Mar 11, 2020, 10:13 am
Last edit by: Ocn Vw 1K
In order to reduce noise in the Coronavirus / Covid-19 : general fact-based reporting thread, and to create a central place to invite any member to ask a basic question about the impact of COVID-19 on travel, your moderators have decided to open this separate "lounge" thread for related discussion that isn't strictly fact-based reporting.
Any member who can provide a constructive, helpful answer to a question; or post constructively in reply to a member's point-of-view, is welcome to post.
All FT rules apply, including avoiding personalized, snarky, political, other off-topic, commercial, and repeatedly disruptive content.
Discussion of general economic impacts of Covid-19 belongs in the OMNI forum, not here.
Discussion and critique of political/government actions to aid the economy or which is far more political than related to COVID-19 is for the OMNI/PR forum, not here.
This is a protocol for posting adopted by the forum Moderator team:Please follow this protocol, based on FlyerTalk Rules and long-standing FlyerTalk best practices. Doing so will help keep the thread open, and allow our moderator team to aid members, rather than having to resort to discipline.
•Constructive, respectful posts, views, opinions, questions, and replies, related to the topic are welcome. Avoid commenting on members personally, or posting off-topic or political messages.
•While respectful disagreement of a posted view is allowed, don’t call-out posters to prove their points. FlyerTalk has never required discussion standards at the level of a Ph.D. dissertation defense, or a trial court witness cross-examination.
•After a reasonable exchange of views on a point, please yield the floor so that others may bring up different topics, questions or points.
•Especially important in this time of pandemic, when normal life and travel have been upended: please take regular breaks from the thread.
Please stay healthy,
your FT Coronavirus and Travel Moderator Team.
Any member who can provide a constructive, helpful answer to a question; or post constructively in reply to a member's point-of-view, is welcome to post.
All FT rules apply, including avoiding personalized, snarky, political, other off-topic, commercial, and repeatedly disruptive content.
Discussion of general economic impacts of Covid-19 belongs in the OMNI forum, not here.
Discussion and critique of political/government actions to aid the economy or which is far more political than related to COVID-19 is for the OMNI/PR forum, not here.
This is a protocol for posting adopted by the forum Moderator team:Please follow this protocol, based on FlyerTalk Rules and long-standing FlyerTalk best practices. Doing so will help keep the thread open, and allow our moderator team to aid members, rather than having to resort to discipline.
•Constructive, respectful posts, views, opinions, questions, and replies, related to the topic are welcome. Avoid commenting on members personally, or posting off-topic or political messages.
•While respectful disagreement of a posted view is allowed, don’t call-out posters to prove their points. FlyerTalk has never required discussion standards at the level of a Ph.D. dissertation defense, or a trial court witness cross-examination.
•After a reasonable exchange of views on a point, please yield the floor so that others may bring up different topics, questions or points.
•Especially important in this time of pandemic, when normal life and travel have been upended: please take regular breaks from the thread.
Please stay healthy,
your FT Coronavirus and Travel Moderator Team.
COVID-19: Lounge thread for thoughts, concerns and questions
Mar 16, 2020, 5:29 am
#631
Suspended
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Canada, USA, Europe
Programs: UA 1K
Posts: 31,452
Mar 16, 2020, 5:40 am
#632
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Virginia City Highlands
Programs: Nothing anymore after 20 years
Posts: 6,900
Interesting story from a traveler from China to the USA. He says America isn't as safe, since it isn't as prepared. I see where he's coming from, but I think he's mostly wrong. The reality is that, with humans, you need an imminent threat to get people to act. In China, it became obvious that there was a huge problem and people did what they had to do to stay safe. The same thing will happen in America if the virus hits us hard (which, if you believe the experts, is still unlikely). The good thing for America is that we'll know immediately what we're dealing with; China lost time because it didn't know what was going on and the authorities initially wanted to downplay the problem (as authorities, especially in authoritarian states, are often inclined to do).
https://www.yahoo.com/news/californi...173042979.html
https://www.yahoo.com/news/californi...173042979.html
Mar 16, 2020, 5:40 am
#633
Join Date: Jun 2008
Programs: TK*G (E+), IHG Plat Ambassador
Posts: 7,884
Amazing footage - drone over deserted WAW downtown
https://www.portandterminal.com/watc...ring-pandemic/
Only groceries, petrol stations, drug stores and pharmacies are open (restaurants and bars can still do take aways and deliveries). Mandatory WFH. But groceries are well stocked.
Only groceries, petrol stations, drug stores and pharmacies are open (restaurants and bars can still do take aways and deliveries). Mandatory WFH. But groceries are well stocked.
