Mar 11, 2020, 10:13 am
Last edit by: Ocn Vw 1K
In order to reduce noise in the Coronavirus / Covid-19 : general fact-based reporting thread, and to create a central place to invite any member to ask a basic question about the impact of COVID-19 on travel, your moderators have decided to open this separate "lounge" thread for related discussion that isn't strictly fact-based reporting.
Any member who can provide a constructive, helpful answer to a question; or post constructively in reply to a member's point-of-view, is welcome to post.
All FT rules apply, including avoiding personalized, snarky, political, other off-topic, commercial, and repeatedly disruptive content.
Discussion of general economic impacts of Covid-19 belongs in the OMNI forum, not here.
Discussion and critique of political/government actions to aid the economy or which is far more political than related to COVID-19 is for the OMNI/PR forum, not here.
This is a protocol for posting adopted by the forum Moderator team:Please follow this protocol, based on FlyerTalk Rules and long-standing FlyerTalk best practices. Doing so will help keep the thread open, and allow our moderator team to aid members, rather than having to resort to discipline.
•Constructive, respectful posts, views, opinions, questions, and replies, related to the topic are welcome. Avoid commenting on members personally, or posting off-topic or political messages.
•While respectful disagreement of a posted view is allowed, don’t call-out posters to prove their points. FlyerTalk has never required discussion standards at the level of a Ph.D. dissertation defense, or a trial court witness cross-examination.
•After a reasonable exchange of views on a point, please yield the floor so that others may bring up different topics, questions or points.
•Especially important in this time of pandemic, when normal life and travel have been upended: please take regular breaks from the thread.
Please stay healthy,
your FT Coronavirus and Travel Moderator Team.
Any member who can provide a constructive, helpful answer to a question; or post constructively in reply to a member's point-of-view, is welcome to post.
All FT rules apply, including avoiding personalized, snarky, political, other off-topic, commercial, and repeatedly disruptive content.
Discussion of general economic impacts of Covid-19 belongs in the OMNI forum, not here.
Discussion and critique of political/government actions to aid the economy or which is far more political than related to COVID-19 is for the OMNI/PR forum, not here.
This is a protocol for posting adopted by the forum Moderator team:Please follow this protocol, based on FlyerTalk Rules and long-standing FlyerTalk best practices. Doing so will help keep the thread open, and allow our moderator team to aid members, rather than having to resort to discipline.
•Constructive, respectful posts, views, opinions, questions, and replies, related to the topic are welcome. Avoid commenting on members personally, or posting off-topic or political messages.
•While respectful disagreement of a posted view is allowed, don’t call-out posters to prove their points. FlyerTalk has never required discussion standards at the level of a Ph.D. dissertation defense, or a trial court witness cross-examination.
•After a reasonable exchange of views on a point, please yield the floor so that others may bring up different topics, questions or points.
•Especially important in this time of pandemic, when normal life and travel have been upended: please take regular breaks from the thread.
Please stay healthy,
your FT Coronavirus and Travel Moderator Team.
COVID-19: Lounge thread for thoughts, concerns and questions
Mar 18, 2020, 1:12 am
#796
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Seattle
Programs: AS MVP100K, Hilton Diamond, IHG Gold
Posts: 3,215
Hey everyone. So, this is going to sound extremely naive, and for reference, I am in New Zealand, one of the last countries to feel the full effects of it. But I really want some input here, I know I'm wrong, I just want to be told why I'm wrong.
From my perspective, I look at China, and they now have less than 20 cases a day. Their life is returning to normal. Schools are even reopening: https://www.inkstonenews.com/society...rticle/3075518
They locked down cities for 2 months, and it looks like the virus went away. Even in Italy, they had their lowest percentage increase today. South Korea massively stopped it. Singapore massively stopped it.
It seems that if cities/countries lock down temporarily, that is essentially kills the virus. Isn't that the solution? If we all did that: wouldn't the world be back to normal in 2-3 months?
