narvik

Not really true for Qom (a major area/town of infection in Iran):
it's been around 3°C to 6°C at night there up until Thursday last week, and only climbing steadily since then...

Loren Pechtel

I'd do that if I could teleport into the backcountry, but getting there means trailheads--more people than I want to be around.

stimpy

I got an SMS message from the French government on my French phone telling me about the strict new rules about confinement. I am not subscribed to any such message service so I guess that means they sent an SMS message to every single French mobile phone SIM!! That's a heck of a way to reach out to the population. I think there are 78 million phones active with French operators.

Loren Pechtel

Any word on whether people on ACE inhibitors for high blood pressure should be switching to something else?

karenkay

there were people out hiking, but we all kept our five-six foot distance from one another.

IMOA

It's picking up quite quickly in Australia, including Queensland, where the temperatures now are as warm, or warmer, than much of Europe's summer. Warmer weather will help (and winter will come at a terrible time for us in the southern hemisphere), but it may not help as much as people are hoping. Ultimately stopping the spread is in the hands of the population and we all need to take responsibility for that.

evergrn

The way things are going, I will not be renewing my UA Club Card or AMEx Platinum Card.
Hard to justify when you won't be flying.

ricardojrsousa

I understand at this point we can only guess and make slightly educated predictions and not give absolute truths. However, as a business owner myself, and someone who has been following this thread and the whole thing quite closely I am wondering when do we expect current curfews / limitations / social isolation to end ? And how?

Currently I am preventively self-isolating out of precautions for others but can't stop wondering how many businesses - specially restaurants, coffee shops, babers etc will go bust. And the effects of such. People getting fired, more economical harship which in turn leads to less consumption etc.
​​​​I understand, respect and cherish the many lives at risk with the massive spreading and advocate for avoiding it as much as possible. However, say we don't hit heard immunity until October (positive?)... What do we do until then? Still isolated and in quarantine? Still no flights and airlines collapsing? Still empty restaurants banks etc. Or we go on the street ? And doesn't it restart all over again then?

I disagree with the comparison with 2008. Either I have this all wrong (admittedly I am quite lost) or this will be worse. Because yes it is for a shorter time. But isn't it dramatically harsher ? People are going to die, people are going to face psychological challenges they never did (isolation etc), people are going to lose their jobs in an environment where everyone is either on their houses or scared. When does it end ? How do we even revive some of these past 2021?
​​​​Sounds a bit survival of the fittest (or luckiest).

Am I being catastrophic? Please tell me I am. I'd love to. But above all I'm ingorant. And media frenzy isn't doing anything to clarify my questions other than pass on hysteria of growing numbers (which anyone with half a brain can see is going to happen for a while).

Please note I am note advocating for "this is the flu", l"just go on the street and keep about normal lives" or "f*ck isolation" – and this isn't even about "when can I fly and mileage run again?" - this is more a genuinely interested question of someone that not only doesn't know what will happen (as most of us) but also doesnt have many ideas / guesses on what will happen and how governments and even individuals are going to handle this. i.e. what is moderate success after draconian measures we are all pushing for? How will businesses survive and things ever go back to normal?

​​​​​

evergrn

It does seem not many people are dying of this in the tropics, near the Equator.
No deaths in high case count countries like Malaysia, Singapore, Brazil.

nk15

The above graph is for the mitigation efforts (half efforts, basically) in the UK. The important graph for the US is in the Appendix of the report, Figure A, for the suppression efforts (strong efforts) in the US.

The report basically says that if we do nothing, 2.2 mil deaths in the US; if we do mitigation (partial efforts) 1.1 mil deaths; and if we do suppression (full efforts) we will be relatively ok, but we have to keep them going from 5-18 months, until a successful vaccine is mass produced. Figure A shows that we should keep suppression efforts at least for 5 months, but if we lift them before a vaccine is ready the ICUs will be overrun almost immediately and greatly, as they will be operating close or slightly above capacity the whole time.

They are basically saying we need to start full throttle strong suppression measures now and cannot let up until a vaccine is mass produced, or there will be carnage.

helvetic

What is the military doing in Paris?

helvetic

Pretty common. In the USA you get Amber alerts forced down your throat that way. In HK I get random govt alerts about the protests sometimes.

notquiteaff

Appendix says for figure A:

“Suppression strategy scenarios for US showing ICU bed requirements. The black line shows the unmitigated epidemic. Green shows a suppression strategy incorporating closure of schools and universities, case isolation and population-wide social distancing beginning in late March 2020. The orange line shows a containment strategy incorporating case isolation, household quarantine and population-wide social distancing. The red line is the estimated surge ICU bed capacity in GB.”

I assume the “GB” is a copy paste mistake and should be US.

They appear to use an ICU surge capacity for GB of 8 beds for 100,000 people and 14 for the US. Are those numbers accurate? I have been trying to find numbers and found this page:

https://www.statista.com/chart/21105...0-inhabitants/

UK: 6.6 / 100,00 as of 2012
US: 34.7 / 100,000 as of 2009

shallowdrift

Fair enough - I only checked the current weather. I don't think Lombardy has had an especially chilly winter either though.

nk15

Even if you raise these numbers and the red line in the graph as much, it is still very bad, it won't matter much.