data and are slow to ramp up testing locally everywhere, it will look like we are never flattening the curve even if the first two hotspots have and 80% of the rural and suburban areas never had an exponential curve at all. If every new hotspot is behind in testing, then it spikes the data for the entire country. The US is much larger than Europe but I don't see many people caring about a plot of cases in all of Europe combined.
This would yield grave economic peril for something contagious, but not as lethal when compared to SARS-1
After the 3 weeks of strict contact limitations nationwide (yes they should probably extend the federal 15-days by another week), the US needs to shift to a regional strategy of publicizing the hotspots, focusing resources there (and moving resources away from prior hotspots that have flattened their local curve), extending the "hammer" phase there, and reopening for business everywhere else. People will take the distancing they have learned and put it into practice. It's not like we are going to have overflowing bars and restaurants on day 1 of the transition. We will not behave the same after this for a while. It will be a transition, but it needs to begin after the "hammer" phase is over.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-be9337092b56
It looks like the US is committed to closing schools for the semester, therefore, we have some leeway at the margin and that leeway would be compensated for our domestic travel which looks like it will not be shutting down. Therefore, we can still get to R=1 with schools closed but free domestic travel.
Last edited by FlyBitcoin; Mar 23, 2020 at 8:57 am Reason: typo