From my perspective, I look at China, and they now have less than 20 cases a day. Their life is returning to normal. Schools are even reopening: https://www.inkstonenews.com/society...rticle/3075518
They locked down cities for 2 months, and it looks like the virus went away. Even in Italy, they had their lowest percentage increase today. South Korea massively stopped it. Singapore massively stopped it.
It seems that if cities/countries lock down temporarily, that is essentially kills the virus. Isn't that the solution? If we all did that: wouldn't the world be back to normal in 2-3 months?
Mar 18, 2020, 1:17 am
#797
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 765
Hey everyone. So, this is going to sound extremely naive, and for reference, I am in New Zealand, one of the last countries to feel the full effects of it. But I really want some input here, I know I'm wrong, I just want to be told why I'm wrong.
From my perspective, I look at China, and they now have less than 20 cases a day. Their life is returning to normal. Schools are even reopening: https://www.inkstonenews.com/society...rticle/3075518
They locked down cities for 2 months, and it looks like the virus went away. Even in Italy, they had their lowest percentage increase today. South Korea massively stopped it. Singapore massively stopped it.
It seems that if cities/countries lock down temporarily, that is essentially kills the virus. Isn't that the solution? If we all did that: wouldn't the world be back to normal in 2-3 months?
From my perspective, I look at China, and they now have less than 20 cases a day. Their life is returning to normal. Schools are even reopening: https://www.inkstonenews.com/society...rticle/3075518
They locked down cities for 2 months, and it looks like the virus went away. Even in Italy, they had their lowest percentage increase today. South Korea massively stopped it. Singapore massively stopped it.
It seems that if cities/countries lock down temporarily, that is essentially kills the virus. Isn't that the solution? If we all did that: wouldn't the world be back to normal in 2-3 months?
Mar 18, 2020, 1:19 am
#798
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2015
Location: BOS, YVR, ZRH
Programs: *G
Posts: 17,411
My personal experience working in a hospital is that the biggest hardware players are Samsung & Phillips, both not American companies either.
Most innovation comes out of academic, start-up research - which the US indeed has top-notch of, but that hardly has to do with the way healthcare is set up. There's no reason you can't save money and lives by switching to universal healthcare AND have innovation. A healthier population that can go see a doctor for preventative care and mental health will be much more productive, even adding more to that.
Not even going to bother with the "my friend in Canada says" anecdote. If you asked Canadians whether they want the current Canadian system or the US system you'd barely find anyone who'd switch. And if you're rich and want to get treated in the US to "skip the line" nobody is stopping you.
Either way, all of this has little to do with this thread specifically so let's save it for elsewhere.
Mar 18, 2020, 1:25 am
#799
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: New Zealand (when I'm home!)
Programs: Air NZ Elite
Posts: 1,218
There is likely to be a "long tail" of infections around the world, so with NZ locking down now on a global basis, it will be hard to justify walking that back in just 2-3 months when things are likely to be not much better (from a global perspective) than now. If the suggestions of a temperature effect on transmissibility are correct, then NZ is in a more vulnerable position in 2-3 months than now. Finally, 2-3 months of lockdown will be a huge effect on the economy, especially with so much of NZ's economy depending on tourism and international trade. There is zero chance of going "back to normal" in 2-3 months if "normal" means "the same as before" to you.
Mar 18, 2020, 1:28 am
#800
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 765
I was amused to see the latest WHO situation report has decided to stop breaking China down by province (fair, considering most of them have 0 new cases every day) and just have a single "China" entry, but doesn't split out HK SAR, Macau SAR or Taiwan. This seems to make the data a lot less useful given the existence of borders between these places and different quarantine rules and entry restrictions.
HK is likely to have a bit of a spike in new cases with all the students returning home from other places. I wonder if they'll split it out then?
HK is likely to have a bit of a spike in new cases with all the students returning home from other places. I wonder if they'll split it out then?
Mar 18, 2020, 1:32 am
#801
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 765
- solvent airlines
- solvent airports
- political will to remove travel restrictions (which requires close to zero chance of getting destroyed by the public/press later for it turning out to have been a bad decision)
- enough people who desire to travel to justify routes
- enough people who have the money to travel to justify routes
Some of the decisions being made now may cause some of these necessary factors to be absent for more than 2-3 months.
