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Old Mar 11, 2020, 10:13 am
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In order to reduce noise in the Coronavirus / Covid-19 : general fact-based reporting thread, and to create a central place to invite any member to ask a basic question about the impact of COVID-19 on travel, your moderators have decided to open this separate "lounge" thread for related discussion that isn't strictly fact-based reporting.
Any member who can provide a constructive, helpful answer to a question; or post constructively in reply to a member's point-of-view, is welcome to post.

All FT rules apply, including avoiding personalized, snarky, political, other off-topic, commercial, and repeatedly disruptive content.

Discussion of general economic impacts of Covid-19 belongs in the OMNI forum, not here.
Discussion and critique of political/government actions to aid the economy or which is far more political than related to COVID-19 is for the OMNI/PR forum, not here.

This is a protocol for posting adopted by the forum Moderator team:Please follow this protocol, based on FlyerTalk Rules and long-standing FlyerTalk best practices. Doing so will help keep the thread open, and allow our moderator team to aid members, rather than having to resort to discipline.

•Constructive, respectful posts, views, opinions, questions, and replies, related to the topic are welcome. Avoid commenting on members personally, or posting off-topic or political messages.

•While respectful disagreement of a posted view is allowed, don’t call-out posters to prove their points. FlyerTalk has never required discussion standards at the level of a Ph.D. dissertation defense, or a trial court witness cross-examination.

•After a reasonable exchange of views on a point, please yield the floor so that others may bring up different topics, questions or points.

•Especially important in this time of pandemic, when normal life and travel have been upended: please take regular breaks from the thread.
Please stay healthy,

your FT Coronavirus and Travel Moderator Team.








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Old Mar 23, 2020, 9:45 pm
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Now, scientists from Bauhaus University in Weimar have revealed exactly what happens when we cough, and why it’s wise to stay home even if you don’t think you have the virus.

The team filmed a man coughing using a method called the Schlieren Method, which reveals air flow in incredible detail.

In the video, the man can be seen coughing in six ways - normal breathing, coughing, coughing into hand, coughing into sleeve, coughing into a dust mask and coughing into a medical mask.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/science/cor...s-how-21738511
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Old Mar 23, 2020, 9:54 pm
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Originally Posted by cockpitvisit
Just a question from someone with no clue. Can Hydroxychloroquine be mass produced to treat everyone who needs it, or is it one of those medicines with a very limited supply and a crazily expensive production?
not aspirin easy but still very manageable on large scale...
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Old Mar 23, 2020, 10:11 pm
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Originally Posted by Lux Flyer
University of Minnesota started a trial last week look at post-exposure prophylaxis with Hydroxychloroquine. There's more going on then the news is getting. Even Trump/Cuomo have been a few days behind when they cover these topics.

https://twin-cities.umn.edu/news-eve...trial-launches
There have also been tests ongoing in South Korea and China,

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/20/211884...d-19-treatment

And I think German physicians have been trying it, too, though I can’t find the article right now.
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Old Mar 23, 2020, 10:20 pm
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Originally Posted by nk15
All the online grocery delivery services are slammed, they don't even accept any requests at all, even for a week later, nothing, completely overwhelmed. Not good.
I think it depends on where you are. And as more and more people are discovering the services (especially older people who may not have been as savvy with using food and grocery delivery services), the dates keep getting pushed out. Right now I could get delivery on Thursday morning from Instacart.

Instacart today announced that they want to hire 300,000 grocery shoppers.
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Old Mar 23, 2020, 10:49 pm
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Originally Posted by notquiteaff
There have also been tests ongoing in South Korea and China,

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/20/211884...d-19-treatment

And I think German physicians have been trying it, too, though I can’t find the article right now.
Informal tests are likely wherever doctors on the frontline are infected and become critical (intubation). Their colleagues would be the first to sign off. Anecdotal, but direct from physicians we know .
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Old Mar 24, 2020, 12:15 am
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Originally Posted by Boggie Dog
Wasn't hydroxychloroquine and zithromax used in combination? Not sure of the dosing regime needed.
There's a few different things going around being tried. The initial hype over chloroquine is the thing out of France showing in vitro effects on decreasing viral replication. However it remains to be seen what the effect is in large scale human trials (since things in vivo and in vitro often behave differently).

There was a physician group who had reported treating ~300 patients with hydroxychloroquine x5 days and a zpack (azithro x5 days). In that group they had no hospitalizations, no intubations, no deaths. Obviously wasn't random/controlled, but on first look glance something to trial further.

For hydroxychloroquine alone, the university of MN has started a clinical trial to see if used as post-exposure prophylaxis for 3 days if it can prevent an exposed person from developing COVID19.

Originally Posted by cockpitvisit
Just a question from someone with no clue. Can Hydroxychloroquine be mass produced to treat everyone who needs it, or is it one of those medicines with a very limited supply and a crazily expensive production?
Yes. It has been around for decades and is used in some patients for rheumatoid arthritis and lupus treatments. Currently costs ~$25 for a months worth of dose for those taking it prior to the COVID outbreak. The dosing regime being proposed/trialed is far less than what a monthly user is taking. Of course, this is all dependent on the treatment actually shaking out as we continue doing trials of it.
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Old Mar 24, 2020, 1:19 am
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Originally Posted by notquiteaff
I think it depends on where you are. And as more and more people are discovering the services (especially older people who may not have been as savvy with using food and grocery delivery services), the dates keep getting pushed out. Right now I could get delivery on Thursday morning from Instacart.

