GUWonder

Indeed.

The economy/money has to be a consideration, for the ability to sustain and develops better health care delivery and results over time is not independent of economic factors/constraints.

GadgetFreak

Its not equal. And it isn’t health it’s death. And apparently some people think the economy will be fine if we don’t do enough and millions die. Or maybe they don’t care because they’re just old people mostly anyway. The longer we wait the more people die and the worse the economy suffers for longer.

GadgetFreak

It isn’t negligent. It’s a statement of fact. This will have a huge hit on the economy. And the longer we wait the worse it will be.

T8191

Indeed x 2. Whilst the Medical aspects are massively significant, the Economic aftermath worries me greatly. And healthcare can only come froma vibrant economy ... not one that has seen innumerable small businesses (and indeed some large ones) go to the wall in this situation.

GadgetFreak

I don’t disagree. But we’re past being able to even chose. We needed to act months ago to limit both deaths and economic damage. We can’t do either now. It’s inevitable that we are going to get slammed.

GUWonder

Health/healthcare outcomes include death in the consideration. And whether we like it or not, making decisions about health care and measuring health care outcomes does have money as a consideration among other things also considered.

Delayed action and other related blundering is costly indeed, but it doesn’t mean that actions now and from this point forward shouldn’t consider economic well-being too. A health care system deprived of too much money is arguably even worse than a health care system that costs too much money. And we have a system that is sort of both bad things at once.

cockpitvisit

Is there any data on the case fatality rate distribution by age in South Korea?

South Korea is probably the only country with both a large sample size and almost no undetected cases (because otherwise, they would infect others and the virus would continue to spread). So its CFR numbers would probably reflect true fatality rates.

Transpacificflyer

Yes, many can take care of themselves. The hurdle is that we need to determine who is infected and we have yet to implement that process. We are late. The illness can start out with mild symptoms and then quickly, within hours take a turn for the worse. It is patient specific and many people are incapable of diagnosing that themselves. This is where the medical system has a role.

Unfortunately, that is not the sole issue. We have people who still do not get it, especially younger people who are not changing their behavior patterns, still congregating, partying etc. We have international travelers who chose not to self isolate. There are infected people who just don't care. There is one selfish fellow in kentucky who requires deputies guard his home 24/7. We have an ignorant congressman and a state governor who celebrated their stupidity by telling people to go out and circulate. When people do not listen to reason or exercise common sense, others will be more vociferous and be called doomsayers.

I am unaware of any competent experienced epidemiologist who said that we would be out of this by May or June. We had people who had no field experience in a recent severe epidemic and who were restricted to academia offering their limited perceptions. It became obvious that we were in deep dung when the diagnostic tests were not made available in a timely manner. The folks who had stop-ped the last SARS pandemic, who had dealt with Ebola were very clear with what we were facing. they were called negative and ignored.
China is having results because of voluntary compliance and more importantly draconian intervention including physical detainment. This is not possible in countries like the USA. In a country where people are armed to the teeth and where conspiracy nonsense abounds, it is next to impossible to enforce compliance.

You claim we are inundated with doomsayers. Those doomsayers were necessary because the powers that be dragged their feet. We are in the dire position we are in now because we lost weeks to prepare. Too many young people and others will not listen to requests to act in a responsible manner. People who are telling things as they are are accused of being doomsayers.
Well here is the reality from Spain, Italy and France that likely awaits the USA (and Canada) unless the people and their governments wake up and act responsibly;
- Young people are on respirators in Italy. They range in age from 30 to 40. Younger people who have chronic diseases are in hospital.
- Children are infected. While not dying, their lungs are being damaged such that they will be vulnerable to other illnesses over time. This is not a new side effect and is common with other respiratory illnesses.
- Productive elderly people who's sole criteria for being denied respirator access is their age.
- Patients are left sitting in their waste because there is no one to care for them.
- Health care workers are mentally and physically exhausted. There is just so much a human can take before cracking.
- Regular working people are stressed out and cannot function normally.

This is what awaits us unless we listen to those doomsayers.

stimpy

You've not heard of Anthony Fauci? He said we could be out of this in 45 days.

ecobiz

Well yeah.

UK health experts say that global lockdowns (social distancing, curfews, travel bans) could last for the next 12-18 months. It's been all over the news in Europe today.

And again, try to fathom: No more flying for at least 1 year, not even some domestic traveling (some German states have already begun to prohibit hotel stays for tourists, regardless of nationality.

Loren Pechtel

What costs? If he gets his way they die at home with nothing but family care because there isn't any other care to be had.

His approach is the cheapest in financial terms, but megadeaths don't sit well with those of us who actually care about people.

notquiteaff

link?

all I can find is statements from the weekend where he talked about a couple of months and then today

https://nypost.com/2020/03/17/fauci-...ak-in-45-days/

That (a) doesn’t strike as an estimate that he has developed by himself or really believes in and (b) “worst of the outbreak in 45 days” is to me not the same as “we could be out of this in 45 days”.

notquiteaff

So you really thought the question was about actively treating infected people who are either asymptomatic or with mild symptoms (beyond sending home with instructions and perhaps some drugs) ? Putting them in precious hospital beds? ICUs even?

notquiteaff

total healthcare spend per capita per OECD

US: $10,586.08. (highest in the world)
UK: $4,069.57

https://data.oecd.org/healthres/health-spending.htm

Does it matter if I write a big check to my insurance company every day (private) or pay for it via taxes? Results and efficiency is what I care about (but let’s not turn this into a universal healthcare debate; if I/you can’t sleep tonight, I/you can read this)

The big concern with the U.K. NHS is actually that it has been underfunded for years... just in time for what’s to come. Of course, it is also true that no healthcare system is designed and likely scalable for what’s to come.

Boggie Dog

Also,Take Away, Door Dash, or the like, will be in bags/boxes/containers almost guaranteed to have live virus if exposed. Perhaps fixing ones own food is the way to go for now. I don't see anyway to sanitize packaging that has been handled by others.