Mar 18, 2020, 2:18 am
#802
Suspended
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 2,246
Is CV-19 Force Majeure?
Force Majeure is often mentioned in agreements/ contracts/ insurance policies.
Are any insurers resisting payouts for cancelled holidays saying it’s not Force Majeure?
Are any insurers resisting payouts for cancelled holidays saying it’s not Force Majeure?
Mar 18, 2020, 3:06 am
#803
Suspended
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Watchlisted by the prejudiced, en route to purgatory
Programs: Just Say No to Fleecing and Blacklisting
Posts: 102,095
Kids are costly -- at least for people in societies where kids aren't considered available child labor resources to put food on the table, a roof over the family's head and maybe even buy a cheap phone for the family.
Take the typical Scandinavian country going into lock-down of sorts. The financial cost of the lock-down now is already substantial -- and it's about to get much bigger. 8-12 months from now, if there is a new wave of children born from couples in lock-down, then it's going to give rise to a wave of additional costs that will last another 15-25 years at the very least. The baby boom might turn out to be a net positive in 50 years in such country, but it's going to be costly as the parental leave costs increase, the day care and educational establishment costs increase, and as the related medical care costs for such children increase and hit sooner than later. And that's just the costs on the government side. It's not like parents don't also have to pay for the upkeep and development of children beyond that. Maybe this should be considered a form of economic stimulus launched by a baby boom.
Take the typical Scandinavian country going into lock-down of sorts. The financial cost of the lock-down now is already substantial -- and it's about to get much bigger. 8-12 months from now, if there is a new wave of children born from couples in lock-down, then it's going to give rise to a wave of additional costs that will last another 15-25 years at the very least. The baby boom might turn out to be a net positive in 50 years in such country, but it's going to be costly as the parental leave costs increase, the day care and educational establishment costs increase, and as the related medical care costs for such children increase and hit sooner than later. And that's just the costs on the government side. It's not like parents don't also have to pay for the upkeep and development of children beyond that. Maybe this should be considered a form of economic stimulus launched by a baby boom.
Mar 18, 2020, 3:09 am
#804
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 765
Historically the baby boom arrived c. 9 months after the end of a period of extreme stress, not the beginning.
Mar 18, 2020, 3:14 am
#805
Suspended
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Watchlisted by the prejudiced, en route to purgatory
Programs: Just Say No to Fleecing and Blacklisting
Posts: 102,095
That has varied a lot and depends on the circumstances involved. People under way more than average stress may have more babies and babies earlier on than other people. Even while under stress.
Mar 18, 2020, 3:19 am
#806
Suspended
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Watchlisted by the prejudiced, en route to purgatory
Programs: Just Say No to Fleecing and Blacklisting
Posts: 102,095
I think it's often being seen as force majeure when the trip is cancelled due to a change in circumstances put in place by government/governments.
Mar 18, 2020, 3:20 am
#807
Suspended
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 4,188
You can just soak in the bathtube in your own home, without worrying about contamination by other people.
Mar 18, 2020, 3:37 am
#808
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 676
Sure, it's possible. But if it was happening on a widespread scale, we would already see evidence of it. Food delivery is enormously popular, especially in some of the countries that have the lowest case number growth, and is only becoming more popular. In some places like China the majority of meals are probably being delivered. Yet there is no evidence for your assertion that it's a meaningful transmission vector. I don't think any experience from a cruise ship can be assumed to apply to a city, there are too many differences in conditions (both living and working).
Mar 18, 2020, 3:37 am
#809
Suspended
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Watchlisted by the prejudiced, en route to purgatory
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Posts: 102,095
One of the first places Norway wanted shut down to deal with the spread of this virus: the gyms.
Mar 18, 2020, 4:19 am
#810
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: New Zealand (when I'm home!)
Programs: Air NZ Elite
Posts: 1,218
So even if borders/flights don't recover in 2-3 months due to a trashed world economy: do people think with enough self isolation ala China/Italy/France/Spain style that we could stamp out the virus enough, to remove self isolation and go back to free local commerce?