Mar 11, 2020, 10:13 am
Last edit by: Ocn Vw 1K
In order to reduce noise in the Coronavirus / Covid-19 : general fact-based reporting thread, and to create a central place to invite any member to ask a basic question about the impact of COVID-19 on travel, your moderators have decided to open this separate "lounge" thread for related discussion that isn't strictly fact-based reporting.
Any member who can provide a constructive, helpful answer to a question; or post constructively in reply to a member's point-of-view, is welcome to post.
All FT rules apply, including avoiding personalized, snarky, political, other off-topic, commercial, and repeatedly disruptive content.
Discussion of general economic impacts of Covid-19 belongs in the OMNI forum, not here.
Discussion and critique of political/government actions to aid the economy or which is far more political than related to COVID-19 is for the OMNI/PR forum, not here.
This is a protocol for posting adopted by the forum Moderator team:Please follow this protocol, based on FlyerTalk Rules and long-standing FlyerTalk best practices. Doing so will help keep the thread open, and allow our moderator team to aid members, rather than having to resort to discipline.
Constructive, respectful posts, views, opinions, questions, and replies, related to the topic are welcome. Avoid commenting on members personally, or posting off-topic or political messages.
While respectful disagreement of a posted view is allowed, dont call-out posters to prove their points. FlyerTalk has never required discussion standards at the level of a Ph.D. dissertation defense, or a trial court witness cross-examination.
After a reasonable exchange of views on a point, please yield the floor so that others may bring up different topics, questions or points.
Especially important in this time of pandemic, when normal life and travel have been upended: please take regular breaks from the thread.
Please stay healthy,
your FT Coronavirus and Travel Moderator Team.
Any member who can provide a constructive, helpful answer to a question; or post constructively in reply to a member's point-of-view, is welcome to post.
All FT rules apply, including avoiding personalized, snarky, political, other off-topic, commercial, and repeatedly disruptive content.
Discussion of general economic impacts of Covid-19 belongs in the OMNI forum, not here.
Discussion and critique of political/government actions to aid the economy or which is far more political than related to COVID-19 is for the OMNI/PR forum, not here.
This is a protocol for posting adopted by the forum Moderator team:Please follow this protocol, based on FlyerTalk Rules and long-standing FlyerTalk best practices. Doing so will help keep the thread open, and allow our moderator team to aid members, rather than having to resort to discipline.
Constructive, respectful posts, views, opinions, questions, and replies, related to the topic are welcome. Avoid commenting on members personally, or posting off-topic or political messages.
While respectful disagreement of a posted view is allowed, dont call-out posters to prove their points. FlyerTalk has never required discussion standards at the level of a Ph.D. dissertation defense, or a trial court witness cross-examination.
After a reasonable exchange of views on a point, please yield the floor so that others may bring up different topics, questions or points.
Especially important in this time of pandemic, when normal life and travel have been upended: please take regular breaks from the thread.
Please stay healthy,
your FT Coronavirus and Travel Moderator Team.
COVID-19: Lounge thread for thoughts, concerns and questions
Mar 14, 2020, 9:32 pm
#511
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 765
theres zero chance that is the mortality rate. People need to learn the definition of a case (someone who has tested positive and been diagnosed) and thus what CFR is. The healthcare system in Italy is at capacity and there is no chance they are going around testing people with no symptoms or minor symptoms. So it obviously follows that the CFR will be higher than somewhere with a few tens or hundreds of cases, where more of the minor infections have the potential to be diagnosed and thus recorded as a case. This does not mean that the real mortality rate of the disease in Italy is that high.
Mar 14, 2020, 9:33 pm
#512
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My personal prediction is that we will have half-measures in the next couple of days, and by Friday the latest most jurisdictions in the US would have moved to at least partial, if not full lockdown. Which it will still be too little too late, full lockdown should happen now across the country with federal guidance.
Last edited by nk15; Mar 14, 2020 at 9:41 pm
Mar 14, 2020, 9:35 pm
#513
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Location: Bay Area
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If there's no lifetime immunity, that is going to be a huge deal.
Mar 14, 2020, 9:40 pm
#514
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Yes, and it would have extensive authority that cannot be overridden by the administration, and will be accountable only to the congressional bipartisan committee.
Mar 14, 2020, 9:44 pm
#515
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Did China (Wuhan, specifically) have a strong grocery delivery system? Services obviously exist here in the US, but where I live they are certainly not at a scale that it could overnight replace grocery shopping trips. I have seen news reports of the National Guard delivering food to homes in New Rochelle NY, but that isnt going to scale, certainly not overnight (and people will worry/whine that they dont get the food they like... or perhaps actually need for dietary reasons).
