notquiteaff

Don’t have Hulu. But I have yet another link for you where Fauci is quoted as saying 45 days as peak is reasonable.

https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-n...c3ff809d5d8bf3

That was, I believe, later than any possible GMA interview yesterday. So I assume you are going to trust “his expert opinion” that 45 days until peak is a reasonable (gu)estimate ... right?

Transpacificflyer

[Unduly personalized content edited per FlyerTalk Rule 12.]

No one wants to see "financial doomsday". I know I would suffer as would my family, friends etc. Unfortunately, too many have been downplaying the seriousness of this infection. It will take weeks if not months until we can effectively flatten the wave. What we do today will start to be seen in 2-3 weeks. it's not too late to take action now, but if we wait we will end up with an Italian or Iranian experience.

Ok, there was an issue at Trader Joes. Did you go into D'Agostino's to see if they had anything. Many stores have had shelves stripped clean.

Here is his specific statement https://nypost.com/2020/03/17/fauci-...ak-in-45-days/
And again, the subject was PEAK. Peak does not mean we are"out of it".

cockpitvisit

It appears to be spreading in Malaysia with the same speed as in Europe (by 23% per day), and that's quite hot and humid.

Smiley90

That's my point though, as neither of those two things have to do with Insurance industry profits.

Diplomatico

Sort of. Malaysia has about 675 confirmed cases....2/3 of those were from a single four day religious event at a mosque, attended by 16,000 people.

Prior to that event, Malaysia had relatively low numbers of confirmed cases (for whatever reason.)

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/regi...vid-19-hotspot

stimpy

Nope. Try again. You must really be afraid of being wrong to not even try to type "fauci gma" into your google search bar. If you did that, you'd be able to hear the man's voice himself saying this could be over within several weeks. Or it could be a few months. Not the nonsense spouted by some in this thread that it shall be more than one year. And if you listen, the question was "when will life get back to normal?"

Yes I did. That is where I normally shop when in NYC and the aisles are not "stripped clean"

GadgetFreak

Well, I did that search. And I heard Fauci say it’s impossible to know how long we need to be shut down like this and it could be a few weeks or 8 weeks or longer.

ezefllying

I realize that, under even halfway-normal circumstances, skipping Phase I -- or, to the extent logical, running multiple phases simultaneously -- would be out of the question. But I'm wondering if, under what constitutes an existential economic threat, if not a physical one, the federal government would not reluctantly waive certain testing laws and overrule IRB objections in the interest of national security. Basically, the cost-benefit calculus may be that the safety or even lives of a couple thousand volunteers are less vital than speeding the vaccination process by months. Particularly because locking down the economy, and the populace, for even "a few months" may prove untenable.

One macabre thought: If those at greatest risk of death from covid-19 are the elderly, it might make sense to focus on shortcutting a vaccine targeted to them. That could allow otherwise unacceptably rushed testing on older volunteer groups while taking things a little slower when investigating the vaccine's suitability on younger populations. My understanding -- correct me if I'm wrong, because I am in no way an expert of vaccinations -- is that a substantial concern with vaccines is their potential to cause injury many years or decades after inoculation, particularly with respect to birth defects. But 70-90-year-old patients are naturally less susceptible to such long-term and birth-related effects, for obvious reasons. I think many older Americans would be willing to take a vaccine with potential consequences decades down the road in exchange for immediate immunity.

Ideally, harsh U.S. shelter-in-place and lockdown measures can help us claw our way out of the exponential-transmission situation we're in and get us back toward a South Korea-type state of affairs. The American public can probably tolerate that sort of social distancing for a while. And, hopefully, antivirals change the game entirely.

ExplorerWannabe

I suspect the ships are not kept "ready to go at a moment's notice" like SSBNs. Large specialized ships usually have sustainment and crewing schedules. It can take a week or two to ready them for sailing if the mission was unplanned. Provisions and supplies need to be reloaded, crew have to be recalled, the master usually likes to have departure orders in hand, etc. At least these didn't have to be prepped for self-defense.

I don't know how these ships are scheduled and budgeted but I'm willing to bet they aren't kept in Fully Mission Capable 24/7/365.

Keeping an operational ship ready is expensive -- hard to do the way operations budges were trimmed during the previous administration and has to be balanced with all other warfighting priorities even with this administration.

notquiteaff

Ok, I did google it. I didn’t find a GMA interview that Fauci gave yesterday (3/17). I did find one from 3/13, though. Is that what you meant when you said “Fauci gave a pretty good interview on GMA yesterday which perfectly well backs up my argument”?

In it he does say at the very end “a few weeks up to eight weeks”.

https://www.goodmorningamerica.com/n...virus-69576881




But I have given you two source confirming that four days later he said 45 days until peak is a reasonable estimate.

I believe there are two ways to interpret Fauci’s two different estimates:

1. His estimates have evolved from “it’s over in a few weeks to two months” to “we’ might see the peak in 45 day” as four days have passed.

2. He simply isn’t sure how to properly estimate it given the current available data (or lack thereof, due to minimal testing in US). You will notice that he always cautions that he doesn’t really want to give a number.

Choose whichever you want, but picking his older statement and dismissing the newer one and at the same time citing him as your expert witness doesn’t make your arguments credible to me.

HKTraveler

Incubation supposedly two weeks but HK has cases where it is up to 21 days

notquiteaff

Right, (in theory) five days according to Wikipedia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USNS_Mercy_(T-AH-19)

We have been tracking this infection wave for weeks. If you have toys, use them! As far as I can tell, no one in the administration even talked about the ships when I first raised the issue. I will fully admit that I am not a navy expert, but we are spending a ton of dollars on building and maintaining these ships - the activation of the ships, like many other measures, seems to be coming very late for no obvious reason.

Comfort is actually not ready to go in five days because they are finishing up maintenance... New York will have to wait longer.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...-harbor-135732

“The Navy is getting ships crewed and ready to launch, defense officials said. Mercy should be underway in days, but Comfort could take two weeks to deploy because it is still finishing up maintenance, according to chief Pentagon spokesperson Jonathan Hoffman.”

I suppose one challenge is staffing.

https://news.usni.org/2020/03/17/pen...virus-response

notquiteaff

Is anyone aware of a tracking site that shows active cases that require hospitalization and/or ICU? Preferably by state or even more granular (county)

E.g., I know from https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/co...positive-cases that there are 1339 positive (not necessarily active) cases in NYC, but it would be useful to know how much of a burden they represent for the NYC hospitals.

Adelphos

So in NYC, here is the situation as I see it

1) Essential employees are still at work - this includes MTA, healthcare, grocery workers, bank workers, and Amazon delivery people - this seems hundreds of thousands of people in the aggregate
2) Restaurants that offer takeout/delivery are still open - and are now able to sell alcohol - so these folks all need to be at work
3) Many pharmacies, bodegas and grocery stores are crowded when you walk into them
4) Various service stores like wine and liquor stores, dry cleaners, nail salons are open
5) No one has a car, so MTA, Uber and Lyft must remain available
6) There are a seeming million dogs, so people have to walk their dog
7) People are jogging for exercise
8) School kids are everywhere

This doesn’t seem like any thought ouT measure of social distancing, but there is no way to really lock it down further given the layout and demographics of the city - you have to keep grocery, MTA and other things open

Adelphos

Another issue is that there is a big percentage of cases that are asymptomatic all the way through