Mar 11, 2020, 10:13 am
Last edit by: Ocn Vw 1K
In order to reduce noise in the Coronavirus / Covid-19 : general fact-based reporting thread, and to create a central place to invite any member to ask a basic question about the impact of COVID-19 on travel, your moderators have decided to open this separate "lounge" thread for related discussion that isn't strictly fact-based reporting.
Any member who can provide a constructive, helpful answer to a question; or post constructively in reply to a member's point-of-view, is welcome to post.
All FT rules apply, including avoiding personalized, snarky, political, other off-topic, commercial, and repeatedly disruptive content.
Discussion of general economic impacts of Covid-19 belongs in the OMNI forum, not here.
Discussion and critique of political/government actions to aid the economy or which is far more political than related to COVID-19 is for the OMNI/PR forum, not here.
This is a protocol for posting adopted by the forum Moderator team:Please follow this protocol, based on FlyerTalk Rules and long-standing FlyerTalk best practices. Doing so will help keep the thread open, and allow our moderator team to aid members, rather than having to resort to discipline.
•Constructive, respectful posts, views, opinions, questions, and replies, related to the topic are welcome. Avoid commenting on members personally, or posting off-topic or political messages.
•While respectful disagreement of a posted view is allowed, don’t call-out posters to prove their points. FlyerTalk has never required discussion standards at the level of a Ph.D. dissertation defense, or a trial court witness cross-examination.
•After a reasonable exchange of views on a point, please yield the floor so that others may bring up different topics, questions or points.
•Especially important in this time of pandemic, when normal life and travel have been upended: please take regular breaks from the thread.
Please stay healthy,
your FT Coronavirus and Travel Moderator Team.
Any member who can provide a constructive, helpful answer to a question; or post constructively in reply to a member's point-of-view, is welcome to post.
All FT rules apply, including avoiding personalized, snarky, political, other off-topic, commercial, and repeatedly disruptive content.
Discussion of general economic impacts of Covid-19 belongs in the OMNI forum, not here.
Discussion and critique of political/government actions to aid the economy or which is far more political than related to COVID-19 is for the OMNI/PR forum, not here.
This is a protocol for posting adopted by the forum Moderator team:Please follow this protocol, based on FlyerTalk Rules and long-standing FlyerTalk best practices. Doing so will help keep the thread open, and allow our moderator team to aid members, rather than having to resort to discipline.
•Constructive, respectful posts, views, opinions, questions, and replies, related to the topic are welcome. Avoid commenting on members personally, or posting off-topic or political messages.
•While respectful disagreement of a posted view is allowed, don’t call-out posters to prove their points. FlyerTalk has never required discussion standards at the level of a Ph.D. dissertation defense, or a trial court witness cross-examination.
•After a reasonable exchange of views on a point, please yield the floor so that others may bring up different topics, questions or points.
•Especially important in this time of pandemic, when normal life and travel have been upended: please take regular breaks from the thread.
Please stay healthy,
your FT Coronavirus and Travel Moderator Team.
COVID-19: Lounge thread for thoughts, concerns and questions
Mar 16, 2020, 8:30 am
#646
Suspended
Join Date: Mar 2020
Posts: 122
The country in Europe to be most concerned about is the UK. They got fewer critical care beds per capita than Italy, Spain, Germany, or France. They are ill-prepared. And they're late in the game in the implementation of containment measures. (In that last regard, they're not unlike Germany.)
Mar 16, 2020, 8:45 am
#647
Join Date: Dec 2016
Programs: BA Gold
Posts: 487
As you say, no-one truly knows what the right course of action is. I am a little skeptical about the idea of herd immunity because we do not know what the immunological correlates are for COVID-19 yet.
However, one thing is certain. We do not have sufficient resource to implement widescale testing in the UK in the same way as countries like South Korea. We have to make choices about the limited healthcare resources we have. Personally, if I were to become unwell with respiratory failure, I would like to know I could have access to medical oxygen and a ventilator whereas I would be less concerned about knowing who is infected with COVID-19. Instead of mass testing to determine who is infected, why not take the approach that everyone is infectious (until proven otherwise) and practise social distancing accordingly. And then channel all available resources into ramping up manufacturing of ventilators, medical oxygen and portable oxygen concentrators. Because we know these interventions can save lives by buying precious time for people in respiratory failure.
But that is just my personal opinion and I know many others (particularly in the US) disagree and feel the UK should adopt a firmer approach with school closures/widescale testing etc.
Mar 16, 2020, 8:51 am
#648
Join Date: Apr 2017
Location: Bay Area - East Bay
Programs: UA 1k, AS 75k, Marriott Platinum, Hyatt Explorist
Posts: 641
How much thought has gone into the time periods that have currently been announced? Most domestic US closures (schools, bar/restaurants, etc) seem to be through the end of March, travel waivers and such seem to be through the end of April. Are these entirely arbitrary, where one group announced something and then everyone else copied them, or is this based on what was observed in China? I don't work in epidemiology, but I have done a lot of work with network effects and complex dynamical systems from an econometric standpoint and given the lack of data we have, even if there is methodology behind these timings the error bars must be huge!