Mar 14, 2020, 9:50 pm
#516
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Did China (Wuhan, specifically) have a strong grocery delivery system? Services obviously exist here in the US, but where I live they are certainly not at a scale that it could overnight replace grocery shopping trips. I have seen news reports of the National Guard delivering food to homes in New Rochelle NY, but that isn’t going to scale, certainly not overnight (and people will worry/whine that they don’t get the food they like... or perhaps actually need for dietary reasons).
Mar 14, 2020, 10:00 pm
#517
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I'm not sure whether such extreme measures are necessary if strict social distancing (short of actual apartment-building confinement) is undertaken earlier-on in the spread of the pandemic. I don't know, but I'm not aware of Hong Kong, South Korea or Singapore undertaking such measures, and their viral spread seems to be declining or relatively flat. And I'm not aware of whether other Chinese cities have implemented such measures either.
China locked down Wuhan on Jan 23 (reports talk about travel lockdown; not sure when exactly restrictions on moving within the city for shopping, work were imposed).
At that time there were 17 deaths and 600 identified cases. And what was the result of the drastic measures taken in Wuhan/Hubei? Nearly 70k cases and 3000+ deaths.
Compare that to where WA is today: 40 deaths, 642 identified cases.
...
Mar 14, 2020, 10:06 pm
#518
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The airlines/agents are acting like the guy selling $100 gallon jugs of water after a hurricane. 
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/12/t...ban-paris.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/12/t...ban-paris.html
Mar 14, 2020, 10:09 pm
#519
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 38,417
What a joke. It's not possible to make a pizza with no humans touching it or being in the same room as it. Well I suppose if the cooks and the driver are wearing hazmat suits.
As if putting the pizza on the doorstep instead of handing it to you will make any difference.
This is just one example of what happens when people panic and rush to make up stupid idiotic "solutions". It's just as useless as Jim Bakker's fake coronavirus cure that he got slapped for.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/jim-b...b691b525f027c0
As if putting the pizza on the doorstep instead of handing it to you will make any difference.
This is just one example of what happens when people panic and rush to make up stupid idiotic "solutions". It's just as useless as Jim Bakker's fake coronavirus cure that he got slapped for.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/jim-b...b691b525f027c0
Quit thinking only of yourself, short of total isolation the best protection everyone has is to minimize the spread in society. The fewer sick people the less likely you are to encounter one.
Mar 14, 2020, 10:15 pm
#520
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Join Date: Jun 2005
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Under normal circumstances ,taking an antibody test ( to show a previous infection) would lessen some of the anxiety, and perhaps speed economic recovery , as those with a positive result ( reflecting exposure and recovery, presumably in the context of a mild infection, and some level of immunity) could return to more normal activities sooner, and without apprehension.
Mar 14, 2020, 10:22 pm
#521
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This weekend, I’ve seen more and more social media chatter about urging people to “avoid travel,” “avoid large gatherings,” “don’t go to bars,” etc. My anecdotal evidence suggests these types of heeding aren’t being widely followed. It seems likely that more strict regulations will be attempted by states and cities over the next week or so.
Last edited by Loren Pechtel; Mar 14, 2020 at 10:29 pm
Mar 14, 2020, 10:48 pm
#522
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Germany
Posts: 3,848
Also, Japan doesn't seem to have a lock down, but their number of infections "only" grows by 10% per day, which is half of our grow rate here. I am not sure Japan has any measures in place apart from everyone wearing masks.
Mar 14, 2020, 11:05 pm
#523
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the hypothesis is that temperature affects infection (transmission). There is an unknown and variable delay between infection and recording as a case. In particular that delay can vary a lot between different places. This, temperature vs. number of cases is a deeply problematic - I would say almost useless - statistic.
Past experiences with other coronaviruses suggested a relationship. Since it is difficult to imagine transmission affecting temperature, the empirical evidence of thse other viruses suggests temperature influences transmission. We are eagerly waiting to see if this is also true with COVID-19 viruses. I was pleased to see one decent attempt (the paper mentioned in the above post) to support this relationship. I do not have time to ask for the details of the original data or to review the statistical significance, but the work looks solid.