Instacart today announced that they want to hire 300,000 grocery shoppers.
Good point, and perhaps direct delivery with the store may be more effective, Instacart and Shipt are overwhelmed.
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Old Mar 24, 2020, 1:27 am
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So, who sells and prescribes all these experimental meds to people with no need, just in case, preemptively, leading to drug shortages? Is it the manufacturer or the doctors going rogue for profit?
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Old Mar 24, 2020, 2:11 am
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Originally Posted by trueblu
I'm not convinced we should be testing minimally symptomatic individuals, since I think we are well past full containment. I think we need to encourage practices (e.g. cloth mask wearing) by everyone to minimise transmission from minimally symptomatic individuals.
I felt the same way until I got back to London. The reason why I think we need to drastically increase community testing to identify minimally/asymptomatic people (who are likely to be infectious) is because people are not adhering to government guidelines to stay at home. This morning I read reports of yet another day where tube trains were packed. I am sure we will still see dozens of people milling around the capital. Our police force will not be able to enforce and the guidelines are still extremely woolly (can exercise once per day but where and for how long? What is "essential" travel for work?)

Identifying positive cases makes it personal. People who are asymptomatic/minimally symptomatic simply do not get that they are the people fuelling this pandemic. Once someone knows they are infectious with COVID-19 they will be much more likely to adhere to isolation. Yes, serology will be more helpful in the long run but it will be some time (several weeks, an eternity in this pandemic) before it can be implemented at scale.

Quite frankly, if we are going to get people to adhere to isolation then we need to scare them into doing so by telling them they are COVID-19 positive.

Edit: to add further thoughts.

The more ordinary people in the community are aware of their COVID-19 status, the more effective suppression strategies will be.

If you are COVID-19 PCR positive and selfish, you will be scared of dying and so will stay at home and rest until you are completely better

If you are COVID-19 PCR positive and altruistic, you will be scared of infecting others and so will stay at home to isolate

If you are COVID-19 PCR negative and selfish, you will probably be aware of many other people who are positive (because they have been tested) and be scared of catching it and so will stay at home

If you are COVID-19 PCR negative and altruistic, you will be told the test is not sensitive and stay at home to prevent unknowingly spreading it

I think this is why other countries with more widespread testing have been successful. Partly it is contact tracing and isolation but I think partly it is behavioural modification. Getting tested and knowing your COVID-19 status (whether positive or negative) really makes it personal and people are much more inclined to stay it home if they know close contacts who are confirmed positive cases (e.g. family or friends)
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Last edited by doctoravios; Mar 24, 2020 at 3:19 am Reason: Add further discussion
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Old Mar 24, 2020, 2:16 am
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Last edited by GUWonder; Mar 24, 2020 at 2:56 am
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Old Mar 24, 2020, 2:21 am
  #1511  
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Originally Posted by nk15
So, who sells and prescribes all these experimental meds to people with no need, just in case, preemptively, leading to drug shortages? Is it the manufacturer or the doctors going rogue for profit?
The manufacturer of remdesivir, Gilead Sciences, is putting restrictions on the dispensing of the drug because of the demand. It wants most of the drug to go to clinical trials rather than "compassionate-use" requests that have overwhelmed them since Trump mentioned it. It is still an experimental drug, not yet marketed, so that makes sense.
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Old Mar 24, 2020, 5:14 am
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Originally Posted by QtownDave
Now, scientists from Bauhaus University in Weimar have revealed exactly what happens when we cough, and why it’s wise to stay home even if you don’t think you have the virus.

The team filmed a man coughing using a method called the Schlieren Method, which reveals air flow in incredible detail.

In the video, the man can be seen coughing in six ways - normal breathing, coughing, coughing into hand, coughing into sleeve, coughing into a dust mask and coughing into a medical mask.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/science/cor...s-how-21738511
​​​​​
University page (in German):
https://www.uni-weimar.de/de/univers...uft-ausbreite/


University's video upload to Vimeo (in 720p):
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Old Mar 24, 2020, 5:31 am
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Originally Posted by narvik
​​​​​
University's video upload to Vimeo (in 720p):
I'm especially impressed at the "Coughing into sleeve" effectiveness. Not that we didn't know it works, but nice to see it visually.

Also surprised at the BIG difference of "Coughing into dust mask" vs. "Coughing into surgical mask". Would be nice to know which type dust mask was used, exactly. My guess is FFP1 (no-valve), but this information is sadly missing from what I can tell.
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Old Mar 24, 2020, 5:50 am
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One thing is certain about masks. They contribute to social distancing. I found an old and long-forgotten box of N95 masks in my workshop. They are most certainly expired but I wore one to do some grocery shopping and no one came near me.
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Old Mar 24, 2020, 6:44 am
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I think this is why other countries with more widespread testing have been successful. Partly it is contact tracing and isolation but I think partly it is behavioural modification. Getting tested and knowing your COVID-19 status (whether positive or negative) really makes it personal and people are much more inclined to stay it home if they know close contacts who are confirmed positive cases (e.g. family or friends)
As more tests are available, less symptomatic people will be tested.
But, they need to realize that the PCR nasopharyngeal swab test expired the moment it was taken. They could have been infected while they are waiting for results and the negative results would still be a detriment to public health overall because everyone will have a degree of behavior change after a negative test no matter how scared they are of catching this.
Also, a very low viral load, and poor test collection are two reasons for false negatives. More likely to be magnified in asymptomatic individuals.

Antibody testing in blood is the way to go for asymptomatic individuals.
If your IgG is positive it is likely past infection, and if your IgM is positive it is likely present infection but both would need a follow up nasopharyngeal swab PCR to determine current infectivity.

We need to start establishing a cohort of people who are immune so they go back to work with confidence that they are immune from this.
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