My entirely selfish motivation behind this line of thought, I have a mid-May trip to Greenland and the Faroes planned and I'll be really sad if I have to cancel it. I'm trying to estimate the probability of that happening so I can brace myself now
My entirely selfish motivation behind this line of thought, I have a mid-May trip to Greenland and the Faroes planned and I'll be really sad if I have to cancel it. I'm trying to estimate the probability of that happening so I can brace myself now
Mar 16, 2020, 9:08 am
#649
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2014
Programs: Top Tier with all 3 alliances
Posts: 11,672
Nobody knows what the UK strategy is, but judging from the lack and delay of social distancing measures, it looks like a major disaster in the making.
Mar 16, 2020, 9:14 am
#650
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2014
Programs: Top Tier with all 3 alliances
Posts: 11,672
Mar 16, 2020, 9:19 am
#651
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2005
Programs: ua mm, aa plat, starriott LTPP, ihg plat, hh gold.
Posts: 13,017
totally get it. it sucks. I have no scientific background, but think you should start preparing yourself for a cancelation. hopefully, I'm wrong, but steeling yourself now is likely a good idea.
Mar 16, 2020, 9:20 am
#652
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2005
Programs: ua mm, aa plat, starriott LTPP, ihg plat, hh gold.
Posts: 13,017
Mar 16, 2020, 9:39 am
#653
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2014
Programs: Top Tier with all 3 alliances
Posts: 11,672
Gov Cuomo speaks the bitter truth right now live, and it is not pretty.
Mar 16, 2020, 9:59 am
#654
Join Date: Sep 2017
Location: DCA/IAD & BUF
Posts: 1,406
Percy, do you happen to have a link for this? That is NOT what is being reported on other Australian travel forums. However those forums are starting to become so slanted to "Stay the Puck Home" messaging, it's getting harder to discern what information is actually accurate.
Mar 16, 2020, 10:37 am
#655
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Haze gray and underway
Programs: UA 1K 2MM, HH Diamond, Marriott 'clink clink' Titanium
Posts: 1,784
I wasn't clear probably. I meant they probably want to get out of Europe before the travel ban is in effect. My understanding is that if you are a US citizen or permanent resident, you can still return to the US during the travel ban however you will have to be quarantined for 14 days at one of the quarantine bases. Certainly not fun and some people simply cannot afford to be quarantined that long (either due to work or some other reason)
I'll leave it at that before another post gets deleted for being too blunt.
Mar 16, 2020, 11:19 am
#656
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: JER
Programs: BA Gold/OWE, several MUCCI, and assorted Pensions!
Posts: 32,147
And how long before “The Cure is worse than the Disease” starts to impact travel restrictions as economies start to suffer ... especially in tourism-dependent Nations?
We are all in virtually uncharted territory, and much will change (for good or ill) over the coming months.
We are all in virtually uncharted territory, and much will change (for good or ill) over the coming months.
Mar 16, 2020, 11:32 am
#657
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Germany
Posts: 3,813
On the ground, things aren't looking that good. Bars were full until the local government pulled the plug. Restaurants don't even make an effort seating people apart (one half of the restaurant is empty, and all tables in the other half are occupied). People still go out in groups. Lots of people don't believe in the severity of the danger or don't want to sacrifice their liberties - are they waiting for triage to start in German hospitals?? If people don't heed to the government advice, we will get a mandatory curfew soon, which I am dreading. There are a lot of safe outdoor activities - driving around, cycling (not in groups), walking in the countryside, and I am not looking forward to being confined at home due to the action of clueless idiots (and I do not mean politicians here).
I simply don't get it - German are concerned about the climate warming, nuclear plants, world hunger and other abstract stuff. But here, there is a huge imminent danger and the expected # of deaths by day can be calculated using a simple formula - and it seems lots of people don't care.
And this is reflected in numbers - the number of infections in Germany is growing by the same 25% per day as in other European countries
Of course I hope I am wrong and recent measures will show effect, we'll know that in 3-4 days I think. Italy seems to have stopped the exponential growth with their curfew. Even if the exponential growth slows down to 10% per day like in Japan, it would be a huge relief.
Mar 16, 2020, 11:49 am
#658
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Rhineland-Palatinate
Programs: *A Gold (A3), HHonor Gold
Posts: 5,704
I am with cockpitvisit on this one. It looks to me that Germany and Germans are completely in a bubble of federalism and lack of responsibilities. It scares me quite a lot. In my town in Rheinland Pfalz behavior have not changed one iota, except for panic buying.
Mar 16, 2020, 11:51 am
#659
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 6,385
canada banning entry to non-residents (citizens, pr, exclusions for crew, americans) etc. whee
Mar 16, 2020, 11:59 am
#660
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: LON
Programs: Mucci, BAEC, Eurostar
Posts: 3,297
Regarding the mandatory curfew, rumour is it will be imposed in France with similar rules to Italy. Macron is speaking at 8pm in France to detail it. Wednesday 6pm curfew starts, people can shop and work and walk their dogs and that's it. For 45 days...
All that because people wouldn't follow advice.
All that because people wouldn't follow advice.