Mar 14, 2020, 11:16 pm
#524
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 1,512
Japans main method of halting the epidemic seems to be not testing many people, its not an approach many people feel is particularly well thought out.
that said, I do think that the approaches that countries like Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong have taken are a good way forward, real changes but getting in early before its too late and before everything needs to be shut down. Im hoping it isnt to late that my country, Australia, to follow that approach, seems to me that the USA and Western Europe is probably too far gone for that now.
that said, I do think that the approaches that countries like Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong have taken are a good way forward, real changes but getting in early before its too late and before everything needs to be shut down. Im hoping it isnt to late that my country, Australia, to follow that approach, seems to me that the USA and Western Europe is probably too far gone for that now.
Mar 15, 2020, 12:15 am
#525
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 3,033
I’m looking forward to clearer evidence on whether Covid infection confers immunity — even 1-2 years’ worth — on those who recover from it.
I’m roughly 30. If the projections are correct and the U.S. doesn’t enjoy some fortuitous China-like drop in infections,* I figure about half of my generation will contract the disease within the next year. But I’m also worried about the potential for care of older Americans — 60+ — to be strained when the virus hits its peak. And by “care,” I mean things like home food and medicine delivery and basic medical care to become limited as normal caregivers are themselves incapacitated or recruited to help overburdened hospitals.
I wonder if one potential solution to that problem is for governments to recruit those who have recovered, and thus (hopefully) enjoy immunity, to pick up the slack in a volunteer or low-pay capacity. Perhaps this could be accomplished through the national guard, or via some civilian corps to be established by the states. (Based on what I’ve seen so far, the states seem more willing and organized to confront this virus than the federal government.)
A Civilian Conservation Corps-style body could even be set up to coordinate such a force. And, as an economic measure, it could pay those — restaurant and food-service workers, hotel staff, Uber/Lyft drivers and others whose businesses will plummet — to fulfill those roles. I think a disproportionate share of those workers are younger, meaning they’ll be more likely to recover quickly from the disease. Consider it both a public health effort and a gig-economy bailout.
Of course, this depends in large part on whether Covid grants immunity. But if it does, I hope such a program would be viable.
*One hypothesis, mentioned by another poster, that I’m hopeful about is the notion that very-low-grade exposure confers limited immunity, such that millions of Americans could enjoy a natural vaccine without becoming symptomatic or infectious. If that other poster is right, this may explain the lack of an apparent reignition of the virus in Wuhan as people start to head back to work.
I’m roughly 30. If the projections are correct and the U.S. doesn’t enjoy some fortuitous China-like drop in infections,* I figure about half of my generation will contract the disease within the next year. But I’m also worried about the potential for care of older Americans — 60+ — to be strained when the virus hits its peak. And by “care,” I mean things like home food and medicine delivery and basic medical care to become limited as normal caregivers are themselves incapacitated or recruited to help overburdened hospitals.
I wonder if one potential solution to that problem is for governments to recruit those who have recovered, and thus (hopefully) enjoy immunity, to pick up the slack in a volunteer or low-pay capacity. Perhaps this could be accomplished through the national guard, or via some civilian corps to be established by the states. (Based on what I’ve seen so far, the states seem more willing and organized to confront this virus than the federal government.)
A Civilian Conservation Corps-style body could even be set up to coordinate such a force. And, as an economic measure, it could pay those — restaurant and food-service workers, hotel staff, Uber/Lyft drivers and others whose businesses will plummet — to fulfill those roles. I think a disproportionate share of those workers are younger, meaning they’ll be more likely to recover quickly from the disease. Consider it both a public health effort and a gig-economy bailout.
Of course, this depends in large part on whether Covid grants immunity. But if it does, I hope such a program would be viable.
*One hypothesis, mentioned by another poster, that I’m hopeful about is the notion that very-low-grade exposure confers limited immunity, such that millions of Americans could enjoy a natural vaccine without becoming symptomatic or infectious. If that other poster is right, this may explain the lack of an apparent reignition of the virus in Wuhan as people start to head back to work.
EDIT: CDC says this.
Originally Posted by CDC
Q: Can people who recover from COVID-19 be infected again?
A: The immune response to COVID-19 is not yet understood. Patients with MERS-CoV infection are unlikely to be re-infected shortly after they recover, but it is not yet known whether similar immune protection will be observed for patients with COVID-19.
A: The immune response to COVID-19 is not yet understood. Patients with MERS-CoV infection are unlikely to be re-infected shortly after they recover, but it is not yet known whether similar immune protection will be observed for patients with COVID-19.
EDIT2: One more link to our very own trueblu's excellent post on the subject of immunity, which seems a bit contradictory to what the CDC says. Anyway, thanks trueblu! Your posts on this thread are super enlightening.
Last edited by abcx; Mar 15, 2020 at 1:00 am