Last edited by TPJ; Mar 16, 2020 at 5:46 am
Mar 16, 2020, 6:54 am
#634
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Germany
Posts: 3,812
There are opinions out there that the virus will eventually mutate into a less deadly version, just like other viruses did in the past.
Is this a realistic expectation in this case?
I understand that "overly deadly" viruses have a disadvantage of spreading out more slowly (due to virus carriers dying too soon to infect many others). But here, we have both a long incubation time and a long "benign" phase of the illness with just common cold symptoms. Or are there other mechanism favoring less deadly virus strains too?
Is this a realistic expectation in this case?
I understand that "overly deadly" viruses have a disadvantage of spreading out more slowly (due to virus carriers dying too soon to infect many others). But here, we have both a long incubation time and a long "benign" phase of the illness with just common cold symptoms. Or are there other mechanism favoring less deadly virus strains too?
Mar 16, 2020, 7:17 am
#635
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Seattle
Programs: AS MVP100K, Hilton Diamond, IHG Gold
Posts: 3,215
I can’t believe what’s happening. Never in my life have I seen something happen so quickly day-to-day, week-to-week.
it’s impossible to book anything at this time, especially mileage runs. Traveling around on different airlines is so hard because there’s a very realistic chance one of your segments gets canceled.
I guess it’s time to get out the Netflix, rice and beans, and toilet paper and wait this one out... I am self employed so without flying and being where I have to be it really ruins me.
Here’s to this whole mess clearing up, and everyone staying safe.
it’s impossible to book anything at this time, especially mileage runs. Traveling around on different airlines is so hard because there’s a very realistic chance one of your segments gets canceled.
I guess it’s time to get out the Netflix, rice and beans, and toilet paper and wait this one out... I am self employed so without flying and being where I have to be it really ruins me.
Here’s to this whole mess clearing up, and everyone staying safe.
Mar 16, 2020, 7:19 am
#636
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 1999
Location: Seat 1A, Juice pretty much everywhere, Mucci des Coins Exotiques
Posts: 34,339
But thanks for the Finnish perspective.
Mar 16, 2020, 7:20 am
#637
Suspended
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Canada, USA, Europe
Programs: UA 1K
Posts: 31,452
I can’t believe what’s happening. Never in my life have I seen something happen so quickly day-to-day, week-to-week.
it’s impossible to book anything at this time, especially mileage runs. Traveling around on different airlines is so hard because there’s a very realistic chance one of your segments will canceled by one segment.
I guess it’s time to get out the Netflix, rice and beans, and toilet paper and wait this one out... I am self employed so without flying and being where I have to be it really ruins me.
Here’s to this whole mess clearing up and everyone staying safe.
it’s impossible to book anything at this time, especially mileage runs. Traveling around on different airlines is so hard because there’s a very realistic chance one of your segments will canceled by one segment.
I guess it’s time to get out the Netflix, rice and beans, and toilet paper and wait this one out... I am self employed so without flying and being where I have to be it really ruins me.
Here’s to this whole mess clearing up and everyone staying safe.
Mar 16, 2020, 7:28 am
#638
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Seattle
Programs: AS MVP100K, Hilton Diamond, IHG Gold
Posts: 3,215
Exactly, I had to cancel. I actually wasn’t going to let the virus effect me but with this travel ban on Cambodia for US citizens I have no choice.
Mar 16, 2020, 7:50 am
#639
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Northern Ireland
Posts: 722
Case fatality rate can’t accurately be described as “death rate”.
comparing CFR between countries is extremely problematic, because different countries have different testing regimes, so the % of infections that are recorded as cases will vary significantly between countries.
It’s highly unlikely that there is any meaningful difference in real fatality rate between the UK and Germany right now. The UK will just have a much larger number of infections that are not recorded as cases, which is to be expected given the strategy they are implementing.
comparing CFR between countries is extremely problematic, because different countries have different testing regimes, so the % of infections that are recorded as cases will vary significantly between countries.
It’s highly unlikely that there is any meaningful difference in real fatality rate between the UK and Germany right now. The UK will just have a much larger number of infections that are not recorded as cases, which is to be expected given the strategy they are implementing.
I can’t believe what’s happening. Never in my life have I seen something happen so quickly day-to-day, week-to-week.
it’s impossible to book anything at this time, especially mileage runs. Traveling around on different airlines is so hard because there’s a very realistic chance one of your segments gets canceled.
I guess it’s time to get out the Netflix, rice and beans, and toilet paper and wait this one out... I am self employed so without flying and being where I have to be it really ruins me.
Here’s to this whole mess clearing up, and everyone staying safe.
it’s impossible to book anything at this time, especially mileage runs. Traveling around on different airlines is so hard because there’s a very realistic chance one of your segments gets canceled.
I guess it’s time to get out the Netflix, rice and beans, and toilet paper and wait this one out... I am self employed so without flying and being where I have to be it really ruins me.
Here’s to this whole mess clearing up, and everyone staying safe.
Mar 16, 2020, 8:03 am
#640
Suspended
Join Date: Mar 2020
Posts: 122
It’s highly unlikely that there is any meaningful difference in real fatality rate between the UK and Germany right now. The UK will just have a much larger number of infections that are not recorded as cases, which is to be expected given the strategy they are implementing.
The UK has one of the highest growth rates in deaths from COVID-19. Yes, there is statistical uncertainty about these numbers.
But what we're seeing suggests that South Korea did a better job in containment than China. Italy and Spain did a worse job than China. And it looks like the UK may be doing one of the worst jobs, despite having had more time.
Furthermore, we know the UK has a number of critical-care beds which is worrisome. There are just ~7 critical-care beds per 100k population. France, Germany, Italy, Spain all got more than that.
If the US bans Schengen countries, it must ban the UK which is likely to have one of the most severe outbreaks in a matter of a week or two tops.
Mar 16, 2020, 8:10 am
#641
Suspended
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 16,871
I find the UK's approach fascinating and it will be interesting to look back a year from now to see what happened.
Mar 16, 2020, 8:16 am
#642
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Rhineland-Palatinate
Programs: *A Gold (A3), HHonor Gold
Posts: 5,703
Mar 16, 2020, 8:17 am
#643
Join Date: Oct 2009
Programs: UA 1K, Hilton ♦ , Hyatt Carbonado, Wyndham ♦, Marriott PE, "Stinking Bum" elsewhere.
Posts: 5,001
I cannot make any changes to the way I operate. I don't have shifts, I work from 7:30 to 4. The trucks that come in from the manufacturer with the boxes of air filters only come in during the day and customers either pick up or I ship their orders out during the day. This is not an amazon business, this is a real local company, like a hardware store. I cannot possibly clean a 16,000 square foot warehouse in a 100 year old building. Welcome to the real world of running a small business that gets zero help from the federal government. Just the other day my employees asked me if I was going to shut down during this Wuhan virus panic, they don't want to be sent home for a month without pay. I told them I intend to stay open and they will have their jobs.
My people are relying on me as their sole source of income, so I am still running at full speed but, in my situation, they can do 95% of their work at home and that allows me to maximize social distancing as much as I can.
The truth is that we small business entities provide most of the jobs in America and I, like you, have never gotten a dime of government assistance or been able to qualify for a low-interest loan program. I have a crappy Obamacare health insurance policy that costs me 10K a year (no subsidies for me) and covers nothing (it's the cheapest Bronze plan).
Last edited by zombietooth; Mar 16, 2020 at 3:18 pm
Mar 16, 2020, 8:17 am
#644
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Rhineland-Palatinate
Programs: *A Gold (A3), HHonor Gold
Posts: 5,703
Mar 16, 2020, 8:27 am
#645
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2014
Programs: Top Tier with all 3 alliances
Posts: 11,670
The US is also a much larger country geographically than Italy. If there is an outbreak in Seattle that swamps the hospitals there it doesn't matter than Maine has hospital beds that are open.
This is likely to be a regional problem with different regions at different points on the curve at any given time.
This is likely to be a regional problem with different regions at different points on the curve at any given time.
(excerpts)
"By many accounts, the United States is ill-prepared for a such a situation.
A 2005 federal government report estimated that in the event of a pandemic like the 1918 flu, we would need mechanical ventilators for 740,000 patients. Currently 160,000 ventilators are available for patient care, with at least an another 8,900 in the national stockpile, according to a February estimate by the Center for Health Security at Johns Hopkins."
(From NYS triage plan):
"The plan’s basic outlines are simple and “fairly draconian,” Rosoff explained. “If you are in respiratory failure and there is a ventilator available and an ICU bed, and you meet certain medical criteria, you go on the ventilator. You have a certain amount of time to get better. If you don’t, we’ll take you off and give it to someone else.”
(Other random excerpt)
"Some state recommendations do not set specific age cutoffs for ventilators during rationing, while others explicitly exclude access for older people, with access barred to those ranging in age from 65 to 85. A Minnesota panel, for instance, recommended prioritizing children over adults, and young adults over older adults, while the New York group did not use age as a criteria in itself."
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/sp...?ocid=primedhp
Last edited by nk15; Mar 16, 2020 at 8:34 am